Why the Vikings Might Actually Knock Off the Commanders
The Minnesota Vikings haven’t lost five games consecutively in a single season since 2011. It’s been 14 years. They’ll hope to avoid that fate this Sunday against the Washington Commanders, and here’s why that may happen.
The Vikings might actually knock off the Commanders, with the club due for a competent showing, a turnover edge, and the homefield advantage.
Sportsbooks believe Minnesota will lose by 1.5 points, as Washington announced Friday that Jayden Daniels will be back for the first time in a month.
Why the Vikings Could Pull This Off against Washington
If the Vikings win, this is how it will go down.
1. Homefield Is Due to Matter
The Vikings have a wretched 1-4 record at U.S. Bank Stadium this season. It’s actually pretty easy to determine whether the team is any good in a given year: just look at the home win-loss record. When Minnesota is bad, it loses home games. When the franchise is going places, it wins at home.
So while Kevin O’Connell’s squad is emphatically not a good football team in 2025, it doesn’t typically perform this terribly at home. A 1-5 record through six contests would be infuriating.
Homefield advantage should matter, in theory, and it’s not like the Commanders are that unbeatable.
NFL.com’s Michael Florio predicted this week, “Justin Jefferson gets back to doing Justin Jefferson things. The Vikings’ star receiver goes off for his best performance of the season in a squeaky-wheel game.”
“With subpar QB play, Jefferson has had just two 100-yard receiving games and scored a touchdown in only two contests. For the first time this season, he records 100 receiving yards and scores a TD in the same game.”
That’ll help.
2. Turnover Differential Will Break in Vikings’ Favor before Too Long
Winning the turnover battle has been a reliable predictor of Minnesota’s success over the last decade. In 2016, the Vikings won it nine times, followed by eight in 2017, four in 2018, and 10 in 2019. They managed six in 2020, eight in 2021, seven in 2022, and only four in 2023. The number rebounded to eight in 2024 — and this year, through December, Minnesota has won the turnover battle just once. That was the game against Cincinnati, when it felt the Vikings could still be a playoff contender.
NFL science on turnovers is flat-out weird. Before too long, interceptions and fumbles will begin to slant in the direction of Brian Flores’ opportunistic defense.
3. The Commanders Aren’t Good
Washington is not an elite football team. That was last year. Not anymore.
The Commanders are going nowhere — just like the Vikings — and even at 4-8, Minnesota should be able to handle a 3-9 squad led by Dan Quinn.
Washington ranks 22nd per team DVOA in 2025. The Commanders can get got.
NFL.com’s Eric Edholm ranked Washington at No. 23 in his power rankings this week and explained the placement:
Two straight overtime losses won’t be salve for a lost season, but it could be an indication that this team will be competitive down the stretch and, with Jayden Daniels expected to return shortly, perhaps capable of winning a few games. No one chooses to play the role of spoiler, but that’s exactly what the Commanders can be, finishing the season with two games against the Eagles sandwiched around one versus the Cowboys. That also can serve another purpose heading into the offseason.
The Commanders need to know how close they are to competing. With reduced draft capital, they’ll be limited in what they can do to upgrade the roster, but if the Commanders show they can compete, it could help shape the offseason plan accordingly. Against Denver, the offensive line did a fairly excellent job, and the receivers made plays, giving the impression that this attack once again can be dangerous in a similar form next season.
4. J.J. McCarthy Approaching Historical Dropback Marker
Through 13 weeks, J.J. McCarthy ranks as the NFL’s worst passer based on EPA+CPOE. And the efficiency gets uglier in historical context: among quarterbacks across the last 20 years, only JaMarcus Russell posted a worse mark through his first six starts.
Throughout NFL history, most quarterbacks show their truest colors for a long-term development forecast around 250-300 dropbacks. McCarthy is at 207 dropbacks. He’s not far from really showing his semi-final characteristics and tendencies.
That said, there’s a reasonable chance that McCarthy turns the corner into a startable quarterback. So far, he is not.
The good part of McCarthy could leak out, alas, in Week 14. It could happen.
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