Sam Darnold to Face the Moment That Crushed Him
Last year, the Minnesota Vikings, led by quarterback Sam Darnold, faced the Detroit Lions in Week 18 at Ford Field with a chance at homefield advantage throughout the postseason on the line. He melted down. This year, the Seattle Seahawks, now led by Darnold, face the San Francisco 49ers in Week 18 at Levi’s Stadium with a chance at homefield advantage throughout the postseason on the line. He can melt down — or find personal redemption.
After last year’s Week 18 faceplant in Minnesota, Darnold now walks into a similar pressure cooker with the Seahawks, and the stakes look just as unforgiving.
Darnold probably wondered all offseason when he might get a shot to prove the doubters wrong, and in a replica, the time has arrived.
Sam Darnold Gets Another Week 18 Stress Test
Darnold gets a familiar setup in Week 18.
Seahawks Take on 49ers for All the Homefield Marbles
There is no difference between Darnold’s 2024 Week 18 mission statement and the current version out in Seattle.
49ers.com’s Briana Jeanell wrote Sunday night, “Following the San Francisco 49ers Sunday Night Football victory over the Chicago Bears, game information for Week 18 is officially set. The NFC West title and the conference’s No. 1 seed will be decided on Saturday night in Santa Clara when the 49ers host the Seattle Seahawks at Levi’s Stadium.”
“With both teams winning their Week 17 contests, the regular-season finale now becomes a winner-take-all contest. The winning team will claim the NFC West title along with the conference’s top seed, securing a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. The losing team will still advance to the postseason as a Wild Card. In the event of a tie, Seattle would take the division title.”
A Bears win would have sealed the deal for Seattle’s No. 1 hopes, but Chicago didn’t quite have the magic to take down the 49ers.
So, it’s back to the scene of the crime — a Week 18 game to determine the No. 1 seed — for Darnold in Santa Clara.
The Disaster in 2024
The Vikings had everything on the line last January in Week 18. A chance to secure much-needed homefield advantage and skip Round 1 altogether, hoping to avoid a dreaded one-and-done playoff experience that beset the club in 2022.
Detroit certainly wasn’t an inferior opponent or anything close to it. Oddsmakers expected the Lions to win, too. But then the game started, and it became wickedly evident that Darnold had reverted to the caricature and meme of himself — the bust Sam Darnold.
He missed easy throws by his standard, held onto the ball in the pocket far too long, and generally performed ineptly. Darnold would up with a laughable QBR of 14.3, in line with how Max Brosmer has played this season. Total incompetence.
Minnesota lost 31-9, surrendered homefield advantage, and looked buffoonish along the way.
Two Consecutive Disasters, In Fact
Darnold got a shot to set the record straight the following week on the road against the Los Angeles Rams. The problem? He played even worse than his Week 18 debacle.
This time, Darnold posted a 12.0 QBR, even poorer than the week before. His Vikings lost 27-9, and a 14-win season had been wholly squandered due to trashy quarterback play and bad offensive line efficiency.
Free agency would hit two months later, and Darnold chose to sign in Seattle for $100.5 million over three years. He started the season like gangbusters, but has since slowed down, not unlike his 2024 showing.
Here’s the drop-off so far this season:
Sam Darnold,
EPA+CPOE,
NFL Ranking in 2025:
Week 1-9: 1st
Week 10-17: 21st
A fantastic Seattle defense has carried Darnold over the last two months, and the national media just kind of glosses over it, giving Darnold credit for “quarterback wins.”
Seahawks Favored By a Point
Seahawks at 49ers should be an epic showdown, not unlike Darnold’s experience last year: a game against a foremost division rival at their stadium for homefield advantage. It’s actually quite amazing how Darnold scripted this same situation.
Oddsmakers believe the Seahawks will win by a point, which is impressive given that the home team (San Francisco) is usually given a 2-3-point buffer.
12thManRising.com‘s Lior Lambert wrote Monday, “Seattle’s in first place entering their must-win bout with the 49ers, though that can change quite drastically at the drop of a hat. The Seahawks can finish as low as the No. 6 seed. This should highlight the significance of San Francisco taking down the Bears.”
“At least the Seahawks would’ve secured a home game on Wild Card Weekend if the Bears prevailed in San Francisco, but even that isn’t guaranteed. There are no additional perks or benefits for Seattle beyond securing their ticket to the postseason, which is crazy, considering their impressive 2025 record.”
The Vikings had the same stakes last year — win for homefield or get a road playoff game.
Lambert added, “It’s truly bizarre that a 13-win squad could be on the road to begin their path to Super Bowl LX, whether it’s the Seahawks or 49ers. That’s a byproduct of prioritizing division champions in seeding, which is a whole other story. However, for whatever it’s worth, Seattle’s Pro Bowl quarterback, Sam Darnold, was notably in a near-identical situation last year, albeit with a different club.”
“Darnold guided the Minnesota Vikings to a 14-3 campaign in 2024, which culminated in a wildly disappointing first-round loss to the Los Angeles Rams. He and the Seahawks will hope for better results if they’re dealt a similar hand. Nevertheless, the goal is to beat the Niners and avoid this issue entirely.”
It’s all in front of Darnold. The Week 18 game is tailor-made to repair his big-game reputation.
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