Vikings Playoff Math Is Back from the Dead
Just when many left them for dead, the Minnesota Vikings resurrected last week by defeating the Detroit Lions at Ford Field by a score of 27-24. The win enhanced their playoff math, if only by a smidgen.
After a crucial midseason win, the Vikings have crept back into the NFC playoff picture — and the once-dead postseason math suddenly looks alive again.
Here’s a look at where the playoff odds stand entering Week 10.
Vikings Playoff Odds after Week 9
There is hope — if Minnesota continues to win.
Pro Football Focus: 26%
Last Week: 14%
Thanks to the dub over Detroit, Minnesota’s playoff odds climbed 12%, according to PFF.
PFF considers the Vikings the 13th-best team at the moment, and Thomas Valentine explained, “The picture with J.J. McCarthy under center for the Vikings was murky heading into Week 9. McCarthy had barely played a lick of football in 2025 and was entering the fray behind a banged-up offensive line.”
“Instead, the Vikings pulled off the upset on the road, defeating a very good Lions team 27-24 as McCarthy scored three total touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) and registered a 63.5 overall PFF grade. McCarthy wasn’t perfect and leaned on the defense, as well as the performance of Justin Jefferson (81.4 grade; 13th), but he showed that there’s something in there. And that’s enough.”
PFF thinks there’s hope.
Sportsbooks: 21%
Last Week: 12%
Oddsmakers believe the Eagles and Bills have the clearest path to the playoff tournament, a sharp change from last week, when the Colts led the way. Former Vikings passer Daniel Jones created five turnovers by himself in Week 9 during a loss to the Steelers, causing Vegas to seriously pump the brakes on Indianapolis.
Minnesota’s odds will climb even further with a win over Baltimore on Sunday.
Sharp Football Analysis‘ Will Mauro on Minnesota: “J.J. McCarthy’s first start back since Week 2 was a night-and-day difference from the product we saw from Carson Wentz over the last two weeks. While Wentz mustered just 1 touchdown pass with 3 interceptions in his final two games, McCarthy found the end zone three times (twice by air, once by land) with just 1 interception on a deep shot late in the second quarter.”
“Despite this upgrade under center, the Vikings still hold the bottom spot in the NFC North at .500, and they’re staring down the barrel of the NFL’s hardest schedule for the remainder of the campaign (down from the third easiest).”
Power Rankings Guru: 19%
Last Week: 8%
PRG factors in strength of schedule, quality of victory, and a handful of other metrics to paint a clearer playoff picture. According to its latest update, the Philadelphia Eagles hold the league’s best odds to reach the postseason at 96%, while the New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, and New Orleans Saints have all but been erased from contention.
As for Minnesota, PRG slots the Vikings 18th in its overall rankings — squarely in the “still alive, but work to do” tier.
ESPN FPI: 13.6%
Last Week: 4.7%
The good news? Minnesota’s playoff math increased by 289% after beating the Lions. The bad news? A 13.6% shot at the dance is still pretty damn puny.
On the other side this weekend, ESPN claims the Ravens have a 50.1% chance of reaching the postseason, which is wild because Baltimore’s record is worse than Minnesota’s.
ESPN FPI has all but ruled out the Saints, Jets, Titans, Dolphins, Browns, and Giants from playoff contention.
Bleacher Report‘s Brent Sobleski noted on the Vikings this week, “J.J. McCarthy’s return to the lineup provided the Vikings with the presence needed to snap the squad’s previous two-game losing streak. Considering Carson Wentz had been playing through what became a season-ending injury, McCarthy provided a significant upgrade after returning from a high ankle sprain.”
“The 22-year-old is still in his first full season in the NFL after suffering his own season-ending injury last year, but he has the confidence of his team. His maturation can help a Minnesota squad that may be in the NFC North cellar but is only 1.5 games behind the first-place Green Bay Packers.”
DVOA: 10.4%
Last Week: 2.4%
Beating Detroit increased Minnesota’s odds for the postseason five-fold per DVOA, but 10.4% remains an extreme long shot. The Vikings basically have the same chances of reaching the playoffs as the Atlanta Falcons, and most have written them off after a recent tumble.
According to DVOA, through nine weeks, the most likely Super Bowl outcome is the Seattle Seahawks and Buffalo Bills.
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