Week 14 NFL Picks: McCarthy, Vikings Look to Get Back on Track for Home Stretch
It’s like digging out of a hole with a spoon.
That hole remains well below the .500 mark, but I at least had a decent week with a 9-7 record over the Thanksgiving weekend, including some great hits with the Bengals and Panthers winning outright. Hopefully, that means big things are ahead over the final five weeks of the season. Before we get into the Week 14 NFL picks, here is a look back at how I did in Week 13.
- Lions -3 (L)
- Chiefs -3.5 (L)
- Bengals +7 (W)
- Eagles -7 (L)
- Jaguars -6.5 (W)
- Browns +4.5 (L)
- Texans +4.5 (W)
- Dolphins -6 (L)
- Jets +2.5 (W)
- Buccaneers -3.5 (L)
- Panthers +10.5 (W)
- Seahawks -11.5 (W)
- Bills -3.5 (W)
- Chargers -8.5 (W)
- Broncos -6.5 (L)
- Patriots -7.5 (W)
Season Record: 86-106-1
Week 14 NFL Picks
Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions
- Spread: Lions -3
- O/U: 54.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Cowboys +3
This is a game that might end up being a must-win for both teams in terms of their playoff hopes this season despite the two teams starting the year in very different spots. Dallas continues to cruise on offense, and they’ve now won three straight games since their bye week, scoring over 30 points twice. Meanwhile, the Lions have lost three of their past five games, and they’ve had some concerning struggles on defense over the past couple weeks.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Spread: Seahawks -7
- O/U: 44.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Seahawks -7
Outside of a win against the New Orleans Saints a couple weeks ago, the second half of this season has been a nightmare for the Falcons. Their offense is inconsistent at best, and there is no trust in this defense right now. Seattle has one of the most dominant defensive units in the league, and they should cruise here.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills
- Spread: Bills -5.5
- O/U: 53.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Bills -5.5
Joe Burrow’s presence certainly injected some life into this Bengals team on Thanksgiving against the Ravens, but it might be too little too late for this team. The Bills will be able to run the ball against Cincinnati, and that will be enough to get a win here.
Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns
- Spread: Browns -4.5
- O/U: 33.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Browns -4.5
This game is the worst of the day, but it does feature two rookie quarterbacks hoping to solidify spots in the NFL. Unfortunately for Cam Ward, Cleveland’s defense is very good, and Tennessee’s isn’t all that great. Cleveland gets a win in a low-scoring affair.
Washington Commanders vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Spread: Vikings -2.5
- O/U: 42.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Vikings -2.5
Before the season started, this was a late-season matchup circled by many to have playoff implications in the NFC. That is not the story at all now as both Minnesota and Washington have been two of the biggest disappointments in the league. The one good thing in Minnesota’s favor here is their defense is still a talented group and the backbone of their team. We’ll see if J.J. McCarthy can do something against a Commanders defense that is allowing 27 points per game, but the Vikings squeak out a win here.
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
- Spread: Dolphins -2.5
- O/U: 41.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Dolphins -2.5
The Dolphins have now won three straight games and are still hopeful of a playoff push down the stretch. The Jets, on the other hand, put together a win last week against the Falcons, but they have yet to put together a quality win this season. Miami continues their winning streak.
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Spread: Buccaneers -8.5
- O/U: 42.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Buccaneers -8.5
The Buccaneers sort of got back on track with a win against the Cardinals last week, but they just look discombobulated right now. Their defense is not the ferocious unit that we’ve seen under Todd Bowles in the past, and they’ve scored fewer than 20 points in three of their past six games. That said, the Saints are not a good team, and they might not have Alvin Kamara on Sunday.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Spread: Colts -1.5
- O/U: 47.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Jaguars +1.5
The Colts are still the No. 1 scoring team in the NFL, but they’ve slowly begun to unravel a bit over the past month after an unbelievable start to the season. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have been fantastic on both sides of the ball over the past few weeks, and at home in a battle for the AFC South lead, they get the job done.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Spread: Ravens -6
- O/U: 42.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Ravens -6
That loss to the Bills felt like the final nail in the coffin for this Steelers team. Everything is falling apart between Aaron Rodgers showing frustration, their defense not being good, and Mike Tomlin’s job status being in question. The loser of this game is probably not going to the playoffs, but it feels like the Ravens have one last gasp of air in them down the stretch to make a push.
Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Spread: Broncos -7.5
- O/U: 40.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Raiders +7.5
I’m back and forth here. On one hand, there really isn’t a reason for the Raiders to hang with a 10-2 team regardless of being at home or not. However, the Broncos have made a habit of making games closer than they should be all season. I’ll go with my gut and say Denver is in the middle of another close one.
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
- Spread: Packers -6.5
- O/U: 44.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Bears +6.5
The Bears were very impressive on Black Friday against the Eagles. They played the way the Eagles did on their way to a Super Bowl last season, simply being more physical than their opponent. This is the real test though with a matchup with their most hated rivals at Lambeau Field. It should be a very good game that goes down to the wire, but the Packers probably pull it out late as they have so many times before.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Spread: Rams -7.5
- O/U: 47.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Rams -7.5
The Rams were stunned by the Carolina Panthers last week, but that shouldn’t derail them. This team is too talented, and Matthew Stafford is playing to well for that to be the game that sends them into a spiral. They’ll have some extra juice this weekend to beat a division rival.
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Spread: Chiefs -3.5
- O/U: 41.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Texans +3.5
The Houston Texans might be really good. Meanwhile, the Chiefs continue to look very vulnerable after a loss to the Cowboys last week. Houston’s defense has caused fits for opponents all season, and even with Patrick Mahomes on the other side, I think the Texans pull out a statement win on Sunday night.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Spread: Eagles -3
- O/U: 40.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Chargers +3
The Eagles’ defensive front very well could cause some troubles for the Chargers’ offense, especially if Justin Herbert is hampered because of his hand injury. However, this is another team that just seems to be disjointed right now. They haven’t been able to run the football. This is at the very least a field goal game with the Chargers pushing.
Editor’s Note: Information from ESPN and Pro Football Reference helped with this article.
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