Vikings Just Got the Worst Possible Forecast

Vikings fans react during the game against the Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Minnesota Vikings fans react during second-quarter action against the Green Bay Packers on December 29, 2024, at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images.

The Minnesota Vikings’ 2025 offseason has been all about enthusiasm and dreaming big, mainly because the club will hand the QB1 baton to J.J. McCarthy.

Bleacher Report unveiled a brutal 2025 prediction for the Vikings, placing them in a naughty spot for NFC North predictions. Cannot please them all.

Fans are stoked about the new era.

But not everyone agrees with the Vikings’ path to 2025 glory. Bleacher Report published an article this week detailing predictions for every last-place division finisher, and in the NFC North, Minnesota got the call.

It’s an NFC North Basement Prediction for the Vikings

Someone had to finish last, and BR says it’ll be Minnesota.

J.J. McCarthy takes part in OTA practice at the Vikings' facility.
Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy participates in 2025 OTA drills at the TCO Performance Center. McCarthy was selected in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft but missed his rookie season due to a torn meniscus. Mandatory Credit: Minnesota Vikings.

Bleacher Report Picks Vikings for Last Place

Oddsmakers believe the purple team will finish in third place, surviving the Chicago Bears in the cellar.

But BR’s Moe Moton disagreed: “The Minnesota Vikings will go from one of the league’s biggest surprise playoff teams in 2024 to a disappointing squad this year. Though head coach Kevin O’Connell has proved himself to be a quality play-caller, he can’t wave a magic wand to expedite first-year starter J.J. McCarthy’s development.”

“The 22-year-old is coming off a lost rookie year in which he needed multiple surgeries to repair a torn meniscus from last August. He has to get back into playing shape while building a rapport with his teammates. The Vikings have the supporting cast to help McCarthy’s learning curve with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson in the pass-catching group.”

The Vikings basically tailor-made a team around McCarthy. The surrounding cast, from head to toe, couldn’t be much better on paper.

Moton continued, “Minnesota attempted to strengthen the offensive line by adding rookie first-round guard Donovan Jackson, four-time Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly and guard Will Fries. The defense may be better than last year’s unit that ranked fifth in scoring and 16th in total yards with Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave on the front line.”

“However, McCarthy’s inexperience could cost the Vikings some games against formidable opponents. Since he became head coach, O’Connell’s rushing offenses have ranked 19th or worse. Without a complementary ground game, the QB could struggle through the first half of the season before he finds his rhythm. The Vikings will hover around .500 until McCarthy makes significant strides.”

Right about the Rushing Offense

Moton is correct about the rushing offense. A Kevin O’Connell-led team won’t reach its zenith until the offense runs the ball efficiently.

Aaron Jones looks on from the sideline during Vikings vs. Falcons.
Minnesota running back Aaron Jones (33) watches from the sideline during the fourth quarter of a December 8, 2024, matchup against the Atlanta Falcons at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images.

Ranking 27th per rushing offense in 2022 and 2023, the unit rose seven spots to the 20th-best per DVOA in 2024, so the club is trending optimally.

Now, O’Connell and Co. must climb into the Top 15 or higher via rushing efficiency. Otherwise, the team will be stuck in a pass-happy loop that rarely wins Super Bowls.

Probably Wrong On the Whole

The leading piece of evidence that Minnesota can avoid Moton’s prediction? Simple — look at the past.

O’Connell won 14 games last year with Sam Darnold, who many labeled as a “bust” long before he tried on purple and gold for size.

Everything clicked last year, and the Vikings outscored opponents by roughly 5-6 points per game, the NFL’s eighth-highest point differential. Close games didn’t flood into box scores, and more often than not, Minnesota won convincingly. They weren’t a fluky squad now staring down regression in 2025.

If Darnold could win 14 games, can’t McCarthy win enough to avoid last place?

A Vicious NFC North

On the other hand, if one assumes the Chicago Bears will markedly improve this season, the NFC North has no stinky teams. In years past, the Lions and Bears often struggled simultaneously, allowing themselves to be punching bags for the Vikings and Packers.

Frank Ragnow prepares to snap the ball against the Vikings.
Detroit Lions center Frank Ragnow (77) lines up against Minnesota during first-half action on January 5, 2025, at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-Imagn Images.

Those days are long gone, and most pundits consider the NFC North the most challenging division in football.

Sam Darnold’s Team Chosen for Last Place Too

Moton wrote critically of Darnold’s team, as well. Darnold led the Vikings last year to a 14-3 record, parlaying his reclamation season into a $100 million contract out in Seattle.

It’s just that Moton believes Seattle is heading toward the NFC West’s cellar: “The Seahawks replaced Grubb with Klint Kubiak, who should be an upgrade, considering head coach Mike Macdonald wants to run the ball effectively. Kubiak likely learned the intricacies of developing a productive ground game from his father, Gary.”

“However, Seattle signed Sam Darnold and Cooper Kupp to fill voids at quarterback and wide receiver, respectively. Darnold must prove his 2024 Pro Bowl year with the Vikings wasn’t a fluke and his journeyman years are behind him. Meanwhile, Kupp has to stay healthy. He’s missed 18 games over the last two years, at least five in each of the previous three seasons.”

Sam Darnold throws a pass during the Vikings preseason game vs. the Raiders.
Minnesota quarterback Sam Darnold (14) launches a pass during the first quarter of a preseason game against the Las Vegas Raiders on August 10, 2024, at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports.

Seattle can somewhat easily move on from Darnold next offseason if the experiment goes pear-shaped.

Moton added, “Macdonald, an accomplished defensive play-caller, should be able to field a top-10 scoring and total defense with All-Pro/Pro Bowl players and budding talent on all three levels of the unit. Yet he may not be satisfied with his offense in consecutive terms.”

“Darnold will regress behind an offensive line with question marks on the interior, resulting in Seattle taking a slight step back in the standings in a seven- or eight-win campaign.”

Moton’s two last-place teams, the Vikings and Seahawks, will battle in Seattle on November 30th.


Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily ... More about Dustin Baker