Why the Vikings Can Beat the Packers Right Now
The J.J. McCarthy watch is again occurring this week at Vikings headquarters as he tries to overcome the fourth injury of his young career. Coach Kevin O’Connell said the hand injury is improving, and he’d “love” to have his starting QB in the lineup for the season finale against the Packers with a winning season on the line.
“We’re in that wildly significant time where any and all reps and experience,” O’Connell said. “Another home game, all those things are important.”
The Vikings can dictate terms on the ground, force Green Bay into uncomfortable defensive choices, and keep the game within Flores’ preferred structure rather than letting it turn into a weird shootout.
If McCarthy can’t make his tenth start (5-4 record so far), either Max Brosmer will get the nod for his third start (1-1 record) or perhaps the coaches will go with three-year vet John Wolford (2-2 in four career starts with the Rams).
Regardless of who starts at quarterback, the Vikings will emphasize the run game after the Packers were gashed for 307 rushing yards (216 yards and 4 TDs by Derrick Henry) in their 41-24 home loss to the Ravens last Saturday, which clinched the NFC North for the Bears. The Green Bay D also gave up 150 yards on the ground the previous week in their overtime loss in Chicago.
Where Minnesota Holds the Week 18 over Green Bay
In the 23-6 Week 12 loss to the Packers at Lambeau Field, the Vikings averaged 4.7 yards per carry but abandoned the run when they fell behind 17-6 after Myles Price had a punt bounce off him at the Vikings’ 5-yard line to set up an easy TD drive.
O’Connell called only three running plays in the second half, and McCarthy struggled with 25 passing yards, two interceptions, and four sacks after halftime. O’Connell won’t stop running it this week unless the Vikings fall far behind or the offensive line can’t open holes with two or three backups starting (depending on whether tackle Brian O’Neill can play with his injured heel).
Packers Coach Matt LaFleur is pondering which starters he will sit with his team locked into the NFC’s No. 7 playoff spot. He said he learned a hard lesson last year in Week 18 when the Packers could only improve their playoff seed by one spot, and he played his starters against Chicago. In that game, key receiver Christian Watson suffered a season-ending torn ACL, and QB Jordan Love hurt his hand. Love threw three interceptions the following week in a Wildcard round loss to the Eagles.
I’ll be surprised if Love plays on Sunday after he missed last week with a concussion. I also think top RB Josh Jacobs and WR Christian Watson, both of whom have dealt with injuries this season, will sit out.
Ten wins is always a measure of a good season in the NFL, and LaFleur will want to get the win to reach 10-6-1 and also avoid entering the playoffs on a four-game losing streak. He wasn’t happy with his defense’s play against the Ravens.
LaFleur will also try to keep his team healthy for a likely Wildcard round game at Chicago next week, so if the game is not close late, he’ll pull starters who were not initially kept out.
For the Vikings, a fifth straight victory to reach 9-8 while going 4-2 in the NFC North with a win Sunday would be a nice achievement in this frustrating season.
Here are my keys to a Vikings win over the Packers for a winning season:
1. Win the turnover battle: the Vikings lost it 3-0 in the first meeting with the Packers six weeks ago. With their six takeaways against Detroit, the Vikings now have 21 takeaways, ranking sixth, but their 29 giveaways are still the most in the league, resulting in a minus-8 ratio (third-worst). The Packers are even in the ratio: their 13 takeaways are the sixth fewest, but their 13 giveaways are the fourth fewest.
2. Run the ball: As referenced above, Baltimore beat Green Bay with their running game, and the Vikings should try to do the same. But the Vikings’ offensive line—missing key starters—is not at the level of the Ravens. Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason were effective in the earlier meeting until the Vikings stopped running. They combined for 17 carries and 83 yards (4.9-yard average).
Jones had good games in both 2024 meetings as the Vikings swept his former team—139 combined yards rushing and receiving in Green Bay and 77 combined yards in Minnesota.
The Packers will surely load the box to stop the run, so McCarthy or Brosmer will have to hit quick passes and take some shots downfield.
The jet sweep by Addison for the 65-yard TD last week was a great call and should be utilized a couple of times on Sunday.
3. McCarthy or Brosmer get the ball out quickly and O-line protect: the Packers sacked McCarthy five times in the Week 12 meeting, and he passed for only 87 yards. The Packers’ secondary is suspect, but the question is if the Vikings QB will have time to throw. With Micah Parsons on IR, it improves the Vikings’ chances to make some plays in the passing game.
Justin Jefferson needs 53 yards to reach 1,000 for the sixth straight season. O’Connell will try to make that happen through wide receiver screens and slants.
