Dustin Baker’s Full Playoff Predictions and Super Bowl LX Pick
The 2025-2026 NFL postseason is here, with the Wildcard Round popping off hot and heavy Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Oddsmakers expect the Seattle Seahawks to play the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl LX. This analysis disagrees, instead choosing a different outcome entirely.
Round by round, this is the full bracket prognostication — where some upsets land, which contenders survive, and who ends up winning the whole damn thing.
The tournament may be the most unpredictable in years, with the Kansas City Chiefs not participating, along with no Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson in the mix.
Dustin Baker’s Full 2026 NFL Playoff Bracket
Getting predictions on record before the start of Wildcard Weekend.
AFC
Wildcard Round
(4) Texans over (5) Steelers
(6) Bills over (3) Jaguars
(2) Patriots over (7) Chargers
The Texans have the NFL’s second-best defense per EPA/Play, and the Steelers’ offense is prone to anemic spells. Houston prevails accordingly. The Jaguars are extraordinarily hot, as Trevor Lawrence has turned the corner into the first overall prospect who everyone foresaw from the 2021 NFL Draft. It just won’t be enough to take down Buffalo, a franchise that has an almighty chance in a wide-open AFC.
Patriots-Chargers is probably the most difficult matchup to predict all weekend. Leaning on homefield advantage makes sense in that situation, but a Justin Herbert heater could end the Patriots’ out-of-nowhere season.
The Athletic‘s Daniel Popper, on the other hand, forecasted a Chargers upset, noting. “This will be an excellent, entertaining game. Herbert and Maye will both make some plays outside the pocket with their arms and legs.”
“I think both offenses will try to lean into their rushing attacks to control the game. In the end, I think the Chargers’ defense will be able to slow down the Patriots’ league-leading passing offense, and that will be the difference. I think the Chargers offense will do enough against a Patriots defense that is well-coached and sound, but still a year away from having enough talent at all three levels.”
NFC
Wildcard Round
(5) Rams over (4) Panthers
(3) Eagles over (6) 49ers
(7) Packers over (2) Bears
The Panthers had a -69 point differential in 2025, which was worse than the 4-13 New York Giants. They’re going to get worked by the Rams. Eagles-49ers might be the best matchup of the weekend, pound for pound, but Philadelphia is the pick because San Francisco just has so many injuries: Nick Bosa, Brandon Aiyuk, Fred Warner, Tatum Bethune, etc.
Packers at Bears is an absolutely nauseating watch from a Vikings fan’s standpoint; roll with the Packers until the Bears prove otherwise.
AFC
Divisional Round
(6) Bills over (1) Broncos
(5) Texans over (2) Patriots
The numbers suggest that Denver overachieved in 2025, ranked 11th in ESPN’s Power Index at season’s end. The Bills rank four spots higher. They’ll continue to chart a postseason of destiny at Denver.
After surviving the Chargers, Drake Maye and Co. will encounter Houston’s mighty defense, and its lack of playmakers will ring too loud for the moment.
NFC
Divisional Round
(1) Seahawks over (7) Packers
(5) Rams over (3) Eagles
Most Vikings-themed websites don’t trust Sam Darnold in the postseason — why would they? — but at home, his team’s No. 1-ranked defense will frustrate Jordan Love and friends. Seattle defeats Green Bay by one score.
Los Angeles will find some redemption from last year’s postseason and narrowly beat Philadelphia late due to Matthew Stafford’s clutch gene.
AFC Championship
(6) Bills over (4) Texans
Josh Allen habitually struggles at Houston — it’s a bit like the old Kirk Cousins narrative in primetime — but he will get the monkey off his back in 2025. The Bills will make enough plays to outclass the Texans on the road, and for the first time in about 35 years, Buffalo will return to the Super Bowl, a house of horrors for that organization.
NFC Championship
(5) Rams over (1) Seahawks
The grudge match.
Seattle got the best of Los Angeles a couple of weeks ago, but it won’t do so with a trip to the Super Bowl on the menu. Darnold will encounter familiar big-game demons, while the Rams, who have “been there before,” stamp a Super Bowl trip by winning late in the 4th Quarter.
Super Bowl LX
Bills over Rams
This will be a thrillingly entertaining Super Bowl — something in the ballpark of 37-34.
Alas, after seven consecutive trips to the postseason, Allen and teammates will win Super Bowl LX, and he will bank the Super Bowl MVP for his troubles.
If none of this happens, and the Bills lose early in the playoffs, head coach Sean McDermott will likely be fired.
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