Vikings Blueprint for 2026 Success Starts with More Consistent QB Play
As I prepare to watch the NFL divisional playoffs this weekend, it’s readily apparent that quality and consistent quarterback play are a big part of the reason these teams remain in the Super Bowl hunt. And it’s the major reason the Vikings did not qualify for the playoffs this season.
Over the next two weeks, I’ll lay out my blueprint for the Vikings to return to the postseason in 2026 as NFC North champs or a wild-card team.
The Vikings offense needs fewer resets, fewer missed games, and a quarterback plan that holds up across a full season.
Today, I’m focusing on the No.1 priority—more consistent quarterback play by a healthier J.J. McCarthy or another veteran quarterback the Vikings sign or trade for who either beats out McCarthy or relieves him in the event of another injury after McCarthy played in only 10 games last season (and had to leave the Detroit and Green Bay season-ending games after halftime due to his hand injury).
McCarthy ended this past season on a definite upswing. His 10-game stats included a dismal 57.6% completion rate (45th in the league) and a passer rating of 72.6 (46th). But a closer look at his last four starts (all wins as part of the team’s 5-0 finish, during which the defense played terrific) shows a 64.3% completion rate (which would’ve ranked 25th) and a passer rating of 100.4, which would be ninth-best over the full season.
Quarterback Stability Is the Vikings’ 2026 Pressure Point
Here are the 2025 regular season numbers for the final eight teams’ QBs (Josh Allen, Bills-69.3%, 102.2; Bo Nix, Broncos-63.4%, 87.8; Sam Darnold, Seahawks—67.7%, 99.1; Brock Purdy, 49ers—65.9%, 96.1; C.J. Stroud, Texans—63.2%, 87.0; Drake Maye, Patriots—72.0%, 113.5; Caleb Williams, Bears—62.5%, 87.8, and Matthew Stafford, Rams—65.0%, 109.2. Average completion percentage of these eight QBs was 66.2%. Average passer rating was 97.8.
That tells us McCarthy can be a playoff-caliber QB if he plays a full season in 2026, as he did in the last four games of 2025. While his completion percentage will need to rise even more than it did late in the season, his passer rating was top-10 caliber over those last four games (with five TD passes against only two interceptions over that span). His performance in the 31-0 Week 15 win over the Commanders—with 69.2% completions, three TD passes, 129.2 passer rating, and no turnovers—was elite.
Yet the body of work over the season—and McCarthy’s missed time–led Kevin O’Connell to say this week that while McCarthy “is going to be a major, major emphasis for our staff and our team and me personally,” he also “absolutely wants a competitive situation.” Which means the Vikings will try hard to sign or trade for a better No. 2 option than Carson Wentz or Max Brosmer turned out to be.
Blueprint for more consistent and hopefully elite-level QB play in 2026:
1. McCarthy stays healthy and plays a full season: coming off the knee injury that wiped out his rookie season, McCarthy missed seven games with a high ankle sprain early and a concussion later, and then half of the Lions and Packers games with the hairline fracture in his hand. In his season-ending press conference, GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said, “Availability is a skill, as they say.” Bud Grant put it this way, “A player can’t achieve greatness without durability.”
For McCarthy, that means when he scrambles outside the pocket or takes off running, he has to do a better job of avoiding contact by sliding sooner, getting out of bounds before he’s hit, throwing the ball away when he can’t find an open receiver, or taking a sack but protecting himself as he goes down.
Hall of Fame QB Dan Marino once called it learning to “live for the next play.” McCarthy doesn’t need to be stiff-arming players as he did in the finale against the Packers, which could lead to an arm injury.
McCarthy is an athletic QB who can run well (four rushing TDs this season). There will be key plays, such as fourth-down situations and diving into the end zone for a touchdown when contact is unavoidable. But a savvy QB can still protect himself as much as possible in those situations.
2. Better accuracy for McCarthy: As stated earlier, his completion percentage was much better late in the season, and it has to be even better next season. Drake Maye was a member of McCarthy’s 2024 draft class—taken at No. 3 overall while McCarthy was No. 10 in the first round. Maye completed 66.6% in his first year starting in 2024 and improved to 72%, leading the league this season.
Maye also went 3-9 as a rookie starter before his tremendous turnaround to 15-3 heading into this weekend. Fans often forget McCarthy went 6-4 in his 10 starts, but unfortunately for him and the Vikings, his late-season rise started too late. Perhaps he can have a Maye-like season in 2026, which would make the Vikings a playoff team and perhaps a candidate for a playoff run.
