Should the Vikings go for 2pts after EVERY TD? The Math seems to say yes…
AJ Mansour
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The Minnesota Vikings have a problem.
Yes that’s right, the 9-2 Minnesota Vikings, on the verge of clinching the division this weekend have a problem, and it need to be addressed sooner rather than later.
Vikings kicker Greg Joseph is currently 15-for-15 on field goals from inside 50 yards. But for some reason, he’s only connected on 24-of-29 extra points, what would equate to being a 32-yard field goal. Nobody is quite sure why Joseph seems to struggle, but since the beginning of the 2021 season he’s missed 10 total extra points.
No you might be saying that an extra point here and an extra point there won’t kill anybody, but for a Vikings team that has now eeked out eight victories in one possession games, a missed extra point here or there could make the difference in an important win and a devastating loss. As recently as last week, Joseph’s missed extra points have changed the trajectory of the game and allowed the opponent hope when hope should have been lost.
The easy solution would be to bring in another free agent kicker to fight for the job if not only light a fire under Joseph’s backside, but there aren’t really any attractive options out there. The Dan Bailey, best kicker in history of the league, scenario won’t play out this year so the reality of help coming from the outside may not be there.
So let’s look internally…what can the Vikings do to solve this problem? Well, depending on who you’re talking to, the best solution might actually be to go for the two-point conversion after each score rather than take a chance with Joseph’s iffy leg.
With the league average on extra points seeing a 90% conversion rate, there’s a little left to be desired from Joseph’s 82.8% conversion rate on points after this season. It’s essentially a field goal from 32 yards, but for one reason or another, it’s inside our kicker’s head.
Conversely, the conversion rate for two-point conversions is thought to be about 50% throughout the league, including a 2-for-2 conversion rate of 100% for the Minnesota Vikings this season.
Taking that math one step further, we can see that on 10 attempts, Joseph will make an average of 8 kicks, accounting for 8 total points. If the team had chosen to go for two points and even dropped back to the pack achieving the average conversion rate of 50% on those ten attempts, they would have scored 10 points over that same period of time.
It might feel more risky, and in theory it is more risky, but the opportunity cost for the two options leans in the favor of going for the two points conversion after every team score. With Dalvin Cook, C.J. Ham, T.J. Hockenson, Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson available in your arsenal of weapons, the options of play calls could be endless. If it ends up accounting for 10 more total points on the season, that seems like a win for the Vikings. When you’re winning games by one score left and right, a point here and a point there could take a one possession game and make it two, or a 3-point game with a field goal needed to tie and change it to a 4-point lead with the opponent needing to find the endzone to win.
I’ll admit, the idea might seem a bit foolish on the surface, but when your kicker has biffed four extra points in the last five weeks, converting 50% of two point conversions could turn the tide for the rest of the season.
Furthermore, this method of thinking is admittedly more “new-school” NFL than it is “traditional” NFL thinking, which makes it even better that the Vikings might have their first “new school” thinker in Kevin O’Connell at the head coaching position since Dennis Green took over back in 1992. Even better, his boss, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is also a new school, advanced statistics thinker and might support the shift as well.
Aj Mansour is a member of The Power Trip Morning Show on KFAN and works for iHeartMedia and the Vikings Radio Network. He’s also a senior writer for VikingsTerritory.com. Be sure to follow him on social media for the latest Vikings news and big opinions – @AjKFAN
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