The NFC North Is a 3-Horse Race
The final stretch is coming, and the field is finally getting sorted out with win, place, and show coming into focus.
Up until this week, it looked like any team could suddenly break out and take over the division, while others looked like they didn’t want to get out to a multiple-length lead. It really took until week 11 for the North to show who is for real and who’s in real trouble. While some are looking to reach the winner’s circle, there is one looking at a trip to the glue factory.
The NFC North is officially a three-horse race, with the Bears, Packers, and Lions battling for position as the division tightens heading into late 2025.
While things could completely go nuts up until the end, I think this race is about over. So, imagine you’re at Canterbury Park watching from the stands with your ticket in hand to see where your horse comes in.
NFC North Can Be Taken by One of Three Squads
On your AirPods, you’re listening to The Race Is On with either George Jones or Sawyer Brown singing it. The good thing about calling the game or the race is that Paul Allen calls both.
Vikings vs Bears
This is the story of pride in the backstretch and heartache on the inside. This game could have gone either way, but I was sure the Vikings would get the win after the way they played against the Lions with a win a few weeks ago.
Even though they lost to the Ravens and the Eagles, they still put up some bright spots, mostly on defense and special teams. The offense didn’t need to get red hot. They just needed to get warm on that side of the ball.
The Bears have been winning close games lately, gaining confidence in themselves and in Caleb Williams as he develops. Kevin O’Connell’s offense has been struggling all year with backups at every position, but that is no longer an issue or an excuse. Only Blake Brandel is still filling in for Ryan Kelly at center, but he has played relatively well and hasn’t been viewed as a detriment.
Brian Flores has the defense playing well, as they continually hold teams to three-and-outs or at least only 3 points. The offense has been a sputtering mess with occasional bright spots that are losing their shine with every loss.
On Sunday, J.J. McCarthy was awful in most of his throws. They mostly went high, and two of them ended up on the wrong team. Aaron Jones had a great day rushing along with Jordan Mason, but the passing game just wasn’t there to complement it.
What became worse was that when McCarthy had some good throws, the Vikings’ receivers decided to drop the ball, and these were on key drives in the second half. It was almost shocking that the Vikings got a lead with 50 seconds left in the game. Jordan Addison made the touchdown catch on a great pass from McCarthy, and all that was needed was for the defense to get a final stop.
Before the fans could even get a chance to see that opportunity, the special teams made a huge mistake. Devin Duvernay is a great returner who hadn’t done much in the game, and the coverage unit had done a commendable job.
There is some debate as to whether the Vikings should have kicked the ball out of the end zone and allowed the Bears the ball at the 35-yard line with a shorter field to work with when all they needed was a field goal to win, or let him attempt to return it and stop him around the 25-yard line and take some time off the clock.
Special teams coach Matt Daniels decided on the latter, and it proved costly. Tavierre Thomas is getting most of the heat from this, but Duvernay basically had a lead blocker with no one behind Thomas to help. When I look at the replay, it seems like Ivan Pace Jr. overpursues and leaves his lane to where Eric Wilson is.
Add in that Tai Felton gets blocked into Tyler Batty, who also seems to have gone too far inside, and the wide side of the field opened up perfectly. The Bears were basically in field-goal range on the return, with a few runs that got them to where Cairo Santos could comfortably kick the winning field goal. The Bears aren’t playing for just pride now as they come into the backstretch with a 7-3 record. Heartache takes it, and the winner loses all.
Packers at Giants
The Packers have not been a team that has dominated from start to finish this year, either. Like every team in the NFC North, they have let inferior teams hang around or even defeat them.
Heading to New York to face a Giants team was not a guaranteed win, and they seemed to do their best to let the Jameis Winston-led Giants – yes, Jameis Winston making his yearly out of nowhere appearance send them back to the stables with a loss.
The Packers did their best to let the Giants hang around all game. First, they missed an extra point after their first touchdown. These are the kinds of miscues that often come back to bite a team. Lucky for them, the Giants decided to match that by missing one of their own, so they were tied going in at halftime. The second half was mostly the same back-and-forth, with the Giants converting several 4th-down plays to stay in the contest.
New York took a lead in the 4th quarter, but it was short-lived as Jordan Love hit Christian Watson on a difficult catch to take the lead, then tacked on the 2-point conversion. Winston’s luck finally ran out as he threw a late interception, and a last-gasp drive was ended with a Micah Parsons sack. The Packers faced the Giants without Jaxson Dart or Cam Skattebo and barely came out with the win. Love was on the bench for a bit with a banged-up shoulder, and Josh Jacobs left the game early with a knee injury.
