Why the 2025 Vikings Never Fully Clicked
Most fans pegged the 2025 Minnesota Vikings as a fringe playoff contender, capable of notching double-digit wins if the first-time starting quarterback played at an average level. Instead, the club has a 6-8 record entering Week 16 — and here’s how that happened.
The Vikings showed flashes, but the week-to-week product kept snapping back to the same bad habits that made sustained offense feel impossible.
Minnesota cannot reach the postseason and will hope to finish the season on a high note to inspire confidence in 2026 and beyond.
Where the 2025 Vikings Kept Breaking
It all went wrong for the Vikings way too early.
Utterly Rotten 3rd Down Conversion % on Offense
Minnesota’s 3rd down issues have quietly become one of the clearest reasons this season has gone sideways. By the numbers, the Vikings sit near the bottom of the league in conversion rate, and that inefficiency has consistently stalled drives that should have stayed alive.
The contrast has shown up week to week. Against Washington, J.J. McCarthy and the offense were sharp on third down, converting six of eleven chances and cruising to a 31–0 win. In Dallas, the opposite played out. Third downs were a mess, with just two conversions all night, forcing Minnesota into survival mode. The difference was fourth down, where the Vikings went a perfect three-for-three and avoided the kind of collapse that third-down failures usually invite.
But outside of some recent optimism, ranking 31st in offensive 3rd Down conversion rate has doomed the Vikings. It would doom any team. Minnesota converts 31.2% of 3rd Downs, only besting the Tennessee Titans in last place. Bad teams fail to make the best of 3rd Downs.
Poor QB Play for 13 Weeks
Here’s the stat to know about J.J. McCarthy:
J.J. McCarthy,
EPA+CPOE,
NFL Ranking in 2025:
Week 1-13: 32nd
Week 14-15: 5th
And Carson Wentz, who filled in for McCarthy during McCarthy’s high ankle sprain recovery, ranks 21st in the same metric.
Therefore, before Week 14, the Vikings either showcased the very worst quarterback in the NFL — or the 12th-worst in Wentz’s case. Max Brosmer also got in on the fun in Week 13, and he played worse than McCarthy.
Downright lousy quarterback play prior to two weeks ago murdered the Vikings’ chances of a winning season.
Our Cole Smith argued this week that McCarthy must get Justin Jefferson involved in the offense: “McCarthy has been productive, and almost just as importantly, he is playing confidently. He doesn’t appear to be overthinking his mechanics every time he drops back. Instead, he’s throwing with decisiveness.”
“He did the Griddy as he ran in a one-yard touchdown against the Cowboys, even though Kevin O’Connell had asked him not to celebrate before scoring. Consistency is key over the final three games. McCarthy needs to continue building on what he’s done and show he hasn’t only found success because he’s played against two poor pass defenses. He also needs to show that he can get Justin Jefferson involved.”
Refusal to Run the Football
What does a team do when it features the league’s worst quarterback for 75% of the season, according to head coach Kevin O’Connell? Throw the ball 60% time.
Yes, the Vikings rank eighth-most in pass playcall percentage and eighth-least in rush playcall percentage. Those rankings should be reversed when a franchise showcases poor quarterback performance.
But Minnesota has not done that, preferring to fling the rock at a 60% clip with historically low quarterback efficiency. The seriously funny (not funny) part is that the Vikings rank 12th in yards per rush on offense. They’re a Top 12 rushing offense when they’re in the mood — that runs the ball at a Bottom 8 frequency clip.
The Vikings should be able to run the football this weekend against the New York Giants. Star Tribune‘s Ben Goessling wrote this weekend, “Vikings should be able to run on Giants: New York has given up the second-most rushing yards in the league this season, while allowing more expected points added per run than any defense in the NFL.”
“Especially if the Vikings want to keep the Giants’ pass rush from pursuing J.J. McCarthy, they could turn to Aaron Jones Sr. and Jordan Mason, while continuing to give fullback C.J. Ham a larger workload as they’ve done the past two weeks.”
Most Giveaways in the NFL
Minnesota surrenders the ball to opponents via interceptions and fumbles 1.9 times per game, which is the very worst in the NFL. Teams cannot rank at the very bottom of the league in giveaways and expect to be taken seriously or reach the postseason.
In 2024, the Vikings ranked near the middle of the league in giveaways but second in takeaways. The good outweighed the bad. Not this year, as the same takeaway clip is not quite as prevalent.
The turnover split has killed Minnesota and will continue to do so until it’s repaired. McCarthy’s maturation should go a long way in stabilizing the turnover woes.
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