Three Big Things We Got Wrong about the 2025 Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings’ offseason will kick off in 15 days. Yes, it’ll be here that soon. And with the team now not allowed to participate in the postseason, it’s time to reflect on what went wrong.
With the season over, here are three assumptions we carried into 2025 that looked reasonable then — and aged poorly once the tape piled up.
The franchise appears on track to finish the season strong, but here’s what VikingsTerritory got wrong about the 2025 season.
Three Preseason Assumptions about The 2025 Vikings That Didn’t Hold Up
We missed the boat on the following items.
1. J.J. McCarthy Would Perform at Least an Average Rate of Efficiency
Because Kevin O’Connell is a “quarterback whisperer,” we did not expect McCarthy to look like a mix between Tim Tebow, JaMarcus Russell, Spergon Wynn, and Christian Ponder in his first six starts.
But he did.
McCarthy somehow displayed a very visible clutch gene late in games while playing like an unprepared high schooler in the other sections of games. It just didn’t make sense. His mechanics were weird, and at times, he couldn’t complete a basic pass.
We believed McCarthy would play decently the whole season, pass for 3,500 yards or so, and connect on 20-25 touchdowns. Only as of late (the last two games) has McCarthy experienced a lightbulb moment, looking significantly better against the Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys. The guy is trending in the right direction.
Generally speaking, we thought his development would be more normal — not from the worst quarterback ever through six starts to a damn Pro Bowler against WAS and DAL.
McCarthy told reporters this week about his recent improvement, “Every play felt in sync. It felt on time. It didn’t feel like there was any indecisiveness, and when there was, and I couldn’t see over the line or something like that, I was dishing the ball out and just putting it in play.”
“I feel like that growth was something that really stood out. Emphasizing where my outlets are, and checkdowns. Just knowing where to scramble. It’s one thing to get out of a fight-or-flight situation, but it’s another thing to, not necessarily predetermined, but just be aware of where the slide’s going, where the man side is.”
McCarthy must now parlay the positives from the last two games into a strong finish against the Giants, Lions, and Packers.
“Because that’s usually going to be where the gaps are going to open up. And what concepts are over there? What routes are over there? So just understanding the offense more as a whole has helped tremendously,” McCarthy added.
2. Kevin O’Connell Would Actually Run the Football
There’s a strange disconnect at the center of Minnesota’s offensive approach. For most of the season, the Vikings have operated with quarterback play that ranks near the bottom of the league — a reality Kevin O’Connell has openly acknowledged. And yet, the response hasn’t been caution or insulation. It’s been volume.
Minnesota is throwing the ball roughly 60 percent of the time, landing among the league’s most pass-heavy teams while also sitting near the bottom in rushing frequency. That’s an odd marriage when efficiency under center has been this shaky. Conventional logic would suggest flipping those tendencies entirely.
What makes it more puzzling is that the run game hasn’t been the problem. When the Vikings actually commit to it, they’re productive. The offense ranks inside the top dozen in yards per carry, a quiet indicator that something functional exists on the ground.
Instead, Minnesota keeps leaning into the air attack, pairing historically poor quarterback efficiency with one of the league’s higher pass rates. The irony is hard to miss. A team that runs well chooses not to run, while insisting on throwing at a volume usually reserved for offenses that trust their quarterback far more than this one ever should.
When O’Connell said in the most recent offense that he wanted to run the ball more often, we believe him. That has not materialized — until the last two games.
3. The Vikings Would Finish around 9-8 or 10-7 and Make the Playoffs
VikingsTerritory bought into Minnesota as a playoff team this season, mainly because the team registered 14 wins last year, and we thought McCarthy could play serviceably to start his career. He did not.
The defense has done its part, but a difficult schedule, poor offense (until the last two games), and a naughty giveaway problem have ruined the 2025 Vikings.
We did not envision the horrid early performance from McCarthy, and usually, teams led by O’Connell hold their own in the turnover battle. The result? A 6-8 record through 15 weeks.
Thankfully, the Vikings tend to make the postseason every other year, so “maybe next season will be different.”
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