Analysis

Pre-Camp “Links Of The Week”

July 20, 2014, by 14 comments

Training camp is oh-so-close now and we are all excited about the new heights our coverage will reach this year, but first let’s do some house cleaning and see what others are saying around the web:

 

 

Worst to first: can it happen in the NFC North in 2014?

July 16, 2014, by 21 comments

While some teams have already established themselves as Super Bowl contenders, the Minnesota Vikings are looking to climb up from the cellar of the NFC North to playoff contenders. A surprise rise from divisional worst to first is not as improbable as you might think.

Parity is at an extreme in the NFL. For eleven consecutive seasons at least one team who finished last in their division turned things around to capture the divisional title the very next year. As a matter of fact, the worst to first campaign has happened 15 times in the NFL since 2003.

Last season the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles both went from the bottom to the top in the first season under a new coaching staff. Will the Vikings follow their lead this season?

Eight NFL teams have a crack at the worst to first feat. Buffalo, Cleveland, Houston, Minnesota, Oakland, St. Louis, Tampa Bay and Washington face the unenviable challenge of trying to keep the consecutive streak alive. I’m not an odds maker, but I certainly think the Vikings have as good as any chance to pull it off.

So, who was the last NFC North team to go from worst to first? The Chicago Bear did it in 2005. Quarterback Rex Grossman spent most of his first 3 seasons sidelined with injuries and Kyle Orton, a 4th round rookie from Purdue, took the reins in week 2 and lead the Bears all the way to the playoffs. Orton’s play wasn’t the real story behind the Bears’ rise to the top. The defensive unit lead by second year defensive coordinator Ron Rivera made major improvements to finish 2nd in the league in yards per game after being ranked 21st in that category in 2004. The 2005 Bears’ defense also climbed all the way to 1st in points allowed.

If the Vikings aspire to finish on top of the NFC North this season, an improved defense under new head coach Mike Zimmer is an absolute must. And one of the biggest keys to improving the Vikings defense will be finding a way to keep Xavier Rhodes and Harrison Smith healthy and on the field for most of the season.

A new coaching staff and fresh concepts on the defensive side of the ball, plus personnel acquisitions like DT Linval Joseph, CB Captain Munnerlyn and first round draft pick LB Anthony Barr have me optimistic that the Vikings’ defensive struggles are in the rear view mirror.

I’m not expecting a top ten D right out of the gate in 2014, but Zimmer has enough young talent to take a leap forward very quickly. Most Vikings fans have high hopes that sooner or later Zimmer will have the defense ranked near the top of the NFL leader board… and my fingers are crossed for sooner rather than later.

 

2014 Minnesota Vikings Draft Profile: Antone Exum

July 15, 2014, by 3 comments

[Editor's note: This is another GIF-heavy article from Darren Page. Previously, some readers have indicated that they have had trouble loading pages that have this many GIFs embedded at once, so a mobile-friendly version with the GIFs implemented as links instead of embedded images is available here - Arif]

The Minnesota Vikings made their first of multiple secondary selections by drafting Virginia Tech’s Antone Exum in the sixth round of the 2014 NFL Draft.

Exum started 32 games between both the safety and cornerback positions going into his senior season at Virginia Tech.  A torn ACL and lateral meniscus in his right knee suffered during a pick-up basketball game cut into his final season in Blacksburg. He would return for two full games in 2013 as a shell of himself. An ankle injury suffered against Miami in his third start ended his season.

The shame of it was that Exum was coming off a heralded junior year in which he was named second team All-ACC in a talented group of cornerbacks that included current Viking Xavier Rhodes. Exum led the Hokies with five interceptions. He also logged 48 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, 16 pass break-ups, two forced fumbles, and one fumble recovery.

Exum won time at both free safety and a “rover” position during the 2011 season. He was technically a safety ever since he arrived at Virginia Tech, only platooning at cornerback the one season. That experience at safety will be important, because Exum is listed as a safety for the Vikings.

