Week 12 NFL Picks: Can the Minnesota Vikings Upset the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau?
Well, it’s a start I guess.
I dug myself a pretty big hole over the past few weeks, but I bounced back in the smallest way possible with an 8-7 record in Week 11. It’s something. Now it’s time to build on it heading into Week 12. Before we dig into this week’s NFL picks, here is a look back at how I did in Week 11.
- Jets +13.5 (W)
- Dolphins -2.5 (W)
- Panthers +3.5 (W)
- Bills -5.5 (W)
- Texans -6.5 (L)
- Vikings -3.5 (L)
- Packers -7.5 (L)
- Bengals +5.5 (L)
- Chargers -2.5 (L)
- Seahawks +3.5 (W)
- 49ers -2.5 (W)
- Ravens -7.5 (L)
- Broncos +3.5 (W)
- Lions +2.5 (L)
- Cowboys -3.5 (W)
Season Record: 75-89
Week 12 NFL Picks
Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans
- Spread: Bills -6
- O/U: 43.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Bills -6
Davis Mills is getting the start for Houston in this game, and we just saw him struggle with the Tennessee Titans. Granted, this matchup will be at home, and the Texans defense has been a group that has proven to be a big problem for opposing quarterbacks this season. Even still, I’ll take superhero Josh Allen to come through again.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Chicago Bears
- Spread: Bears -2.5
- O/U: 45.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Steelers +2.5
If there’s one thing the Bears do well this year, it’s pull wins from losses. It’s very difficult to say exactly how good this team is right now at 7-3 with a -6 point differential. However, this game will either feature Mason Rudolph or Aaron Rodgers with a broken wrist at quarterback. That means the Steelers likely will be running the ball a lot, but the Bears have had one of the worst run defenses in the league this season. We’ll see if it’s Rodgers getting one more win against his old divisional foes, but either way, Steelers eke this one out.
New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals
- Spread: Patriots -7
- O/U: 49.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Patriots -7
This was already going to be a difficult game for the Bengals, but now they are going to be playing it without their best receiver as Ja’Marr Chase serves his one-game suspension. The Patriots also have extra rest to their advantage having played last Thursday. New England wins big.
New York Giants vs. Detroit Lions
- Spread: Lions -10
- O/U: 50.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Lions -10
The Lions have to be seething after the Eagles completely shut down their offense last weekend. Detroit also suddenly finds itself third in the NFC North division. Jaxson Dart might be back in the lineup for the Giants, but it’s coming at a bad time against a Detroit team that should come into this game with a chip on its shoulder.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
- Spread: Packers -6
- O/U: 41.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Vikings +6
Things look bad in Minnesota right now, but the one thing that was a positive last Sunday against the Bears was J.J. McCarthy did not take a sack all game. The offensive line is as close to fully healthy as it’s been all season, and it’s starting to show. This weekend will be one of the biggest tests they’ve faced yet against Micah Parsons, but Green Bay has had trouble blowing out opponents this year. The Vikings are playing with their backs against the wall and keep this game close.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Tennessee Titans
- Spread: Seahawks -13.5
- O/U: 40.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Seahawks -13.5
This is a get-right game for the Seahawks. Sam Darnold played a horrendous game against the Los Angeles Rams last weekend (something Vikings fans know all too well about that matchup), but the Titans do not have a good defense. Seattle takes care of business and gets the ship back on track.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Spread: Chiefs -3.5
- O/U: 49.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Colts +3.5
This game will be one that we look back on in January as one that decided the fate of the AFC playoff bracket. The Colts have a chance to answer once and for all if they are a real contender in the AFC. The Chiefs cannot afford to take another loss if they want to make a push for the playoffs during the final third of the season. I’ve ridden with Indy all season, and they are coming off a bye week. Let’s see if they can get it done.
New York Jets vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Spread: Ravens -13.5
- O/U: 44.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Ravens -13.5
Can two 13.5-point spreads cover in one weekend? We shall see, but the Baltimore Ravens are cruising since Lamar Jackson came back to the field. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the New York Jets are making a change at quarterback with Tyrod Taylor getting the nod this week. That smells like a team that is running out of options and is throwing the bowl of spaghetti against the wall in a last-ditch effort to see if anything sticks. This bowl of pasta hasn’t been cooked all the way through. The Ravens cruise here.
Cleveland Browns vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Spread: Raiders -4
- O/U: 36.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Browns +4
This matchup stinks. Shedeur Sanders is making his first NFL start though, so there is a bit of intrigue with that. This pick is less based on that as much as it is based on the Raiders defense being bad against the pass and Cleveland having Myles Garrett on the other side.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Spread: Jaguars -3
- O/U: 47.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Jaguars -3
I simply cannot figure this Jaguars team out. This team started out the year by beating the 49ers and Chiefs, proceeded to get dominated by the Rams and Seahawks while beating the Raiders by a single point, and then looked like world beaters against the Chargers last weekend. Arizona is struggling though, and Jacksonville should be able to pull out a win here. Right?
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Spread: Eagles -3.5
- O/U: 47.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Eagles -3.5
The Eagles should be seeing blood in the water in the NFC right now. Their win over the Lions means they control their own destiny to the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and their only real competition right now is the Los Angeles Rams, who have a tougher schedule down the stretch. A win over the Cowboys also virtually ensures another NFC East title.
Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
- Spread: Saints -1.5
- O/U: 39.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Saints -1.5
Neither of these teams are making the playoffs this year, so these matchups serve as Super Bowls for these two franchises this season. Unfortunately for Atlanta, they’ll be heading into this road game without Michael Penix and Drake London and with New Orleans coming off a bye. The Saints also have the weakest strength of schedule in the league for the rest of the year, so could this be the start of a last-minute playoff push? (No, definitely not, but it would be kind of funny to see them go 6-11 and blow a chance at picking a top QB prospect.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Spread: Rams -7
- O/U: 49.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Buccaneers +7
Both of these teams are very solid, and this easily could serve as a playoff preview. However, this Rams defense proved they are still one of the best units in the league, and Matthew Stafford is just a bit better than Baker Mayfield. Tampa Bay keeps this one close, but I think the Rams pull off a win late.
Carolina Panthers vs. San Francisco 49ers
- Spread: 49ers -7
- O/U: 48.5 points
Frey’s Pick: 49ers -7
This a sneaky important matchup in terms of seeding in the NFC. The 7-4 49ers hold the No. 7 seed right now, and the Carolina Panthers have scratched and clawed their way to 6-5 with a puncher’s chance at snagging one of those Wild Card spots. A head-to-head tiebreaker over San Francisco would be huge. This is where their youth gets the better of them though. This is a team that is untested in high pressure games, and the 49ers get the win at home.
Editor’s Note: Information from ESPN and Pro Football Reference helped with this article.
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