The Vikings Have One Playoff Hail Mary
It’s the longest of longshots, but the Minnesota Vikings have one Hail Mary playoff scenario left. The club has a 4-8 record and will likely be eliminated from postseason contention in a week or two. But there’s a small chance at the impossible if Minnesota wins its next five games.
The Vikings still have one longshot playoff Hail Mary, a narrow scenario that keeps their postseason hopes alive if several results break their way.
It’s a pretty straightforward if-this-then-that ordeal.
Vikings Have One Playoff Window Cracked Open by a Whisker
It’s probably not happening, but hear us out.
Vikings Must Win 5; Packers Must Lose 5
The mission statement for Minnesota’s playoff hopes is not complicated. It is next to impossible, yes — but very easy to comprehend.
To make the postseason after losing their last four games, the Vikings must win out. Then, they must watch scoreboards for the next five weeks, hoping the Packers lose every single game. And based on Green Bay’s recent performances, that’s probably not happening. Matt LaFleur’s team would probably have to encounter a barrage of injuries to create Minnesota’s playoff lane.
The outlook is grim for those still maintaining the sliver of hope regarding Minnesota’s playoff aspirations.
The Vikings’ Schedule
If Minnesota wants to pull off the shockingly unthinkable, here’s the gauntlet for the rest of the way:
- Week 14: vs. Washington Commanders
- Week 15: at Dallas Cowboys
- Week 16: at New York Giants
- Week 17: vs. Detroit Lions (Christmas)
- Week 18: vs. Green Bay Packers
Oddsmakers won’t favor Minnesota in most of those meetings, though the Vikings are expected to prevail on Sunday against Washington. Kevin O’Connell’s team would have to start playing fabulous football — out of nowhere — to hold up their end of the bargain. They probably would’ve shown flashes of that by now. They have not.
The Packers’ Schedule
Then, for the funny part: Green Bay’s schedule is actually daunting. If the stakes were different — if the Vikings only needed to win three of five or four of five, for example — fans could reasonably expect the Packers to lose a game or two from this menu:
- Week 14: vs. Chicago Bears
- Week 15: at Denver Broncos
- Week 16: at Chicago Bears
- Week 17: at Baltimore Ravens
- Week 18: at Minnesota Vikings
That five-game docket has zero easy games, and Green Bay may post a losing record to close out the season. That could happen.
It’s just that the purple team needs Green Bay to lose out. Unlikely.
Everything Else Is Irrelevant
Minnesota has encountered this position before: needing teams to lose with the aforementioned if-this-then-that scenarios. This one is different.
No other games matter to Minnesota. While the San Francisco 49ers and Carolina Panthers appear to be in the way of the NFC Wildcard chase, they do not matter to Minnesota’s theoretical parlay. The 49ers and Panthers can lose all their games or win all their games; the outcome does not affect O’Connell and Co.
It’s a strict stipulation: MIN must win all five, and GB must collapse.
Week 14 Predictions
SI.com’s Iain MacMillan picked the Bears to take down Green Bay this weekend and explained, “It’s time to start believing in the Chicago Bears. Despite the metrics showing they aren’t nearly as good as their record, they find ways to win games. Whether it’s against an inferior or superior opponent, they’ll squeak out a win via strong play by their offensive line, winning the turnover battle, and taking advantage of late-game opportunities.”
“The Packers have been the complete opposite of that this season. Their underlying metrics are elite, but they’ve let moments and games slip through their grasp more than once. The Packers’ defense ranks outside the top 10 in opponent rush success rate, while the Bears are first in offensive rush success rate. That could be the difference-maker, and it’s enough for me to back the Bears as my upset pick of the week.”
Bleacher Report‘s Brad Gagnon chose Minnesota over Washington: “The Commanders could have trouble battling back from a second consecutive crushing overtime loss to all but end their season. The Vikings are a mess too, but they’re back at home where they have put up fights against Philadelphia, Baltimore and Chicago in their last three outings. Of course, keep an eye on the statuses of both teams’ quarterbacks here.”
Washington has lost five of its last five games against Minnesota, believe it or not. The only time the Commanders prevailed in recent memory was with Kirk Cousins at the helm in 2016.
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