The Bizarre Way the Vikings Could Still Sneak into the Playoffs
Last week, we told you about the Hail Mary scenario in which the Minnesota Vikings reach the postseason, needing to win all their remaining games while hoping the Green Bay Packers lose out. That scenario is dead — but there’s one last gasp that would involve 1 in 1,000 odds.
The bizarre way the Vikings could still sneak into the playoffs centers on a chain of Lions and Bears losses, keeping Minnesota technically alive.
That’s right: Minnesota has not quite been eliminated. Here’s the strange path still alive.
The Twisted Path That Could Wiggle Vikings into the Playoffs
The longest of longshot parlays.
Vikings Win Out
For any playoff scenario to apply at all to the purple team, it must win the next four games. Full stop. A loss this Sunday night at the Dallas Cowboys would completely eliminate Kevin O’Connell and friends. The same stakes were in play last weekend against the Washington Commanders, but Minnesota fired up a 31-0 shutout.
So, yes, the Vikings must go undefeated amid this docket:
- Week 15: at Dallas Cowboys
- Week 16: at New York Giants
- Week 17: vs. Detroit Lions
- Week 18: vs. Green Bay Packers
Win out, and maintain a puncher’s chance until another team ruins the dream.
Bears Lose Out
Thereafter, and in addition, Chicago must lose all its games for Minnesota to strut into the tournament. Unlikely, but this whole article is unlikely and merely informational.
Here’s the Bears’ schedule, needing to lose every game:
- Week 15: vs. Cleveland Browns
- Week 16: vs. Green Bay Packers
- Week 17: at San Francisco 49ers
- Week 18: vs. Detroit Lions
Let’s assume this bombastic and humongous parlay is possible in the first place. It could be dead in its tracks by Sunday. The Bears are expected to beat the Browns by seven or eight points, and purple fans would need some Shedeur Sanders magic to keep the dream alive.
Meanwhile, Chicago also has home cooking in three of its final four games. Not ideal for Minnesota’s chances.
Lions Lose 3 Games; Beat Bears
Onto Detroit. The Lions actually have tricky games in the next two weeks:
- Week 15: at Los Angeles Rams
- Week 16: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Week 17: at Minnesota Vikings
- Week 18: at Chicago Bears
They must lose The Stafford Bowl, lose against the best team in football the following week, and see where the chips fall against Minnesota and Chicago.
DVOA estimates that Detroit has a 60% chance of reaching the postseason.
Panthers Lose 2 Games
It’s too bad that Minnesota needs so many damn rungs on the ladder for the parlay, because Carolina is not a daunting foe. It’s reasonable to expect the Panthers to lose two of their final four games.
- Week 15: at New Orleans Saints
- Week 16: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Week 17: vs. Seattle Seahawks
- Week 18: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina, in reality, could go 0-4 or 1-3 in the next four weeks. Most wouldn’t be stunned by it.
Cowboys Lose to Vikings; Lose One Extra Game
Finally, Minnesota needs Dallas to lose two games — or just one if one assumes the Vikings can win on Sunday night.
Here’s the menu for the Cowboys:
- Week 15: vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Week 16: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 17: at Washington Commanders
- Week 18: at New York Giants
If Dallas is anywhere remotely in the hunt, defeating the Commanders and Giants can be considered a reasonable ask. So, for the Vikings, it will be about taking care of their own business and asking Dallas to lose at home in Week 16 to the Chargers.
ESPN’s Todd Archer on Dallas’ playoff odds: “The organization’s analytics department was given another task: figure out the Cowboys’ playoff chances. ESPN Analytics puts the Cowboys’ postseason chances at 10% with Week 14 complete. While there is a way the Cowboys can make the playoffs even if they don’t win their final four games, they would need as much help as a toddler driving an 18-wheeler.”
“So let’s examine the premise that the Cowboys must win out against the Vikings, Los Angeles Chargers, Washington Commanders and New York Giants. That would put them at 10-6-1 on the season but needing help to make the playoffs in Schottenheimer’s first year. What else needs to happen to lock up a playoff spot?”
All in all, Minnesota has a less than 1% probability of making this all happen.
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