What a Loss to the Bears Would Really Mean for the Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings are expected to defeat the Chicago Bears by two or three points this weekend. But what if that doesn’t happen? Here’s a look at the fallout of that theoretical event.
What a loss to the Bears would really mean for the Vikings, from playoff fallout and draft impact to leadership doubts for J.J. McCarthy.
Minnesota has won eight of its last nine meetings against Chicago, but at some point, the tide will turn, unfortunately.
The Fallout if the Vikings Lose to the Bears This Weekend
Avert your eyes if you must.
Vikings Would Need a 6-1 Record the Rest of the Way to Reach Playoffs
Losing to the Bears would make Minnesota totally thread the needle the rest of the way if the playoffs remained the primary objective. The Vikings would need a 6-1 record between Weeks 12 and 18. Probably not happening.
The math is simple enough: beat Chicago and the Vikings are right back in the playoff mix. A win pulls them to 5–5, and from there, it’s a somewhat manageable 5–2 climb the rest of the way. That’s the optimistic view — the part of the season still within reach.
But the flip side is much darker. Dropping a home game to the Bears would trigger emotional elimination on the spot, with the mathematical version arriving not long after. You don’t lose back-to-back at home to the Ravens and Bears — two winnable games — and expect January football to still be available.
At 4–6, the climb becomes nearly impossible, especially with nine NFC teams already sitting at .500 or better. The margin for error isn’t thin anymore; it’s evaporated.
Only Thing That Would Matter … J.J. McCarthy’s Development
Let’s say Minnesota loses at home in back-to-back weeks. The team would feel eliminated from playoff contention, meaning the only thing left to play for, in fans’ estimation, would be a broader verdict on McCarthy as the franchise quarterback.
McCarthy has authored high highs and low lows in four starts, about what a reasonable person would expect from a first-time starter.
Everything about the remainder of the 2025 season would turn into a referendum on McCarthy if the Vikings lost to the Bears in Week 11.
Fans Browsing the 2026 Draft
Because the playoffs would feel like a phantom or extreme long shot, die-hard purple fans would begin perusing mock drafts for 2026. Depending on 2026 free agency, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah will need a cornerback and safety — and maybe a highly-touted young running back. An off-ball linebacker could be on the list, in addition to a center if Ryan Kelly retires.
A 4-6 record would undoubtedly shift fans’ focus to the draft, closely following the 1st-Round seeding the rest of the way.
USA Today‘s Aryton Ostly recently mock-drafted LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane and wrote, “Minnesota needs more youth in the secondary and Delane’s high floor would be welcome. The LSU cornerback doesn’t have elite tools like other cornerbacks in the class but is as savvy as it gets. Quarterbacks have been avoiding him all season thanks to his technical skills and length at 6-foot-1 and 187 pounds.’
Questioning the Leadership’s Job Security
What’s more, a healthy section of Vikings fans would wonder out loud if Adofo-Mensah and head coach Kevin O’Connell were the correct leaders for the organization.
Most expected McCarthy to experience ups and downs, but few believed the team would be 4-6 through mid-November. So, some would call for Adofo-Mensah to exit stage left, while others will chirp about O’Connell’s playcalling and ask whether his lack of commitment to running the ball is cancerous to the offense’s long-term prognosis.
In short, the public opinion of Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell will get messy if Minnesota loses to Chicago at home. Back-to-back losses at home will do that.
Glance at QB Contingency Plans
If the worst-case scenario arises — J.J. McCarthy plays like utter garbage, channeling his Week 2 performance against the Atlanta Falcons — you can bet that a substantial chunk of fans will question whether he’s the right guy for the long haul.
Most young quarterbacks begin to show their true colors around 250-300 dropbacks, and McCarthy is just over 100 through four starts. But these days, fans have very little tolerance for a quarterback’s development. Because Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert were so good out of the gate, with little or no regression, that is the blanket expectation for most 1st-Rounders.
Zone Coverage‘s Nelson Thielen noted this week, “This team’s expectations are hanging by a thread. They’re a loss or two away from fans loading up their draft sims and dreaming about next offseason, which is certainly not where they thought they’d be in mid-November.”
“But if they truly believe that McCarthy is the right choice to be behind the wheel, then it’s time for him to steer into the skid and get things back on track.”
If McCarthy plays woefully, next week’s discourse will bring chatter about 2026 contingency plans at quarterback, even if they’re wildly premature.
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