Week 11 NFL Picks: Vikings Look to Get Back in the Mix in the NFC North
It’s been a really rough season for the picks.
Back-to-back 5-9 weeks have really put me behind the 8-ball on the road to .500, but there is still plenty of time left in the season. Hopefully, Week 11 is a lucky one. Before we get into the Week 11 NFL picks, here is a look back at how I fared last weekend:
- Broncos -9.5 (L)
- Colts -6.5 (L)
- Bears -4.5 (L)
- Dolphins +8.5 (W)
- Vikings +4.5 (L)
- Browns -2.5 (L)
- Buccaneers -2.5 (L)
- Panthers -5.5 (L)
- Texans +1.5 (W)
- Seahawks -6.5 (W)
- 49ers +4.5 (L)
- Lions -8.5 (W)
- Steelers +2.5 (L)
- Eagles +2.5 (W)
Season Record: 67-82
Week 11 NFL Picks
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots
- Spread: Patriots -13.5
- O/U: 43.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Jets +13.5
I bet against both the Jets and Patriots last weekend, and neither one of them panned out. New York did just make trades to send out Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, but they followed those trades up with a win over the Cleveland Browns. The Patriots have been dominant with Drake Maye playing like an MVP candidate, but 13.5 points is a lot in a Thursday night timeslot that has given us a bunch of close games. Patriots likely win, but Jets cover.
Washington Commanders vs. Miami Dolphins
- Spread: Dolphins -2.5
- O/U: 47.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Dolphins -2.5
The Miami Dolphins made a last-ditch effort to save their season last week with a dominant win over the Buffalo Bills. Now, they and the Washington Commanders meet in Madrid for the first NFL regular-season game ever played in Spain. Both have 3-7 records in a must-win scenario to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Dolphins simply have a bit more firepower right now, and Devon Achane’s explosion in Week 10 could be the spark that turns their season around in the second half. Take a look at their schedule after this game — there’s still a playoff path ahead for Miami.
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Spread: Falcons -3.5
- O/U: 42.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Panthers +3.5
The Panthers dominated the Falcons in what was a surprising 30-0 win at the time for Carolina’s first win of the season. Now, the Panthers have shown that they should be taken seriously as a contender for a Wild Card spot this year at 5-5. Rico Dowdle has been a monster for them out of the backfield, and Atlanta’s defense has given up nearly 150 rushing yards per game this season. Carolina will control the line of scrimmage and the clock on their way to a road win.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills
- Spread: Bills -5.5
- O/U: 48.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Bills -5.5
Both of these teams are coming off disappointing losses, but the Bills were impacted far more by losing to the Dolphins and watching the Patriots beat the Buccaneers. They need to come into this game with a sense of urgency that was lacking last week, and I think they get the job done at home.
Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
- Spread: Texans -6.5
- O/U: 38.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Texans -6.5
There’s not a lot to say here. The Titans have lost four straight games for the second time this season and have not been very competitive this year. Houston is still fighting to get back into the AFC playoff hunt, and they will get a big road win here to get back to .500.
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Spread: Vikings -3.5
- O/U: 48.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Vikings -3.5
The Bears have been on a bit of a roll lately with a 4-1 record following their bye week. They have been powered by a very good offense, but their defense has proven to be a bit of a problem, allowing 20 or more points in four of those five games and 30 or more points twice. The Vikings are sitting in the basement and need to win these crucial divisional games to get back into the hunt. Brian Flores will throw some intricate schemes at Caleb Williams on Sunday to fluster him, and Minnesota picks up the win.
Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants
- Spread: Packers -7.5
- O/U: 43.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Packers -7.5
The Packers were unable to sneak out of Monday night with a home win against the Philadelphia Eagles, and as a result, they tumbled down the NFC North standings. The New York Giants are in the middle of a frustrating season that has seen them snatch defeat from the jaws of victory multiple times. This time around, the Packers will put a big win together.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Spread: Steelers -5.5
- O/U: 48.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Bengals +5.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit a rough patch lately, losing three of their past four games. Last week’s struggles came by way of a lethargic offense, and coming off a bye, the Cincinnati Bengals will be well-rested and ready to roll even without Trey Hendrickson in the lineup. Cincinnati wins a close game.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Spread: Chargers -2.5
- O/U: 43.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Chargers -2.5
The Jaguars have not had a great pass defense this year, and they are now down Travis Hunter for the rest of the year. Justin Herbert should have a strong day even with some of their offensive line injuries that LA has gone through this year.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Spread: Rams -3.5
- O/U: 48.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Seahawks +3.5
Both of these teams enter the weekend not only with the chance to take over the top spot in the NFC West, but they are right in the mix for the top seed in the conference. Seattle’s elite defense will find a way to contain Matthew Stafford despite him turning back the clock in his age-37 season, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba will get the better of LA’s secondary.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Spread: 49ers -2.5
- O/U: 47.5 points
Frey’s Pick: 49ers -2.5
Neither one of these teams looked very good in their Week 10 games with each defense giving up over 40 points in losses. I’m going to trust the 49ers to get things back together before I trust the Cardinals.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
- Spread: Ravens -7.5
- O/U: 38.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Ravens -7.5
Cleveland’s defense remains a formidable unit, but the Baltimore Ravens have been jolted back to life by the return of Lamar Jackson. With Jackson back in the lineup, and Derrick Henry pounding through defenders for four quarters, Cleveland has a big task on their hands. We’ll see if they can hold up down the stretch of the game, but I’ll pick the Ravens to win by double digits.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
- Spread: Chiefs -3.5
- O/U: 44.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Broncos +3.5
The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a bye week, and they have always been good in those scenarios. However, Denver isn’t too far behind in terms of rest having played last Thursday night. Bo Nix has not been too impressive this year, but this Broncos defense is something special. That gritty unit will keep this game close.
Detroit Lions vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Spread: Eagles -2.5
- O/U: 46.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Lions +2.5
The Eagles narrowly escaped Monday night with a win over the Green Bay Packers, and now they head back home for another NFC North opponent in the Detroit Lions. This game will come down to the wire, but I think we get an upset.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Spread: Cowboys -3.5
- O/U: 50.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Cowboys -3.5
Dallas’ defense saw some improvements at the trade deadline, which should help them slow down an already lethargic Raiders offense. If the Cowboys continue to put up points like they have all season, they should win this game relatively easily.
Editor’s Note: Statistics for this article were found via Pro Football Reference.
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