More QB Drama as Vikings Prep for Sam Darnold
Hindsight is 20/20 in life and in the sports world. With the Vikings facing Sam Darnold and the Seahawks in Seattle on Sunday, and J.J. McCarthy’s struggles in his six starts (and another injury, as he’s currently in concussion protocol), there’s continued second-guessing of the Vikings’ offseason quarterback decisions.
More quarterback drama surrounds the Minnesota Vikings as they prep for Sam Darnold, adding another wrinkle to a week already full of uncertainty.
Darnold is having an excellent 2025 season after leading the Vikings to 14 wins in 2024 before he unraveled — with the help of lousy offensive line play — in the season-ending losses to the Lions and Rams. Darnold has led the Seahawks to an 8-3 record with the league’s fifth-best QB rating of 106.2 (19 TDs, 10 interceptions, 69.5% completions).
The Sam Darnold Revenge Game Is Around the Bend for Vikings
In hindsight, the Vikings could’ve placed the franchise tag at $40.2 million on Darnold for one year and kept him as the starter while McCarthy had another season to be groomed following his knee issues last year.
Or what made more sense would’ve been to make a bigger effort to keep Daniel Jones, who has led the Colts to the AFC South lead at 8-3 and ranks tenth in passer rating (101.4). Jones signed for one year, $14 million with the Colts, and perhaps a $20-25 million offer plus incentives for 2025 would have secured him.
There are no do-overs on the decisions the Vikings made last offseason, but it’s obvious now that either Darnold or Jones would have led this Vikings team to several more wins. Carson Wentz went 2-3 as the starter before landing on IR, and McCarthy is 2-4 in his starts, with a 57.9 passer rating that ranks last in the league among regular starters (and he’s obviously having a hard time staying healthy early in his career).
I see talent in the 22-year-old McCarthy, and I still believe he will develop into a quality starter and perhaps a Pro Bowl-caliber QB. I’ve repeatedly said patience is required in his case, as many top QBs have gotten off to rocky starts in their careers.
But if McCarthy doesn’t show significant improvement over the remainder of this season, the Vikings have to bring in a quality vet to compete with him next year, which, in hindsight, they should’ve done this year with Darnold or Jones. The quarterback position is too important to rely on an unproven young player.
The Vikings could have taken the $9 million per year they’re paying center Ryan Kelly (seven missed starts) and the $15 million per year they’re paying DT Javon Hargrave for very average play along with $2.3 million for often-injured and inconsistent CB Jeff Okudah (now on IR) and put those funds toward Darnold, Jones or another vet option better than Carson Wentz turned out to be.
If Darnold plays well and leads the Seahawks to a win over the Vikings on Sunday, the noise will intensify further regarding the Vikings’ off-season QB decisions.
If the Vikings find a way to beat the Seahawks (a tall order given the team’s recent play) as they did last year (27-24 in Week 16 in Seattle when Darnold led the way), there would be an opportunity to get on a late-season roll. They would need to run the table with six straight wins to reach 10-7 and have a shot at the playoffs (and 10 wins might not be enough in a loaded NFC).
Next up after Seattle are winnable games against 3-8 Washington at home, at 5-5-1 Dallas (who could well be out of the playoff hunt by then), and at the 2-10 Giants before finishing at home against Detroit (who would have to travel for a Thursday/Christmas Day game) and Green Bay.
As Yogi Berra said, “It ain’t over till it’s over.” A loss in Seattle to drop them to 4-8 would clearly mean the Vikings’ hopes of returning to the playoffs this season are over, and the rest of the season would be about McCarthy’s development. That’s not a pleasant thought for the coaches, the vets on the team, or the fan base who were thinking playoffs and possible Super Bowl before the season.
Here are my keys to a Vikings win in Seattle:
1. Dust off the game plan from the Vikings’ win over the Seahawks last December for their 13th win and the upset in Detroit to reach 4-4 in Week 9 this season: in both games, the Vikings outrushed the opposition (81-59 in Seattle and 142-65 in Detroit).
They were plus-2 in turnovers in the Seattle win and even turnover-wise against the Lions. The Vikings are minus-8 in turnover ratio over their last three losses and minus-12 for the season (second-worst in the league). Despite their lofty record, the Seahawks have turnover issues too (minus 7 with 20 giveaways, second-most behind the Vikings’ 21).
Justin Jefferson scored TDs in both games, including the 39-yard game-winner with 3:51 left against the Seahawks. The defense produced big plays—a game-sealing pick by Theo Jackson against Geno Smith in Seattle and a forced fumble off David Montgomery by Blake Cashman (recovered by Harrison Smith), which led to a TD and a 10-point third-quarter lead in Detroit.
And the special teams helped more than hindered (which has been the disastrous case in the last three games), with strong games from kicker Will Reichard and punter Ryan Wright against the Seahawks, and a 61-yard kickoff return by Myles Price that led to a tying TD in the victory over the Lions.
