To the Vikings: This Is Your Warning about Trading Down in the Draft.
It’s mock draft season when speculation runs rampant. One popular theory is that the Vikings will trade down from their No. 24 overall pick in the first round to acquire more picks since the team currently has only four choices — in the first, third, fifth, and sixth rounds.
I say that’s a dangerous game to play, and Minnesota has the 2022 draft as a prime example of the mistake they made when trading their No. 12 pick in the first round plus a second-rounder (No. 46) to division-rival Detroit (who selected starting WR Jameson Williams at 12) for the last pick in the first round (No. 32 overall), the second pick in the second round (No. 34) and a third-rounder.
To the Vikings: This Is Your Warning about Trading Down in the Draft.
At No. 32, the Vikings picked safety Lewis Cine, who never started a game and was cut last season. They inflicted further damage on themselves by trading the No. 34 pick for several later picks, including No. 53, and then traded that No. 53 along with third and sixth-round picks to move up to No. 42 and pick corner Andrew Booth, who, like Cine, was a bust. The third-rounder from the 2022 trade down was Brian Asamoah, a backup linebacker and special-teams player.
It’s painful for Minnesota to see the outstanding players they could have taken at No. 12 in the 2022 draft. Baltimore selected two-time all-pro safety Kyle Hamilton at No. 14. Kansas City picked two-time all-pro corner Trent McDuffie at No. 21. Think how much Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores would love to have either of those playmaking defensive backs on their defense.
Two Pro Bowl offensive linemen also were picked in that first round before the Vikings took Cine — guard/tackle Tyler Smith by Dallas at No. 24 and center Tyler Linderbaum by Baltimore at No. 25. If either of those players were in Minnesota, the Vikings could’ve saved a big outlay of salary cap money on Will Fries or Ryan Kelly this year.
Fortunately, the last two years are on track for better draft results in the first round as the Vikings hit on 2023 first-round WR Jordan Addison and the pair of 2024 first-rounders — QB J.J. McCarthy and Edge/OLB Dallas Turner — look very promising.
And of course by necessity due to an overall lack of draftee contributors, the Vikings have overcome the ill-fated 2022 draft by achieving great success in their free agent signings including Pro Bowlers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel along with top ILB Blake Cashman and CBs Stephon Gilmore and Shaq Griffin on defense and QB Sam Darnold and RB Aaron Jones on offense. These signings were a major reason the team won 14 games last season.
The 2025 free agent class, led by Fries, Kelly, and Pro Bowl DTs Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, holds similar promise of success.
Early in my NFL front office career, I learned that it was a highly questionable move to trade down from the team’s spot in the first round and especially to trade out of the first round completely. That’s what the Vikings did back in 1981 before I had any draft involvement.
We traded the 18th pick in the first round to the Colts for two second-round picks (No. 39 and 52) and a fifth-round pick. The trade was a disaster as WR Mardye McDole was the pick at 39, and he had three career receptions in his three-year career, while the 52nd pick — RB Jarvis Redwine — also only lasted three seasons and had 70 career rushing yards. The fifth-rounder was DE Wendell Ray, who did not pan out.
As it turned out, that Vikings team could have picked Bears Hall of Fame middle linebacker Mike Singletary before McDole went at 39 and two other Hall of Famers — DE Howie Long of the Raiders and LB Rickey Jackson—were selected after McDole and before Redwine.
That 1981 draft convinced me it only made sense to move down a couple of spots in the first round if we had several players of basically equal grades available at our spot, so we knew we’d get one of our desired players. But not to move at all if there was a player we graded as potential Pro Bowl caliber available at our spot. And definitely not to trade out of the first round completely unless it was for a veteran player of star caliber.
So for Minnesota in next week’s draft, stay put at No. 24 if there is a premier offensive guard, corner, safety or defensive lineman but still take the best player available regardless of position and if he plays guard, corner or safety as the three biggest need positions, then so much the better.
And if there’s an offer to move down three or four spots thus staying in the first round and pick up an extra third and fourth round pick in a deep draft, then do it as long as there are at least three players with close to equal grades waiting in the later spot and there’s not a Pro Bowl caliber player sitting there at No. 24.
Around the NFL Observations
1. Offseason programs have begun around the league, and it will be exciting for the Vikings coaches to welcome the players back for the offseason program that begins with strength, conditioning, and meetings on Monday and leads to OTAs and minicamp in May and June. The continuation of J.J. McCarthy’s indoctrination into the starting QB role now begins in earnest and will be the biggest storyline for the Purple in 2025.
2. Assuming QB Cam Ward is taken first overall by the Titans in next week’s draft, the drama begins with the Browns at No. 2 and then the Giants at No. 3. Does CB/WR Travis Hunter or edge/OLB Abdul Carter head to Cleveland and will the Giants pass up Hunter or Carter to take QB Shedeur Sanders (I don’t think so even though they’re working out Sanders again this week).
It’s a tough call for the Browns on Carter — who would be a great addition to pair with star DE Myles Garrett — or Hunter who should be a game-changer as an ultra-talented two-way player (and he insists that he’ll play both CB and WR and why not since he’s probably the best player in this draft at both positions but I see him playing as a full-time corner and part-time third receiver at least in his rookie season).
The Giants should be happy to get whichever player the Browns don’t take and wait until the early second round to pick a QB to be developed.
That’s what I expect from a team that signed vets Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston and has a GM (Joe Schoen) and head coach (Brian Daboll) who likely have to win this year to keep their jobs. Carter or Hunter should be more immediate help than Sanders, who is not as talented coming into the league as Jayden Daniels (last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year after leading the Commanders to the NFC title game).
But anything can happen come draft day.
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl
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