The Plot Thickens on Jalen Nailor’s Future
NFL free agency is eight weeks away, and among the Minnesota Vikings’ main decisions in the offseason, the franchise must decide whether to re-sign wide receiver Jalen Nailor or let him hit the open market. And to start the offseason, there’s a discrepancy surrounding Nailor’s market value: one source predicts a small next contract, while evidence from the contracts of Nailor’s WR peers suggests much more.
Minnesota may like Nailor’s big-play bursts and still balk at the price tag, especially with a Day 2 rookie waiting in the wings.
It’s probably a safer bet to assume that Nailor will leave the Vikings, but here’s a look at the pricing situation.
What a Jalen Nailor Contract Could Look Like
Is Nailor worth $5 million or $10 million — or right in the middle?
Spotrac’s Estimated Market Value for Nailor
Before each annual free agency, Spotrac estimates players’ next contracts, mainly for notable or semi-prominent players.
For Nailor in 2026, that website dropped a $4.7 million estimated market value. Nailor arguably had a higher figure in the eyes of fans before Spotrac’s evaluation, though Spotrac isn’t necessarily the Bible for sports contracts.
Minnesota drafted Nailor in Round 6 of the 2022 NFL Draft, standing out as one of the only decent performers from his class. Recently, when asked about Nailor’s future, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has sounded noncommittal, instead referencing the “economic realities” of team-building during the offseason.
But according to Spotrac, Nailor is an approximately five-million-dollar man.
Other Nailor-Like WRs Got Much More in 2025
Last year, the Los Angeles Rams paid wide receiver Tutu Atwell — a WR3 or WR4 type like Nailor — $10 million to stick around in 2025. His career numbers closely mirror Nailor’s.
And it’s not just Atwell. These wideouts earn $8 million or more per year:
- Rashod Bateman ($12.2)
- Dynami Brown ($10M)
- Josh Palmer ($10M)
- Curtis Samuel ($8M)
- Darius Slayton ($12M)
Nailor feels like he belongs somewhere near that wide receiver tier. Soon, the NFL market will agree or disagree.
Is Nailor Worth It?
Nailor glides on momentum spikes. When one hits, it feels fantastic and electric. Against the Dallas Cowboys last month, he tilted a game on a handful of snaps — 3 catches, 47 yards, 2 touchdowns — and for a moment, he looked a man barrelling toward a new contract with the Vikings.
Then the bottom dropped. No catches over the next two games. Against the New York Giants and Detroit Lions — nothing. Zoom out and the season shows a familiar shape: 29 receptions, 444 yards, 4 touchdowns. A year earlier, with Sam Darnold delivering mostly catchable throws, it was 414 yards and six scores.
That’s his profile. He’s a pass-catcher who punctuates a season with a flash or two, then drifts back into the scenery. Over time, Nailor’s math settles into WR4 output, even if he feels like the real deal in certain games.
What complicates the decision is J.J. McCarthy. Nailor is one of the few receivers he’s actually synced with, and that connection hasn’t materialized elsewhere. Through 10 career starts, McCarthy has not established the same rhythm with Justin Jefferson. The best moments of his season often came when Nailor was the target.
That matters, especially given how turbulent McCarthy’s early stretch was in 2025. Can the Vikings really let McCarthy’s favorite target just … leave?
Adofo-Mensah has already flagged the economic pressure points, and salary cap math gets complicated for receivers whose production arrives in bursts.
The Tai Felton Tidbit
Minnesota used a third-round pick in April on Felton, who barely touched the offense as a rookie. Adofo-Mensah passed on other notable immediate players — including a defensive secondary still short on long-term answers and running back Cam Skattebo — and took Felton out of Maryland. Through the early returns, his contributions have lived almost entirely on special teams. Of course, that has frustrated fans because 3rd-Round WRs should be somewhat game-ready.
The Viking Age‘s Brad Berreman noted on Felton last week, “All things considered, with what the Vikings’ quarterback situation became, maybe it was fine that Felton’s offensive role was so small as a rookie. He did get a few kickoff return opportunities, with a 25.4 yard average on seven returns.”
“Looking toward his second NFL season, Felton’s potential as a wide receiver remains intact. During his final collegiate season at Maryland, he had 96 receptions (four in FBS) for 1,124 yards and nine touchdowns. Over his last two seasons as a Terrapin, he averaged 12.8 yards per catch with 15 touchdowns.”
Despite his quiet rookie campaign, Felton’s selection signals a plan. Teams don’t spend Day 2 capital at wide receiver when they feel content with guys like Nailor.
It likely boils down to whether Nailor asks for $5 million — the Vikings can afford that — or $10 million. The latter may not be worth it.
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