2. Get Jefferson more involved: he had 10 catches for 144 yards and two TDs in last year’s win over the Seahawks. Only six targets last week, with four catches for 48 yards, won’t cut it for a star receiver. And how about a lot more than one target and no catches for excellent No. 2 wide receiver Jordan Addison and fine third receiver Jalen Nailor after they were basically invisible in Green Bay.
T.J. Hockenson ranks 23rd among tight ends with 299 receiving yards, which is not good for one of the highest-paid players at his position. It’s not all his fault, as he’s often been held in to block with O-line injury issues, and when Josh Oliver was out for a couple of games. McCarthy hasn’t found him consistently, but Hockenson has to show more run-after-catch and not have any drops.
3. Protect whoever plays QB–McCarthy or backup Max Brosmer–and defense pressure Darnold: McCarthy did practice on a limited basis Wednesday, doing individual drills while Brosmer handled the first unit in team drills. O’Connell hasn’t ruled McCarthy out, so we’ll see how the rest of the week plays out.
The Seahawks have 36 sacks (fourth-most, led by DE Leonard Williams and DT Byron Murphy II with six), and the Vikings need a healthy O-line with Christian Darrisaw and Donovan Jackson hurt in Green Bay and missing practice on Wednesday.
DC Brian Flores praised Darnold this week, talked about the good relationship they built last season, and said he’s happy for his success, but added, “We will blitz him.” Darnold has been very well protected with only 11 sacks on him, the fewest in the league.
The Vikings sacked Geno Smith twice last year. They need a return of Pro Bowler Jonathan Greenard after missing the last two games (shoulder). Then they can unleash him with Andrew Van Ginkel and Dallas Turner in passing situations. Van Ginkel had a big game in Seattle last year with two sacks, two tackles-for-loss, and three QB hits.
They have to make Darnold uncomfortable as the Rams did two weeks ago in forcing four interceptions in their 21-19 win in L.A.
4. Cover JSN: Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the NFL with 1,313 receiving yards (7 TDs), and he’s already set a new franchise record for receiving yards in a season in only 11 games. He’s on pace to break the NFL record of 1,964 yards by Calvin Johnson in 2012. In last year’s game between the teams, he had eight catches for 95 yards and one TD. This would be a good week for the Vikings’ Byron Murphy to play up to his Pro Bowl status from last year, but safety help will be needed to contain JSN.
The Seahawks have other talented receivers who must be controlled via the pass rush and coverage. WR Cooper Kupp is a chain-mover, WR Rashid Shaheed is a deep threat, and TE AJ Barner is a red-zone target with four TDs.
5. Will Reichard outkick Jason Myers: Reichard is having an outstanding season with only two missed kicks, while Myers has missed five field goals.
6. Limit the penalties in a raucous stadium: the Vikings had only two penalties last week and have been better on the road penalty-wise, which is unusual.
Prediction
Darnold would love to show the Vikings they made a mistake letting him out the door. I see him going early and often to Smith-Njigba via play action after the Seahawks try to run on the Vikings. JSN will have a 100-plus-yard game against a shaky secondary, but I do see the pass rush bothering Darnold and forcing a turnover or two (finally).
It’s hard to trust the Vikings offense with either McCarthy or Brosmer at the helm against a solid defense. If the Vikings don’t have Darrisaw and Jackson, it will be extra hard to move the ball.
I see a close game in the first half, then the Seahawks closing the deal late for a 24-20 win.
Around the NFL Observations for Week 13
1. I think the Packers are going to win the NFC North and will make a strong move in that direction by completing the season sweep of the Lions on Thanksgiving in Detroit with Micah Parsons leading the defensive charge with pressure from the edge and some middle blitzes (as the Vikings did effectively in their win in Detroit).
The Green Bay D sacked Jared Goff four times in their opening-day win, and they should get to him again via sacks and pressure, forcing a couple turnovers. Josh Jacobs’ return after missing last week (knee) will key an effective rushing attack, and Jordan Love will make enough plays to help secure the victory.
The Packers will move into first place when the Eagles handle the Bears on Black Friday in Philly.
2. It’s exciting that all three games on Thanksgiving have playoff implications. I like the Chiefs to continue their upward trajectory towards an AFC wild-card spot by beating the up-and-down Cowboys in Dallas. And the Ravens will get their sixth straight victory on Thanksgiving night over the Bengals, who should be competitive in this game with star QB Joe Burrow set to return from his turf toe injury that cost him the last nine games.
The biggest game on Sunday is in the AFC South with 6-5 Houston trying to close the two-game gap on 8-3 Indianapolis. The Texans’ defense is No. 1 in the NFL, and I like their chances of forcing a couple of Daniel Jones turnovers and getting this road win.
Buffalo should get back on track after losing last week in Houston by getting a road win over the fading Steelers (four losses in their last six games, which has enabled the hot Ravens to move into a first-place tie).
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