The Autopsy of the 2025 Vikings
It’s all over. Somehow — some way — the 2025 Minnesota Vikings ended the year with a winning record that didn’t feel like a winning season one bit after Week 1. The club had Super Bowl aspirations this year, with the caveat that quarterback J.J. McCarthy needed to be more game-ready than most first-year starters. Instead, the Vikings finished in third place in the NFC North. So, here’s a look at what went wrong.
Some Vikings issues were structural, others were self-inflicted, and a few were cruel timing. Here’s the cause(s) of death for the 2025 Vikings.
Minnesota has eight months before its next game, with free agency and the draft around the bend. This is the 2025 autopsy.
Why the 2025 Vikings Fell Short Despite a Winning Record
Plenty went wrong for the 2025 Vikings.
Poor Quarterback Play
Forty-nine quarterbacks had at least 80 dropbacks in 2025, and the Vikings featured three men who met the criteria: J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer.
Of those 49 passers, here’s where Minnesota’s quarterbacks ranked in EPA+CPOE, a metric that measures points and wins added to a team’s baseline:
- Carson Wentz: 22nd of 49
- Max Brosmer: 43rd of 49
- J.J. McCarthy: 47th of 49
Is this horrible? Yes, this is unspeakably horrible for a team that hoped to reach the postseason. Without any exaggeration, the Vikings probably could have won the NFC North with the NFL’s 20th-best quarterback.
Instead, for most of the season, they trotted out mind-bogglingly bad quarterback performance, sans some clutch moments and a couple memorable games from McCarthy.
Above all else, subpar quarterback production daggered the Vikings. Don’t let any other narrative tell you otherwise.
Too Many Injuries
The following Vikings players were injured and missed at least 2-3 games in 2025:
- Blake Cashman (LB)
- Jonathan Greenard (OLB)
- Christian Darrisaw (LT)
- Javon Hargrave (DT)
- T.J. Hockenson (TE)
- Donovan Jackson (LG)
- Theo Jackson (S)
- Aaron Jones (RB)
- J.J. McCarthy (QB)
- Josh Metellus (S)
- Rondale Moore (WR)
- Ryan Kelly (C)
- Jeff Okudah (CB)
- Brian O’Neill (RT)
- Harrison Smith (S)
- Andrew Van Ginkel (OLB)
- Carson Wentz (QB)
- Jordan Addison (suspension)
Some onlookers would see the list above and say, “Well, every team has injuries.” That is true. But not every team has a list that large. They just don’t.
Especially early in the season, injuries ravaged the Vikings. The margin for error in the season — one loss separated them from winning the NFC North — wasn’t quite enough to reach the postseason.
The Worst 3rd Down Conversion % in the NFL
Minnesota converted 32.7% of all offensive 3rd Downs this season. That ranked last in the sport. Teams that rank dead last in 3rd Down conversion percentage cannot reach the playoffs. It’s a miracle, in fact, that O’Connell and Co. ended the season with a winning record.
In 2024, Minnesota ranked 14th in the same stat. In O’Connell’s first season, it finished 11th.
The foremost statistical priority in 2026 — perhaps the next one on this list is just as important — is converting on 3rd Down.
The Most Giveaways in the NFL
No team turned the ball over on offense and special teams more than the Vikings. If you want to know why this season stunk — at least emotionally for fans — it’s because Minnesota led the NFL in turnovers and failed to convert on 3rd down.
Minnesota’s biggest turnover problem? The interceptions. Vikings quarterbacks threw 21, and that led the NFL. In a bad way.
They must simply be more accurate in 2026 — no matter who the quarterback may be.
Failure to Commit to the Run Game Early in the Season
The Vikings ended up ranking 19th in the NFL per rush playcall percentage, but it wasn’t always that way.
For the first couple of months of 2025, O’Connell relied on a familiar habit: abandoning the run in games the moment that his team fell behind on the scoreboard. To an extent, he could get away with that tendency in 2022, 2023, and 2024 when Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold ran the show at quarterback, but it did not work with McCarthy, Wentz, and Brosmer.
For Minnesota to ever have a real shot at prosperity this season, it needed to run the football at a Top 10 frequency as soon as it realized the quarterback play was so inefficient. Instead, O’Connell decided to throw the ball more.
It’s also worth noting that Minnesota ranked 11th in the league in yards per rush attempt. They had the efficiency to run the ball; they just didn’t do it very frequently when the playoffs were still in reach.
In December, he appeared to get the memo about running the ball, as abysmal quarterback performance had permeated the offense. Guess what happened? A five-game winning streak.
The Devin Duvernay Kick Return in Week 11
McCarthy returned midseason from a high ankle sprain after missing five games, and two weeks after beating Detroit, Minnesota hosted Chicago at U.S. Bank Stadium. For nearly three hours of real time, the young quarterback was overwhelmed and ineffective. Then, on the final drive, he flipped a switch and engineered what should’ve been the game-winning touchdown drive.
Minnesota led 17–16 with 50 seconds left. All special teams had to do was make a routine tackle on Devin Duvernay somewhere around the 25 or 30. Instead, Duvernay went untouched for 56 yards. The coverage unit lost him completely. Chicago took the gift, kicked the field goal, and walked out victorious.
Make that tackle, and Week 18 becomes a game with real playoff implications against Green Bay.
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