Vikings Can Finally Put a Rival Out of Its Misery

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson at New York Giants in 2025
Dec 21, 2025; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) makes a catch against the New York Giants during the first half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

The Detroit Lions choked on Sunday by losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers at home, and the Minnesota Vikings can put Dan Campbell’s team out of its misery on Christmas Day.

Detroit’s slide has turned this into a holiday gut-check, and Minnesota has a clean path to make the Lions’ postseason math disappear.

That’s the state of play for Week 17, as the Lions are on the ropes, needing to get help from a collective foe, the Green Bay Packers, to reach the postseason. If you wanted something exciting to watch for on Thursday, it’s Minnesota’s chance to mathematically eliminate Detroit.

The Vikings Could End the Lions’ Season on Christmas

Kevin O’Connell can defeat Campbell twice in a row and end his season.

Steelers safety Kyle Dugger sacks Lions quarterback Jared Goff at Ford Field. Vikings can put Lions out of their misery.
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff is brought down by Pittsburgh Steelers safety Kyle Dugger during the second half, Dec 21, 2025, at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. The sack halted a developing drive and showcased interior pressure as Pittsburgh’s defense closed space quickly, forcing Goff to absorb contact in a tightly contested late-game sequence. Mandatory Credit: Junfu Han–USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Lions Lose Must-Win Game at Home

The Lions had it all lined up: beat the decent-but-not-great Pittsburgh Steelers at Ford Field and remain firmly in the postseason hunt, only really needing the Green Bay Packers to lose one game for a spot in the tournament.

But they bungled that assignment.

In a wild thriller, Pittsburgh defeated Detroit, with the 4th Quarter marred by penalties and controversy. Steelers WR DK Metcalf even punched a fan at one point.

Pride of Detroit‘s Jeremy Reisman wrote about the loss, “We waited months and months for the Detroit Lions to turn the corner of their mediocre season, but it appears that turn is not coming.

“The Lions saved their worst outing of the year for their most important one. In a gotta-have-it game, the Lions looked outmatched in every way. On offense, they were without a running game yet again, and Jared Goff looked disjointed from the passing game until it was too late.”

While the window hasn’t totally closed, Detroit may have squandered its best chances to win a Super Bowl in 2023 and 2024. Those teams were wonderful; this one is not.

Reisman continued, “On defense, Detroit gave up three explosive touchdowns, having no answer for the Pittsburgh Steelers’ rushing attack. Detroit nearly mounted a furious comeback, but they failed to punch the ball in late despite several opportunities in goal-to-go situations.”

“The Lions are not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but they are extreme long shots. They’ll need to win their two remaining games and need the Green Bay Packers to lose their final two games.”

Because Campbell’s squad lost at home, its playoff math cratered to 6%. The Packers must lose their next two games — against the Ravens and Vikings — while the Lions beat the Vikings and the Bears.

And if Minnesota somehow wins on Christmas Day, Detroit will be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. It’s the spoiler role for the Vikings.

Desperation Mode for Detroit at U.S. Bank Stadium

As is, the Lions have less than 10% chance of reaching the postseason. They’re probably toast. Coaches and players never believe that, though, so they will play like their lives depend on it at U.S. Bank Stadium — total desperation mode.

Detroit will also find a Vikings team without Christian Darrisaw, Jonathan Greenard, and Josh Metellus — and probably Ryan Kelly and Jordan Mason, who left the win over the Giants with injuries. It’s also unclear if J.J. McCarthy’s hand will heal in time. He was injured in New York, too.

Giants linebacker Abdul Carter sacks Vikings quarterback Max Brosmer
New York Giants linebacker Abdul Carter wraps up Minnesota Vikings quarterback Max Brosmer during the second half, Dec 21, 2025, at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The play underscored sustained defensive pressure as Carter broke through protection, disrupting Minnesota’s rhythm and forcing hurried decisions during a pivotal stretch of the contest. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta–Imagn Images

Against a staggering opponent, Detroit will hope for a dub that would shove their playoff odds to 12%

Losing Coordinators Mattered

At the beginning of the summer, NFL fans and analysts whispered that Detroit might be in trouble, as offensive coordinator Ben Johnson accepted a head coaching job with the Chicago Bears and Aaron Glenn took the same job in New York with the Jets.

Then, the regular season arrived, and the Lions played quite well for the first month or so.

But with the benefit of hindsight, it’s now apparent that Johnson and Glenn indeed had a lot to do with Detroit’s special sauce. The paranoid theories about a tumble were accurate.

A Spoiler in Week 18?

If the Lions beat the Vikings and the Ravens take down the Packers next week, well, Minnesota would transfer its spoiler role to the following week. The only way Green Bay can miss the postseason is by losing both of its remaining games, with Detroit beating Minnesota and Chicago.

Bears defensive end Austin Booker sacks Packers quarterback Jordan Love at Soldier Field
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love is hit and taken to the turf by Chicago Bears defensive end Austin Booker in the second quarter, Dec 20, 2025, at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. The collision stopped the play immediately and brought visible concern as Love remained down following the sack amid intense divisional action. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman–Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It’s not unrealistic to assume that Detroit will beat Minnesota. Meanwhile, Jordan Love may not play next weekend due to injury, meaning Baltimore won’t face the Packers at their purest. The Vikings could fill the spoiler role on Christmas, and if that doesn’t work, do the same thing in Week 18 at home against Green Bay.


avatar
Dustin Baker is a novelist and political scientist. His debut thriller, The Motor Route , is out now. He ... More about Dustin Baker