Let’s dig into the meat of Exum’s cornerback play in 2012 and translate it to safety play before looking at how the Vikings may plan on using him.

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LINKS OF THE WEEK: Camp Draws Nearer

July 10, 2014, by 1 comment

For the most part, this is the time of year when “no news is good news” and the Vikings are doing a great job of (knock on wood) staying out of the headlines for all of the wrong reasons.  The lack of TMZ stories about our players can’t be a bad thing.  Training camp is drawing nearer and here is everything going on around the net:

VT Talkers Episode 1 – The Minnesota “Blank”

July 9, 2014, by 26 comments

It has been too long. I won’t bore you with reasons for my absence as none of the excuses are legitimate. Instead, I want to jump right back into being a more involved writer here at Vikings Territory. There have been quite a few things happening behind the scenes here at VT. We’ve definitely evolved in the quality and quantity of content. Above and beyond that, a complete redesign of the entire site should be making its way to all of you soon.

Enough of that, though.

We’re going to start a new reoccurring post here at Vikings Territory. It’s a pretty simple concept. Every week or so I will host various people out there on the interwebs and ask them a series of questions for them to respond to. The questions may be regarding a recent Vikings news talker. It might be an off-the-wall question that has nothing to do with the Vikings. Sometimes there may be a theme to the questions. Other times there won’t. Who knows? Quite honestly, it’s going to be whatever I think is fun and interesting that particular week. I do know that I will try and keep the questions light hearted and the responses blunt.

It won’t always be the same people. And it won’t always be writers from here at VT. We will try and mix it up and have an array of different people join in on the fun. And after our guests have provided their responses, I will end each question with a response of my own. There are two rules to make things more interesting:

  1. Responses must be less than 140 words. If the responder goes slightly over this boundary, they aren’t disqualified or anything. This isn’t a contest. Really, the restriction is to simplify things a little big and get a straight-forward answer.
  2. There are “Unacceptable Answers.” I will decide what these are on a case-by-case basis. Typically, I will try and think of answers that I deem unworthy. (Primarily because they don’t really answer the question.)

With that being said, let’s get to it. As it is the first installment of this post, I wanted to keep things in house. This week our guests are everyone’s favorite Vikings blogger Adam Warwas and our beloved Vikings super brain, Arif Hasan.

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Vikings Territory Fantasy Football Projections—Working Backwards from Game Scripts

July 7, 2014, by 1 comment

Soon you’ll notice a “fantasy projections” page now at Vikings Territory at the top (UPDATE: It’s up at the top now!), which is my attempt to provide preseason predictions for every relevant fantasy player in the league. As with most projections out there, there’s a strong statistical approach with rigor and history applied, followed by completely subjective modifications that ruin the whole point of rigorous statistics. Even more precariously, the statistical approach is relatively untested and openly experimental.

I wouldn’t necessarily stake my fantasy league on these projections if I were you, but I think it’s a good experiment to see if a game script-centric approach is one worth pursuing. If you don’t want to read the thoughts behind the process, just take a look at the projections for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends directly. They should change as the offseason progresses. There’s going to be some interesting numbers in there. If anything seems off, it’s probably misperception on my part, but I’ll just blame the model.

 

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2014 Minnesota Vikings Draft Profile: David Yankey

July 6, 2014, by 4 comments

The Minnesota Vikings made an anticipated offensive guard selection by drafting Stanford’s David Yankey in the fifth round.

Yankey was widely regarded as the standout performer on the supremely talented Stanford offensive line from each of the last two seasons. He started at left guard in 2011, was moved out to left tackle and did a fine job in 2012, then moved back inside to left guard in 2013.

A dud of a showing at the Scouting Combine has been pointed to as the reason for Yankey’s slide to the third day of the draft. He did forego a year of collegiate eligibility after all. The reasons must go beyond just below average athleticism.

Without further ado, let’s dig into why Yankey received all kinds of plaudits as a collegiate player and even as a prospect but also why he may have ended up so far down the draft board.

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