Former NFL, CFL, and college head coach, offensive coordinator, and QB coach, and former college QB Marc Trestman says on accuracy, “No skill set is more important to the evaluation of the quarterback’s ability to win than passing accuracy.”
McCarthy should put that quote on his personal bulletin board and read it before every practice and game in 2026.
O’Connell talked often this season about “feet and eyes” (aligning footwork with where a QB is looking to throw) as keys to accurate passing and said at his presser this week: “He knows the things he’s going to work on. He knows the things he needs to be a little more consistent at.”
3. McCarthy or whoever is playing quarterback, protect the ball better: The Vikings led the NFL with 30 giveaways, and Vikings QBs led the league with 21 interceptions and added several lost fumbles. McCarthy had 12 picks, Wentz threw five, and Brosmer four (all in his disastrous start at Seattle).
Simply said—protect the football! It’s certainly a critical part of the quarterback’s job.
4. Sign or trade for a better No. 2 QB option who can provide quality competition for McCarthy in training camp, and if McCarthy wins the job, then the No. 2 has to do a better job and win games if McCarthy gets hurt again.
I’m confident the Vikings will bring in a better veteran to compete for the job than Carson Wentz turned out to be, and it’s highly doubtful Brosmer will make a big enough leap in Year 2 to be the No. 2 who will push McCarthy.
Who will come in and compete? I think it could well be Kirk Cousins who is expected to hit free agency in March and may have trouble finding a team willing to pay him big money. So an incentive-laden one-year deal could bring him back to Minnesota, where he knows the offense, liked living here, and seems to have maintained a solid relationship with O’Connell.
Other options could include Jimmy Garoppolo, Malik Willis, Marcus Mariota, and dare we say—Aaron Rodgers. I think Mac Jones would be an excellent choice after he played well for the 49ers this season when Purdy was out but he was not smart in signing a two-year deal so the Vikings would have to trade for him and why would the 49ers let him go with Purdy’s injury history unless the Vikings send at least a third-round pick which I doubt they’d do.
Daniel Jones will be a free agent again, but the Colts want him back (after he went 8-5 as the starter with a 100.2 passer rating). If Jones didn’t stay in Minnesota after last season, it’s highly doubtful he’d come here now, plus he’s coming off a late-season torn Achilles, so he likely wouldn’t be available to play until training camp.
5. McCarthy or whoever the starter is must establish a significantly better connection with star receiver Justin Jefferson, who had the lowest production of his career with 84 catches for 1,048 yards and two TDs despite playing in every game. His 128 targets amounted to 7.5 per game, and he should have at least 10 targets per game. In Jefferson’s Offensive Player of the Year season in 2022 with Cousins as his QB, “Jets” had 184 targets (10.8 per game) with a league-leading 128 receptions for 1,809 yards and 8 TDs.
Far too often, McCarthy overthrew or badly missed an open Jefferson, which led to several picks. This has to change next season for a team with one of the league’s top receivers, and McCarthy and Jefferson are planning to spend time working together this offseason, which will be helpful as well as if they both stay healthy through training camp (Jefferson missed most of last year’s training camp with a hamstring injury).
Next Week: the rest of my blueprint for 2026 success beyond the QB
Around the NFL Observations with my Divisional round picks:
1. Pretty wild stuff in the head coach firings after it appeared there would be seven openings before John Harbaugh surprisingly got fired in Baltimore, and then Mike Tomlin resigned in Pittsburgh. Harbaugh and former Vikings OC/ex-Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski appear to be getting the most interviews, and Vikings DC Brian Flores is getting a few interviews with the Vikings, hoping he stays in Minnesota.
2. After so many close games and comeback wins in wild card weekend, here are my picks this weekend in the divisional round (my favorite football weekend of the year with the four NFL playoff games leading to the Indiana vs. Miami national championship game on Monday):
On Saturday, Denver is the top AFC seed but I think Josh Allen wills his Bills to a victory (as he did last week in Jacksonville) as he outplays Bo Nix who will turn it over a couple times and on Saturday night, I’ll take the Seahawks with their outstanding defense (that held the 49ers to three points two weeks ago) at home over the depleted 49ers who lost star tight end George Kittle to an Achilles injury last week (on top of too many other key injuries) but Darnold has not to turn it over.
On Sunday, I like hot Houston (10 straight wins) and their powerful defense led by Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. to upset Maye and the Patriots in Foxboro, and the Rams were a bit shaky in a narrow win at Carolina, but they’re better than the Bears and will beat them in the late game.
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