Week 13 NFL Picks: Sam Darnold Gets Revenge on the Vikings
Well, that was ugly.
It doesn’t get much worse than a 2-10-1 record for the week, and it’s going to take a miracle in order to get back to .500 this season. Still, we keep trucking along, and maybe we’ll get a Thanksgiving miracle this weekend. Before we get into the Week 13 NFL picks, here is a look back at how I did in Week 12.
- Bills -6 (L)
- Steelers +2.5 (L)
- Patriots -6 (L)
- Giants -10 (L)
- Vikings +6 (L)
- Seahawks -13.5 (L)
- Colts +3.5 (W)
- Ravens -13.5 (L)
- Browns +4 (W)
- Jaguars -3 (T)
- Eagles -3.5 (L)
- Saints -1.5 (L)
- Buccaneers +7 (L)
- 49ers -7 (W)
Season Record: 77-99-1
Week 13 NFL Picks
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions
- Spread: Lions -3
- O/U: 48.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Lions -3
Thanksgiving Day gets started with a key division rivalry game in the NFC North. The Packers and Lions are fighting for a Wild Card spot in the NFC with the Lions on the outside of the playoff picture. Green Bay’s defense looked virtually unstoppable against the Vikings on Sunday, but Detroit is at home for this matchup. They get revenge for Week 1’s debacle against Green Bay.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Spread: Chiefs -3.5
- O/U: 52.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Chiefs -3.5
The Dallas Cowboys threw a big old wrench into the NFC race for the No. 1 seed when they toppled the Philadelphia Eagles last week, but can they do that again on a short week? I have my doubts, and the Chiefs are going to take advantage of a suspect Dallas defense.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Spread: Ravens -7
- O/U: 52.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Bengals +7
Joe Burrow is returning this week. While it’s probably too late for the Bengals to make a playoff push, they can play spoiler for a number of teams over the coming month. The Ravens are one of those teams, and Cincinnati at least keeps this game close.
Chicago Bears vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Spread: Eagles -7
- O/U: 44.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Eagles -7
The Bears have won a bunch of close games this year, but this Eagles team is going to be coming into this matchup with a big chip on their shoulder after a loss to the Cowboys. Both teams need a win to stay in the hunt for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and Philadelphia’s defensive front will find a way to overwhelm Chicago’s offensive line.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Cleveland Browns
- Spread: 49ers -4.5
- O/U: 36.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Browns +4.5
Shedeur Sanders got a win in his first NFL start, and he played a decent game. However, the difference in this game might just be Cleveland’s ferocious defense led by Myles Garrett. San Francisco has been struggling on offense in recent weeks, and while they might still win this game, it feels like a low-scoring matchup where a field goal could make the difference.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans
- Spread: Jaguars -6.5
- O/U: 41.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Jaguars -6.5
The Jaguars could fall into a trap here looking ahead to next week’s game against the Indianapolis Colts. That being said, sitting at 7-4 in a tight AFC playoff race, there is no room for a slip up. Jacksonville controls this game from start to finish.
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
- Spread: Colts -4.5
- O/U: 44.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Texans +4.5
Houston’s defense continues to be one of the most impressive units in the NFL, and Indianapolis has started coming back down to earth over the past month, particularly on defense. We’ll see if Jonathan Taylor can get back on track after an inefficient game against the Chiefs, but Houston should make this a close game.
New Orleans Saints vs. Miami Dolphins
- Spread: Dolphins -6
- O/U: 42.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Dolphins -6
New Orleans had a debacle of a game against an Atlanta Falcons team without Michael Penix or Drake London, and they lost Alvin Kamara along the way. He probably won’t be suiting up this weekend, and Miami is trying to make one last push for the playoffs. They should win this game relatively easily at home.
Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Jets
- Spread: Falcons -2.5
- O/U: 39.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Jets +2.5
It’s back-to-back road games for the Falcons after their trip to New Orleans last weekend, which will be a challenge, particularly if they don’t have Drake London again. New York’s defense will make things hard on Kirk Cousins too, so the Jets might just pull out a win here.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Spread: Buccaneers -3.5
- O/U: 44.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Buccaneers -3.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers might be in panic mode after a third consecutive loss last week. However, they have a chance to get back on track against a Cardinals team that has become increasingly pass heavy without Trey Benson. Benson could return for this game, but Tampa Bay needs to come into this week with a sense of urgency at home.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Carolina Panthers
- Spread: Rams -10.5
- O/U: 44.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Panthers +10.5
The Carolina Panthers have put themselves in the mix for a playoff spot while the Los Angeles Rams have looked like the most consistent team in the NFC all year long. This is an important game for both teams, but Carolina keeps it close at home behind the strength of their defense.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Seattle Seahawks
- Spread: Seahawks -11.5
- O/U: 41.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Seahawks -11.5
J.J. McCarthy likely won’t be playing on Sunday, which means the Vikings are going to roll out undrafted free agent Max Brosmer at quarterback. It’s a very tough spot for the rookie as Minnesota is traveling to Seattle to take on a team that has featured one of the best pass defenses this year. The Seahawks win big.
Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Spread: Bills -3.5
- O/U: 47.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Bills -3.5
The Bills have lost two of their past three games, and they need to get back on track before the homestretch in December. The Pittsburgh Steelers are proving to be the same team that we’ve seen for many years now where they ride their defense to a record around .500.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Spread: Chargers -8.5
- O/U: 40.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Chargers -8.5
The Chargers will be well-rested coming off their bye, and the Raiders just put together a very uninspiring showing against the Cleveland Browns. The offensive line is a problem for Las Vegas, and the Chargers should cruise to a win here.
Denver Broncos vs. Washington Commanders
- Spread: Broncos -6.5
- O/U: 43.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Broncos -6.5
The Broncos have leaned on their strengths to get to nine wins this year, and that has meant using their defense to create turnovers and extra opportunities for their offense to score. Washington’s defense is not nearly as good, and Denver will wreak havoc on Marcus Mariota on Sunday night. Denver wins big.
New York Giants vs. New England Patriots
- Spread: Patriots -7.5
- O/U: 46.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Patriots -7.5
It might just be time to accept that the New England Patriots are the best team in the NFL. They’ve won nine consecutive games. Drake Maye has continued to play like an MVP candidate, and this defense is nasty. New York has been eliminated from playoff contention, and they are playing their second straight road game. New England pulls off a big win.
Editor’s Note: Information from ESPN and Pro Football Reference helped with this article.
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