The Vikings Playoff Probability Meter: Week 6

The Vikings Playoff Probability Meter: Week 6
Oct 9, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings tight end Irv Smith Jr. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports.

Each week, VikingsTerritory tracks the Minnesota Vikings odds of reaching the postseason, starting with pre-Week 1 all the way to Week 18.

Various probability sources are tracked and centralized in one spot for reference.

This is the Vikings probability meter before Week 6 against the Miami Dolphins.

FiveThirty Eight = 84%

Change from Last Week = +8.0%

Image Courtesy of FiveThirtyEight

FiveThirtyEight decided after the Vikings win over Chicago that Minnesota was the 9th-best team in football with the 6th most-likely odds to reach the playoffs.

The Vikings must now play .500 football (6-6) in the next 13 weeks to stamp a playoff ticket. Doing so would result in a 10-7 record, likely enough to earn a 6th or 7th seed in the NFC playoff dance. And, of course, that’s just the “basement” for playoff projection. The Vikings could rattle off 12 to 13 wins and take the division.

Football Outsiders = 80.8%

Change from Last Week = +4.4%

Lo and behold, the Green Bay Packers bungled a game in London, their first-ever trip across the pond for a regular season tryst. The New York Giants handed the Vikings an olive branch, and now Minnesota solely leads the NFC North.

The Vikings playoff odds rose substantially, and they’re even favored to win the division.

Sportsbooks = 84.6%

Change from Last Week = +7.1%

Minnesota’s odds per sportsbooks of reaching the postseason increased after Week 5, as the Vikings stand atop the NFC North, the Packers, Cardinals, and Rams lost, and teams don’t generally crumble after 4-1 starts.

The Vikings playoff moneyline right now is -550.

PlayoffStatus.com = 78%

Change from Last Week = +12.0%

This site leans heavier on wins’ and losses’ impact on the postseason. It doesn’t factor in predictive, intuitive measures like FiveThirtyEight. It considers the Vikings as honest-to-goodness playoff contenders. According to the site, the Vikings are the fourth most-likely franchise to reach the postseason. When the season began, the site listed the Vikings at 43%.

The Vikings take on the Dolphins in Week 6 at Hard Rock Stadium.



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Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).