Vikings Playoff Chances Take a Grim Turn
The 2025 campaign certainly isn’t a lost cause for the Minnesota Vikings; it’s just that oddsmakers don’t believe the club is on the right path, as the playoff math dwindled last weekend courtesy of a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Minnesota Vikings have 13 games left in the 2025 season, and as of now, the math for the playoffs doesn’t look too fancy after a Week 4 loss.
There’s plenty of time to rebound, though, a mission that starts this Sunday in London with a meeting against the mediocre Cleveland Browns.
A Look at the Vikings’ Week 5 Playoff Math
The odds have gone in the wrong direction.
Odds to Make Playoffs: 38% | PlayoffStatus.com
Last Week: 48% (-10% decrease)
Playoff Status looks at wins and losses, total games played, wins and losses from division and conference mates — then that’s about it. It doesn’t factor in the team’s roster talent or strength of schedule. It’s just a wins and losses metric.
And for a 2-2 team inside the NFC North, with 13 games left, it’s 38% through the first quarter of the regular season, according to Playoff Status.
The Philadelphia Eagles lead the way at 89%.
NFL.com‘s Eric Edholm ranked Minnesota at No. 17 in Week 5 power rankings and explained, “It’s getting worrisome to think what might happen if the offensive line doesn’t quickly get right. Carson Wentz was Croked on Sunday in Ireland, taking six sacks and 14 hits. He deserves a ton of credit for rallying the Vikings against the Steelers, throwing two fourth-quarter touchdown passes to make it a game, but that pace is unsustainable in the face of such pass-rush pressure.”
“Now, Minnesota must island hop over to England and face a Browns defense that hasn’t allowed more than 277 yards (while piling up 11 total sacks) in the first four contests. The Vikings’ beaten-up offensive line will have its hands full all game, with the hope being that they can return stateside in relatively good shape. That feels far from certain now.”
27%: Power Rankings Guru
Last Week: 38% (-11% decrease)
PRG uses every team’s current talent level, strength of schedule played, strength of schedule remaining, etc., to determine its power rankings and subsequent playoff odds.
Between the Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Rams, and Seattle Seahawks, already playing pretty impressive football, there may not be playoff spots left for teams like Minnesota, Dallas, Washington, or Atlanta.
The margin of error is suddenly slim in the NFC.
PRG, for curious minds, calls the Buffalo Bills the favorite to win the Super Bowl.
25%: Sportsbooks
Last Week: 38.4% (-13% decrease)
Minnesota’s moneyline is at +290 to reach the postseason, and as the saying sometimes goes, “Vegas knows.”
Sportsbooks don’t consider the Vikings a serious playoff contender or really anywhere close to it. Oddsmakers believe Minnesota has a similar chance of making the playoffs as the Houston Texans (+220) and Arizona Cardinals (+320).
The odds will probably climb to around 35% if Kevin O’Connell’s team takes down Kevin Stefanski’s team on Sunday.
Bleacher Report‘s Gary Davenport on the Vikings: “The Minnesota Vikings have a quarterback problem. They had one before starter J.J. McCarthy got hurt — the second-year pro played one great quarter and seven dreadful ones before getting hurt. And now they have one with Carson Wentz. Don’t pay attention to the final score of this game — it was 24-6 at one point before the Vikings made it interesting late.”
“Wentz’s 350 passing yards and two scores are also misleading, as much of that production came with the game all but decided. Wentz threw a pair of interceptions and was dropped six times in Dublin behind a patchwork Vikings line that has been a problem much of the season. Add in a Minnesota ground game that averaged 3.5 yards a carry, and these Vikings look less like last year’s 14-3 squad by the week.”
13.7%: DVOA
Last Week: 24.4% (-11% decrease)
DVOA uses the most complicated formula to assess playoff odds, and it is also the lowest on the Vikings. Its method accounts for offense, defense, special teams, strength of schedule, and quarterback performance — so the whole shebang.
Generally speaking, DVOA calls Minnesota the league’s 21st-best team. Also known as 12th-w0rst.
The Chicago Bears have passed the Vikings in playoff DVOA odds, checking in around 18%.
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