It’s Time to Have a Conversation About Kevin O’Connell
Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell has deservedly gotten every benefit of the doubt during the 2025 season after leading his squad to a shocking 14-3 record in the previous campaign. Ultimately, the NFL is a “what have you done for me lately” business, not one that’s living in the past and lately, the results haven’t been there for the Minnesota Vikings.
Sam Darnold has led the Seattle Seahawks with a godly performance to the Super Bowl, while the Vikings barely had NFL-level quarterbacking in 2025 and were practically eliminated in November. Given his influence in building the quarterback room and the offense, O’Connell can’t avoid an uncomfortable conversation.
The Quarterback Journey
Entering the 2024 offseason, the Vikings faced questions at the quarterback position. Kirk Cousins was set to enter free agency, but with his age and the recently sustained Achilles injury, would another investment even make sense? The club decided not to match Atlanta’s absurd $180 million contract. Cousins walked.
Well, a replacement had to be found. Sam Darnold was acquired in free agency — a talented passer who has never shown he can be a true starting QB in the NFL. A few weeks later, he was paired with draft prospect J.J. McCarthy, a 21-year-old national champion with some physical tools, but also raw fundamentals.
Fast forward one year and the Vikings had once again a decision to make. Darnold was coming off a season with 35 passing touchdowns and over 4,300 yards of passing. Unfortunately, his Pro Bowl-caliber play left him in the final two games of the season. On the biggest stage of his career, he turned into Jets Darnold that was seeing ghosts rather than answers for Detroit’s and Los Angeles’ defenses.
The decision-makers wanted to turn to McCarthy, allowing Darnold to walk to Seattle, instead of using the franchise tag. While the Cousins move didn’t backfire, this one did. Darnold overcame his demons and marched right to the Super Bowl. This time, his best ball was played on the biggest stage, with the Super Bowl on the line.
McCarthy, meanwhile, suffered several injuries and struggled when healthy. Despite unquestioned bottom-five QB play, the Vikings finished 9-8. One can only imagine the record with Darnold under center.
QB Whisperer?
Over the years, O’Connell has earned the respect around the league as a quarterback whisperer. Four years in, however, it’s time to question that. He inherited Kirk Cousins, who was just coming off a season with 4,221 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 7 INTs in 16 games.
Statistically, that was his best year. Ironically, current Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak was calling the shots at that time. Cousins, at most, kept his level of play in 2022. Statistically, he got worse, but the team won games. The one-score luck completely changed everything. The signal-caller was fantastic in 2023 until he suffered a season-ending injury.
Josh Dobbs was amazing — for about four quarters. Nick Mullens was amazing — until the next interception. Jaren Hall was, well, not amazing. Neither had done much before or after the pairing with O’Connell. Perhaps he got the most out of them; we’ll never know.
In 2024, O’Connell’s claim to fame was Darnold’s revival. Ultimately, Darnold played a comparable season in 2025, so it’s time to wonder whether O’Connell elevated Darnold or Darnold elevated O’Connell. His Vikings quarterbacks, meanwhile, struggled all year.
Overrated Offenses
Paired with the overrated quarterback whisper label is the fact that his offenses haven’t particularly delivered.
To make that declaration, we’ll use two advanced metrics: EPA/Play and DVOA.
His side of the ball ranked via EPA/Play:
- 2025: 28th
- 2024: 14th
- 2023: 18th
- 2022: 18th
Overall, since his arrival, the Vikings rank 19th. Well, maybe that metric just doesn’t like the Vikings. Let’s check DVOA.
- 2025: 29th
- 2024: 15th
- 2023: 23rd
- 2022: 20th
Maybe it isn’t a conspiracy by numbers people, but his units have actually been average offenses. Only recently has O’Connell started to show an interest in establishing a running game. He quickly stopped doing that when his team got behind, though. There’s no doubt about it, there has been too much talent on offense to produce these results.
If one now wants to attribute the lack of consistent success to the quarterback play, that person has to acknowledge that other teams have subpar quarterback play, too, and not all of them have the 29th-best offense in football. Furthermore, O’Connell has been the architect of the quarterback room.
The Architect and Teacher
It’s been widely reported that O’Connell had the final say on the QB plan, and he mentioned that he vetoed some QB options in past drafts. In 2024, he gave the green light to grab McCarthy with the 10th overall pick. Would Bo Nix have been better? Perhaps. Not drafting one at all was on the table, too.
Either way, once McCarthy was in the room, it was his job to build an offense around him that uses his strengths rather than highlight his weaknesses. That didn’t work. Also, it was his responsibility to teach him the fundamentals of quarterback play. After nearly two years under his watch — granted, he was injured for quite some time — McCarthy is still struggling with the basics.
If he indeed was the driving force behind the QB moves, he either picked the wrong one, or he picked the right one and failed to get NFL-level quarterback play out of him.
The Benefit of the Doubt
At this point, all the Vikings can do is give him another season to make sure 2025 wasn’t the outlier. There’s a chance that 2022 and 2024 — at least the regular seasons — are what O’Connell can provide regularly.
Through his first four years, the head coach has tabulated a record of 43-25. He might not have gotten “more” out of his QBs, but he still got Pro Bowl seasons out of Cousins and Darnold and won way more games than he lost.
Both McCarthy and O’Connell will get another offseason to get on the same page and crazier things have happened than that a tandem of a former top-ten pick and an offensive-minded head coach improved over time. Competition could arrive via trade or in free agency.
The decision to turn to McCarthy instead of keeping Darnold in the building could haunt the franchise for years to come and the head coach needs to answer the bell. His seat could heat up quickly with a Darnold Super Bowl and continued struggles in the 2026 season.
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