How the Vikings Can Shock the Cowboys in Week 15
If the Dallas Cowboys lose to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night, they’ll be right where the Vikings are at right now — on the absolute brink of playoff elimination. Minnesota, meanwhile, hopes to stack another victory after pounding the Washington Commanders in Week 14. Here’s how the purple team can do it.
To pull an upset in Dallas, Minnesota must flip the turnover script, ride a clean McCarthy performance, and drag the Cowboys into a slower, uglier style of game than they want.
The Vikings have lost five of their last six meetings against the Cowboys, but the luck has to change eventually, right?
What It Will Take for the Vikings to Shock Dallas
The Vikings are underdogs, but they can snatch a dub if they play their cards right.
1. Vikings Football Is Just a Turnover Referendum
Time to dust off the fancy stat after a weekly update:
Vikings Record,
Under Kevin O’Connell:
Win the TO Battle or Break Even: 34-4 (.895)
Lose the TO Battle: 5-21 (.192)
The Vikings go from a 15-2 team when they win the turnover differential to a 3-14 team when they do not. No NFL team in the last four seasons has a variance that extreme.
Therefore, it’s really quite simple for Minnesota: win the turnover battle or hold serve — and win.
J.J. McCarthy Must Play Somewhat Cleanly
The Cowboys’ offense probably won’t be wholly stopped by Brian Flores’ unit this weekend. The Cowboys are not the Commanders, who Minnesota stifled six days ago.
So, the Vikings will need the Week 14 version of McCarthy, the man who delivered 3 touchdowns to no turnovers and completed 70% of his passes. That was the vision when they drafted the dude in April 2024. McCarthy largely struggled in his first six starts, drawing heinous parallels to JaMarcus Russell and Christian Ponder.
The Vikings can shock the Cowboys as 5.5-point underdogs if McCarthy plays cleanly. Fans don’t expect 3-touchdown games every week, but McCarthy can’t get in a rut of throwing interceptions or refusing to complete passes.
Something between at-Detroit McCarthy from October and Week 14 McCarthy will do the trick.
SI.com‘s Will Ragatz noted this week on the matchup, “The Cowboys’ defense remains a mess, even if their midseason trade for Quinnen Williams has given them a game-wrecker in the middle of their front. But their electrifying offense drags teams into shootouts. The Cowboys have played five games this season where both teams scored at least 27 points, which is tied with the Bengals for the most in the NFL in 2025.”
“On a big stage, McCarthy has a lot to prove on Sunday night. Can he succeed when the cards aren’t stacked in his favor? Can he get the ball to Justin Jefferson? The Vikings aren’t going to be able to run the ball and dink and dunk their way to a win at Jerry World. That’s what makes this game a fascinating test of their young quarterback’s progress.“
Run More Than Pass
Minnesota ran the ball 34 times during its 31-0 shutout of the Commanders, while asking McCarthy to put it in the air on 23 occasions. That split must be replicated.
For some reason, with a quarterback playing poorly out of the gate, O’Connell has asked McCarthy to throw more often than his teammates run the ball, which is just mind-boggling for a first-year starter and one who hasn’t played well.
Regarding the 34-23 rush-to-pass playcall ratio, the Vikings need more of it. Over and over again. They basically have to use this routine until McCarthy proves he has the grit to fling it 35+ times in a game.
Give the dam ball to Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason. Repeatedly. Until the masses get sick of it.
Don’t Get in a Shootout
Write this down: the Vikings will not beat the Cowboys in a shootout. Just like the Minnesota Timberwolves could not beat the prime Golden State Warriors by outshooting them from the three-point line, Minnesota is not equipped to topple Dallas 44-41.
O’Connell’s team must grab an early lead and keep the score in the 20s. If it can hold Dallas to 23-24 points, there’s a path to victory.
Vikings.com’s Craig Peters wrote about a fast start this week: “A fast start and a spree of takeaways captured momentum one week ago. Replicating that formula is going to be paramount for Minnesota on the road against the No. 1 total offense in the NFL and a team that’s still pulling everything out of the bag to fight for its playoff lives.”
“The truth is the Vikings haven’t done very well this season holding onto momentum. Minnesota hasn’t won consecutive games since Weeks 16 and 17 last year. Its most recent set of games gaining 300-plus yards occurred in Weeks 4, 5 and 7 (Week 6 was the bye) when veteran QB Carson Wentz was filling in for McCarthy against Pittsburgh (24-21 loss), Cleveland (21-17 win) and Philadelphia (28-22 loss).”
The McCarthy-led Vikings are not yet an elite come-from-behind group.
“And its last time winning the turnover margin, like it did 3-0 against Washington, was back in Week 3 … versus Cincinnati and backup QB Jake Browning (5-0). Momentum has been hard to attain and harder to conserve,” Peters concluded.
The shootout path is doom. Avoid it.
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