Vikings Path to the Playoffs Actually Still Exists
Is it likely that the Minnesota Vikings will reach the postseason, ending a sad streak of no playoff appearances in back-to-back years since 2008-2009? Absolutely not. Is it possible? Absolutely.
The Vikings’ path to the playoffs actually still exists, with a narrow but realistic set of scenarios that could keep Minnesota alive — until it is not.
Minnesota’s season has seven games left on the docket, and with a total about-face, the club could still sneak into the January tournament.
How the Vikings Can Still Reach the Postseason
Minnesota will have to change its ways and thread the needle.
A 6-1 Record Henceforth
If you want Minnesota to reach the postseason — you probably do if you’ve stumbled upon this article — the mission statement is as plain as the nose on your face: the Vikings can lose just one more game. That’s it.
A 9-8 record might get the club into the playoffs in a normal season, meaning, ordinarily, a “two more losses” threshold could be assigned. But not in 2025.
Nine NFC teams own winning records through 11 weeks. Minnesota has a 4-6 record, living in the 11th seed. It must orchestrate a win streak and only drop one more game in the next seven weeks against this schedule:
Week 12: at Green Bay Packers
Week 13: at Seattle Seahawks
Week 14: vs. Washington Commanders
Week 15: at Dallas Cowboys (SNF)
Week 16: at New York Giants
Week 17: vs. Detroit Lions
Week 18: vs. Green Bay Packers
That’s the only path. 6-1.
J.J. McCarthy’s Lightbulb Moment — Like Now
The caveat here is that one must assume that McCarthy turns the page into a productive quarterback this Sunday. Indeed, he has a wild and fantastic knack for creating game-winning drives, and that characteristic cannot be stripped from his resume.
But, believe it or not, the other 55 minutes matter, too.
It is unclear if a quarterback not named Josh Allen or Jared Goff can instantly fix all mechanics and become competent. The Vikings are working on that behind the scenes on it, rest assured.
For Minnesota to waltz into the playoffs, McCarthy must play competently.
A Flurry of Takeaways on Defense, Special Teams
In 2024, the Vikings ranked sixth-best leaguewide in turnover differential, yanking the ball away from opponents at an impressive and winning clip. They don’t do that anymore. They just don’t.
This go-round, with Minnesota needing to do everything to empower McCarthy, it now ranks second-to-last in turnover differential. Or — for simpler understanding — the 2024 Vikings intercepted 24 passes from opposing quarterbacks. This season? Three. They have three in 10 games.
The takeaways must flood into the box score as soon as this Sunday if Minnesota plans to salvage this once-promising season.
A Commitment to Running the Ball
Here’s the rushing offense math for Kevin O’Connell:
Vikings Rushing DVOA,
NFL Ranking,
in the Kevin O’Connell Era:
2022: 27th
2023: 27th
2024: 19th
2025: 14th
His team ranks in the Top 14 per rushing efficiency — but runs the ball the fourth-least in the NFL. O’Connell, very vividly and simply, is not running the ball enough. It’s the go-to counterpoint for a struggling quarterback, but Minnesota doesn’t do it. Or doesn’t do it enough.
The Vikings must run the ball in the next seven games. The ground game works; they don’t use it at all at a standard clip.
Elimination of the “Self-Inflicteds”
Meanwhile, Minnesota ranks 26th in penalties — in a bad way. The club fires up the seventh-most penalties in the business.
Thankfully, O’Connell mostly fixed that glitch last weekend against Chicago, but if he wants to make a run the rest of the way, the penalties must stay on the shelf. It’s the only way.
O’Connell calls these gaffes “self-inflicteds,” and other blunders, like allowing the Bears’ kick returner to get loose on the most important transaction of the game in Week 11, must be minimized.
Star Tribune‘s Mark Craig on the game-winning kick return: “The massive special teams breakdown that handed Bears All-Pro Devin Duvernay a 56-yard kickoff return to set up Chicago’s walk-off 48-yard field goal in Sunday’s 19-17 Vikings loss is something Vikings special teams coordinator Matt Daniels had been warning his players about.
“Three Vikings — Ivan Pace Jr. and rookies Austin Keys and Tai Felton — abandoned their lanes on the far left side of the front line and over-pursued to the right as Duvernay cut hard the other way and slipped through a big gap between rookie Tyler Batty to the inside and Thomas to the outside.”
Otherwise, Minnesota will fail to visit the playoffs, kickstarting an offseason with a bevy of serious questions.
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