The Vikings need to give Justin Skule help at left tackle, especially when he’s matched up with Rashan Gary (7.5 sacks). FB C.J. Ham and TE Josh Oliver will be counted on to help a lot in pass protection and run blocking.
4. No drops: Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor were only targeted once each last week with no catches, and Jefferson had five targets and four catches (for only 30 yards). There were no drops, which is important this week too.
T.J. Hockenson missed last week (shoulder), but he’s possible to be back, which would help the passing attack.
5. Stop the run: if Jacobs plays (which I doubt), he’ll rotate often with Emanuel Wilson, who had 107 rushing yards on 28 carries and two TDs last time, as Love threw only 21 times with 14 completions for 139 yards. The Packers had 146 rushing yards that day, which led to a 37-23 minute edge in time of possession.
6. Brian Flores unleash his pressures and blitzes like last week (six turnovers forced with a 55% pressure rate of Jared Goff): If it’s Willis as expected, Flores likely will blitz more often than he would against Love due to Willis being less experienced with only six career starts in his four seasons. But the Vikings’ defenders will have to beware of Willis’ scrambling, and he played well against the Ravens, so the team has confidence in him. Besides his 288 passing yards with one TD, he also ran for 60 yards with two rushing TDs against Baltimore.
Andrew Van Ginkel has been making a lot of plays during the recent winning streak. He now leads the team with seven sacks despite missing five games. Dallas Turner has also improved this season, with six sacks (double his total from his rookie season). The two edge rushers need to have big games, setting the edge in run D and on pass rushes.
7. Cover the talented Packers receivers: Watson probably will sit, but there are several other quality wide receivers, including Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Matthew Golden, and Dontayvion Wicks, along with TE Luke Musgrave. They will be a challenge for the Vikings’ secondary.
8. Limit the penalties: only three for 20 yards vs. the Lions was a nice improvement after it was a problem against the Giants (11 for 90 yards).
9. Will Reichard outkick Brandon McManus: only two missed field goals and perfect on extra points for Reichard, while McManus has missed six field goals and one extra point.
The special teams must cover well and avoid major miscues, such as Price’s misplayed punt in the first game. Price is out with an ankle injury, so Nailor will likely handle the punt return duties with Tai Felton or Ty Chandler on kickoff returns.
Prediction:
The Vikings’ defense is on a roll. I see Willis starting for the Packers, and Flores will have him confused and rattled. Green Bay has injury issues, and as much as LaFleur wants to get a win and not enter the playoffs on a four-game losing streak, he will sit several starters and pull others as the game progresses. The Vikings will have two takeaways to set up short fields for whichever QB.
I think the Vikings will have trouble moving the ball on a Packers defense trying to make amends for a lousy game last week. They still rank 11th on the season, but are not as good without Micah Parsons. The Vikings will have to settle for several Reichard field goals, including the game-winner from 50 +. I predict 23-20 Vikings, and while it’s disappointing for a team with playoff aspirations, 9-8 is a respectable record considering they were 4-8 through 12 games.
Around the NFL Observations for Week 18
1. When the Lions crushed the Bears 52-21 in Week 2 in Detroit, it would’ve been crazy to think that when the two teams met again in the regular season finale, Chicago would be 11-5 and have dethroned Detroit as NFC North champs.
And that the Lions would fall from a 15-win team to 8-8. That’s the reality this week. The Bears need to beat the Lions to clinch the No. 2 seed and host Green Bay next week. The Lions won’t lie down, but the Bears have a higher level of motivation for playoff seeding and revenge from the Week 2 loss, and Chicago will win a close game.
2. It will be an exciting weekend with a lot at stake for so many teams. Sam Darnold has thrown 14 picks (third most in the league and two more than he did with the Vikings last season). I think he’ll have a couple more as the 49ers beat the Seahawks for the NFC West title and No. 1 seed on Saturday night with Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey leading the charge for the Niners.
DK Metcalf’s two-game suspension for throwing a punch at a fan in Detroit will cost the Steelers a division title and playoff spot when Baltimore beats them in Pittsburgh on Sunday night to win the AFC North.
I see Tampa Bay beating Carolina on Saturday, but the Panthers will still win the lousy NFC South when Atlanta beats New Orleans on Sunday to create a three-way tie at 8-9, with Carolina winning the division on a tie-breaker.
Jacksonville will win at home over Tennessee to claim the AFC South title, but both teams will be dangerous in the AFC playoffs.
With Justin Herbert resting this Sunday, the Broncos should handle the Chargers to clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed and the valuable first-round bye.
I’ll break down Vikings-Packers, begin to discuss off-season needs for the Vikings, and preview the Wildcard round next week.
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