Week 5 NFL Picks: Vikings Need a Win over the Browns in London
Well, Week 4 was the worst week yet of the season.
After hovering around .500 for each of the first three weeks of the season, I’ve dug myself quite a hole after a horrific 5-11 Week 4. Alas, the only path we have is to keep moving forward, so here’s to hoping we can make up some much needed ground in Week 5.
Before we get into the Week 5 NFL picks, here is a look back at Week 4:
- Seahawks -1.5 (W)
- Vikings -2.5 (L)
- Commanders -1.5 (L)
- Bills -15.5 (L)
- Lions -9.5 (W)
- Panthers +5.5 (L)
- Chargers -6.5 (L)
- Eagles -3.5 (W)
- Titans +7.5 (L)
- Colts +3.5 (L)
- Jaguars +3.5 (W)
- Ravens -2.5 (L)
- Raiders +1.5 (W)
- Packers -6.5 (L)
- Jets +2.5 (L)
- Bengals +7.5 (L)
Season Record: 27-37
Week 5 NFL Picks
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Spread: Rams -6.5
- O/U: 46.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Rams -6.5
I’m not going to overthink this one. Thursday night games can be weird, especially with aging rosters or teams dealing with multiple injuries, but the Rams are just the superior team at this point. Puka Nacua is putting up video game numbers for LA and that should continue. Brock Purdy didn’t look great against the Jaguars, either.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns
- Spread: Vikings -3.5
- O/U: 35.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Vikings -3.5
Frankly, this has the makings for an ugly football game. The Browns are starting Dillon Gabriel for the first time, and he would be making his NFL debut during a hectic travel week after the Browns just had to travel to Detroit for a road game. Meanwhile, the Vikings offensive line has been ravaged by injuries, and the Browns defensive front should have a field day with the backups. A 35.5 point total could be very generous in this matchup, but the Vikings have more star talent.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts
- Spread: Colts -6.5
- O/U: 47.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Colts -6.5
The Colts are coming off their first loss of the season, so they should have extra motivation coming into this matchup to ensure they stay atop the AFC South. Meanwhile, the Raiders narrowly lost to the Bears this past weekend on a blocked field goal, marking their third consecutive loss. I still believe Indianapolis is a good team, and their defensive front will take advantage of a weak offensive line.
New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints
- Spread: Saints -1.5
- O/U: 41.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Giants +1.5
I just don’t see a reason to pick the Saints. They hung around with Buffalo for awhile last weekend, but at the end of the day, this team ranks bottom five in points scored and points allowed this season. They’ve lost by an average of 14 points per game, and the combination of Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo is igniting some energy into this Giants team.
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Jets
- Spread: Cowboys -2.5
- O/U: 47.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Cowboys -2.5
This game features two of the bottom-five scoring defenses in the NFL, so there should be plenty of points on the board at MetLife this weekend. As long as the Cowboys can limit turnovers, though, they will find a way to pull this one out with a consistent running game.
Denver Broncos vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Spread: Eagles -3.5
- O/U: 43.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Broncos +3.5
The Eagles are 4-0, but should they be? They have won each of their first four games by one possession, and they haven’t been the dominant team we saw in 2024 by any metric. Denver’s defense, on the other hand, is a dominant group, and they will find a way to keep this game close.
Miami Dolphins vs. Carolina Panthers
- Spread: Dolphins -1.5
- O/U: 44.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Panthers +1.5
I really don’t know what to think about these two teams other than they both are probably bad. The Dolphins finally got into the win column, but it came at the loss of Tyreek Hill for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, the Panthers followed up their 30-0 win over the Falcons by getting absolutely demolished by the Patriots. Carolina is at home, and maybe that New England loss can serve as another wake up call.
Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Spread: Texans -1.5
- O/U: 39.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Texans -1.5
The Baltimore Ravens are officially in the middle of a year from hell after Lamar Jackson went down with a hamstring injury that likely will keep him sidelined on Sunday. The Houston Texans have been erratic at best on offense, but they found a way to string together consistent drives against the Tennessee Titans last week, and now, they go up against a group that has been equally as bad or worse in just about every category.
Tennessee Titans vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Spread: Cardinals -7.5
- O/U: 41.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Cardinals -7.5
The Cardinals have lost James Conner and Trey Benson to injuries in back-to-back weeks. That puts their running game at risk. However, Kyler Murray is still a very good quarterback, and Marvin Harrison Jr. is starting to put things together. With a tough defense and just enough offense, the Cardinals pull this one out at home against an 0-4 Titans team.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Seattle Seahawks
- Spread: Seahawks -3.5
- O/U: 44.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Buccaneers +3.5
The Buccaneers couldn’t quite pull off a miraculous comeback against the Eagles last weekend, and the Seahawks are rolling after three straight wins. Both of these teams have very solid defenses, particularly run defenses, so that will put a lot of the pressure on Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, two top three picks from the 2018 NFL Draft who have seen similar paths to their current success. I still trust Mayfield a bit more than Darnold.
Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals
- Spread: Lions -10.5
- O/U: 49.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Lions -10.5
The Bengals have scored 13 total points in the past two weeks with Jake Browning at quarterback, and we still have not seen a breakout game from Chase Brown out of the backfield. Couple that with a defense that has given up 30 points per game, and we have the makings of a Lions blowout win.
Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Chargers
- Spread: Chargers -2.5
- O/U: 48.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Chargers -2.5
Last weekend was an ugly loss from the Los Angeles Chargers, but that very well could be because they played all three division rivals to begin the season before traveling to MetLife. We still haven’t seen a true breakout performance by this LA offense either, but that could be in store against a middling Commanders defense. Despite Jayden Daniels returning to the lineup, I’ll take the Chargers to get the win.
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
- Spread: Bills -7.5
- O/U: 49.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Patriots +7.5
We’ve seen this before with the Buffalo Bills. They have tendencies to kind of “play with their food” when going against an inferior opponent, and at 4-0, Buffalo is probably feeling very comfortable atop the AFC East. The Patriots have seen mixed results this season, but Drake Maye has taken big steps in his second NFL campaign. New England might not have the firepower to win this game outright, but they can keep it close.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Spread: Chiefs -3.5
- O/U: 46.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Chiefs -3.5
The return of Xavier Worthy unlocked a few things for the Chiefs offense last weekend as they totaled 37 points, marking the first time they’ve scored more than 22 points all season. The Jaguars have been one of the biggest surprises of the season at 3-1, and they very well may be a good team. However, Kansas City has Detroit in Week 6 and needs this game to be a win. They’ll get the job done.
Editor’s Note: Statistics for this article were found via Pro Football Reference.
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