Neither seems serious, with Jacobs being the more worrisome of the two. They shouldn’t struggle that much if they want to get into the playoffs and beyond against a depleted Giants team. Dave Sinykin said on Paul Allen’s 9 to Noon show on KFAN that he thought Jacobs might sit out the game against the Vikings, but guessed he would be day-to-day. The Packers have the NFC North to hold off to get to the finish line, with a game against the Broncos mixed in to add to the horse race.
Lions at Eagles
As Sunday entered its final stretch, maybe the most intriguing game of the day was about to be played—the division-leading Lions against the NFC East-leading Eagles in a Sunday night showdown. The Lions have been the one team that hasn’t played questionably against lesser teams.
The Vikings beat them at home in convincing fashion, but that has been the exception. The Eagles have had some locker room squabbles and inconsistent offensive play. They also came close to letting the Vikings win a few weeks ago.
All the Lions needed to do was stay consistent and hold Saquon Barkley from running too much and not let Jalen Hurts get any passes downfield, and they would come home with a victory, even if it were a tight one. The Eagles’ defense has gotten better in the last few weeks after trading for Jaelen Phillips, and they used that to do to Lions QB Jared Goff what the Vikings did: get him rattled. Goff gets very inconsistent with his passes in that scenario, and Philly got him right where they wanted him.
While Detroit’s defense played rather well in a game that, frankly, wasn’t very exciting, their offense began to crack more and more as the contest went on. The Eagles’ offense wasn’t overpowering, and Barkley has been showing his age this year, quietly putting up 83 yards. Hurts only threw for 50% completion for 135 yards and no touchdowns. Otherwise, it was a game of field goal kickers.
Goff threw one touchdown in the 2nd quarter to Jameson Williams, whose touchdown celebration backed up the extra point that was missed. With Detroit shutting down the Eagles one more time, they were going to get the ball back on a short field. Unfortunately, the refs stepped in and called a phantom pass interference against the Lions.
Even Chris Collinsworth was upset by the call and let his opinion be known on air. The game was not great, and that rotten cherry on top helped the Eagles run out the clock. With that loss, the Bears now lead the division with a 7-3 record.
Division Standings
- Lions
- Packers
- Bears
- Vikings
Well, this is exactly where we all expected the NFC North to be at this point. Right? The records don’t reflect who I think are the best teams, but I know who the worst is.
The Lions are still the best team in the division after holding up well against the Eagles. Their overall wins are of better quality than the Packers’, who couldn’t take advantage of the Eagles’ poor play at home and also lost to the Panthers at home.
The Lions could still beat any team in the division, and they get to play the Packers at home, along with the Giants, Cowboys, and the Steelers. They control their own destiny the most. I feel they are the leader of this pack, even though they are currently in 3rd in the division. That won’t last.
The Packers also have more quality wins than the Bears, even with what some would consider embarrassing losses. They still haven’t played the Bears head-to-head yet or the Vikings until next weekend.
If they stumble in that game at home, then they move down a peg depending on how the Bears fare against the Steelers, who might be without an injured Aaron Rodgers, who “owns” the Bears even at their own stadium. The Packers will need to win convincingly next week to show that they remain in second place. They then have an NFC North gauntlet to get through that most know that records don’t matter when rivalries are involved.
The Bears are riding right next to the Packers in this race and could be looking to make a move on the outside in the next week or two. Not many expected them to ever lead the division this year, much less this late in the season. If they keep pulling off the close games, they can easily overtake the Packers and maybe even finish better than the Lions if Detroit has some major stumbles.
Chicago has the toughest path among the top three to travel, and Ben Johnson has to know when to use the riding crop and let them stretch their neck out.
The Vikings have come up lame so far this season and are pretty much out of the race. I want to tell you that better days are ahead this season, but I just can’t ride down that path. The Vikings and, more specifically, JJ McCarthy would need to have an absolute epiphany in the last few weeks to get to the playoffs and salvage the season.
The growing pains of developing a young quarterback are wearing on the Vikings’ faithful, and the online fighting is at a fever pitch. McCarthy isn’t there yet, and all the team can do is keep giving him reps and see if we get a clearer glimpse of what next year might bring.
If he has more positive plays and games and the Vikings win or even lose in a fighting fashion rather than stumbling all over the field, then at least the fans can think more positively about next year. If they lose next weekend in Green Bay, then the season is lost, and fans will hope their draft pick status is the only thing to improve. Right now, it feels like they are already headed back to the stables.
The race is coming to a close for sure. It all comes down to which team takes a key turn of speed after the last turn before heading into the final stretch. The North is a tumultuous division, and no matter what you see, you had better hold those tickets to the very end, as it’s looking to be a photo finish.
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