One Change Will Tell You if the Vikings Are for Real
The Minnesota Vikings have a right-side-up record at the moment (3-2), which is fantastic considering all the team’s injuries. But before too long, the squad must get serious about fixing its 3rd Down offense.
At one spot of the Minnesota Vikings’ enterprise in 2025, panic has set in because the numbers are too low to be taken seriously. The team needs a fix.
Minnesota has posted laughable 3rd Down marks on offense through five weeks, and if the struggles continue, there’s just no way the team will reach the postseason or wander anywhere near it.
3rd Down Offense for Vikings Needs Serious Repair
It will be an Achilles heel if no solution is found.
Vikings’ 3rd Down Woes on Offense Are Not Sustainable
There’s no sugarcoating; the Vikings’ offensive 3rd Down production is horrendous. Just bad.
Here are the NFL’s worst teams entering Week 6 via offensive 3rd Down conversion percentage:
- Tennessee Titans: 28.9%
- Minnesota Vikings: 31.0%
- New York Giants: 32.3%
- Washington Commanders: 32.6%
- Cleveland Browns: 34.2%
- New York Jets: 34.4%
- Houston Texans: 35.0%
- Cincinnati Bengals: 36.0%
That’s right — Minnesota ranks second-to-last in the metric, and that list, outside of possibly the Commanders, is a who’s who of stinky teams.
At Least Average Performance Required
The Vikings are probably too far in the toilet per 3rd Down conversion percentage to climb into the Top 10 this season. They would have to play at a marvelous clip for 10 straight games or so to climb that high. With J.J. McCarthy returning to the lineup soon, or even with Carson Wentz, Minnesota doesn’t feel as if it’s sitting on an offensive 3rd Down in-season renaissance.
The goal for the rest of the season is to improve and rank near the middle of the pack. That’s the ceiling.
No team can be a serious playoff or Super Bowl contender with the second-worst 3rd Down conversion rate. It’s unbecoming of a good football team.
Therefore, in the next several games, Minnesota must turn the naughtiness around — to the tune of an average 3rd Down team.
J.J. McCarthy’s Duty
Is all of this code for J.J. McCarthy’s ability to mature on the fly? It absolutely is.
McCarthy played like a buffoon during his last game, a Week 2 loss at home to the Atlanta Falcons. He did nothing to help the 3rd Down offense, and when Wentz took over after McCarthy’s high ankle sprain, the 3rd Down troubles persisted.
In Week 7 or Week 8, when McCarthy presumably returns to the lineup, it’s all up to him to guide the ship on 3rd Down. He’ll, of course, battle performance-related lumps and bruises on the field due to his experience, but if there’s one area where his team needs him, it’s on 3rd Down.
It’s worth noting that at Michigan, McCarthy was one of the NCAA’s very best 3rd Down passers. So, he has the gene. He just needs to translate it to the NFL, where it matters the most.
A Bellwether Test
Thankfully, in a strange way, the 3rd Down performance will serve as a bellwether event.
Think of it this way:
- Is the Vikings’ 3rd Down offense still poor? If yes, they will not do any serious damage beyond the 2025 regular season.
- Has the Vikings’ 3rd Down offense improved? If yes, they can be perceived as a legitimate playoff contender, especially with a depth chart that doesn’t have glaring holes when healthy.
This ordeal is truly an “if this, then that” test.
Kevin O’Connell on the Problem
Before Week 5, Vikings skipper Kevin O’Connell said about the 3rd Down offense, “It’s absolutely something we’ve got to continue to work through. Those downs tend to be the hardest ones and the most magnified when you’re down some guys on the offensive line, because it requires some individual 1-on-1 blocks at times.”
“It’s as much those third-down plays as it is the plays that precede them and making sure we’re efficient and staying on schedule to allow ourselves to get the ball out of our hand and put the ball in play to our playmakers.”
Justin Jefferson added about the offense prior to his team’s dub over Cleveland: “We’re still figuring it out. Just dealing with different circumstances, injuries, people having to step up in different spots, it’s difficult. This game of football is not really predictable, and a lot of things can really jump at you when you’re really not expecting it to.”
On defense, the Vikings rank as the NFL’s second-best team via 3rd Down conversion percentage. Maybe Brian Flores could offer some tips and tricks from his perspective.
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