The Exact Formula for the Vikings to Take Down the Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles are up against the ropes at the moment, and there’s a reasonable path for the Minnesota Vikings to hand them their third consecutive loss this weekend. Here’s how Kevin O’Connell and friends can do precisely that.
It won’t be easy for the Minnesota Vikings to leave U.S. Bank Stadium with a win over the Philadelphia Eagles, but here’s how it can be done.
Minnesota has defeated Philadelphia in six years, so it’s go-time to get off the schneid and move to a 4-2 record along the way.
If the Vikings Want to Beat the Eagles, These Things Must Happen
Consider this the blueprint for Week 7.
1. Stop the Run
Minnesota has lost two games this season — just two.
The first? At home against the evidently stellar Atlanta Falcons — they made the Buffalo Bills look silly last week — a team that showcases Bijan Robinson at running back, who might be the best tailback in the world. Robinson abused the Vikings like he has done to every team besides the Carolina Panthers this season, and Atlanta completed a thorough victory over the purple team.
Two weeks later, in Dublin, Minnesota took on the Pittsburgh Steelers, a club missing its RB1 Jaylen Warren. Warren’s absence didn’t matter one bit, as Kenneth Gainwell torched Brian Flores’ defense, an outcome few thought possible.
So far this season, when Flores puts the clamps on the other team’s run game, relatively speaking, the Vikings win. When he doesn’t, they lose.
Contain Saquon Barkley. Win the game.
NFL.com‘s Maurice Jones-Drew wrote about Barkley this week, “It was naive of me to think Barkley could continue his unreal pace from 2024 this season. It is a surprise, however, to see just how significant the drop-off has been. With fewer than 60 rush yards in four of his six games this season, Barkley’s per-carry average (3.4) has dropped more than 2 yards from last season.”
“In fact, he has never averaged fewer than 3.7 yards per carry in a season in which he played at least 13 games. His natural talent, explosiveness and the way he can cut on a dime are still prevalent in Year 8, but his production won’t start adding up until the Eagles’ predictable, stagnant offense under new coordinator Kevin Patullo turns a corner.”
2. Win the Turnover Battle
An update to the world-famous Kevin O’Connell turnover statistic:
Vikings Record,
Under Kevin O’Connell:
Win the Turnover Battle or Break Even: 32-3 (.914)
Lose the Turnover Battle: 5-16 (.238)
The skinny: when you’re watching Vikings football, and the team starts clumsily handing fumbles and interceptions to the other team, you’re watching a squad that deserves a Top 10 draft pick — maybe even Top 5.
When you watch a purple team that protects the football and forces takeaways, you’re watching an elite masterclass. That’s how wildly this variance swings.
If Minnesota loses the turnover battle to Philadelphia, it will lose the game. Period.
3. Rush for 80+ Yards as a Team
Since O’Connell took over the enterprise, the variance between winning and losing while rushing the football — or not rushing the football — is vast. Of course, there is no direct causation with the statistics below, but you’ll know if Minnesota has a puncher’s chance to win Sunday if it consistently moves the sticks and keeps the ball on the ground.
Win-Loss Record,
Vikings,
Since 2022:
with > 80 Rushing Yards = 8-12 (.400)
with 80+ Rushing Yards = 29-7 (.806)
When the team runs the rock at an average or better clip, they win. When they don’t, its record is upside down.
4. Stop the Damn Penalties
The Vikings are penalized the second most in the NFL. When things start to trend well on a drive, mainly offense — boom — penalty. Drive dead. Stick a fork in it.
This must stop. The margin for error in beating the Dillon Gabriel-led Cleveland Browns is a different animal than the Super Bowl champion Eagles. A penalty parade will likely stop Minnesota dead in its tracks.
If you want to know why the Vikings don’t feel like a serious playoff team at times this season, these are the culprits:
Vikings NFL Rankings,
thru Week 6:
Time of Possession: 22nd
Offensive 3rd Down Conversion: 31st
Giveaways: 31st
Penalties: 31st
QB Sacks Allowed %: 31st
Those are the numbers — usually — of a 6-11 team or so. In addition to the penalty issue, the Vikings must fix the time of possession, offensive 3rd down rate, turnovers, and sacks allowed.
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