Vikings Could Decide the NFC Playoff Picture
The Minnesota Vikings will not participate in the 2025 postseason tournament; there is absolutely no way that can happen. The purple team can, though, play spoiler, a process that has already begun by taking down the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night.
Minnesota’s path is less about climbing the standings and more about dragging contenders into uncomfortable games, where one upset can swing seeding, tiebreakers, and the entire late-season narrative.
There’s more to come for Minnesota as a spoiler, starting on Christmas Day.
How the Vikings Can Disrupt NFC Seeding Down the Stretch
Step One is done, but what about Steps Two and Three?
Cowboys Playoff Hopes Effectively Ruined
Heading into Sunday Night Football, the Cowboys possessed an 11% chance of reaching the postseason, needing to win their four remaining games while asking the Philadelphia Eagles to lose three of four.
Now, because of the Vikings, Dallas’ path to the playoffs is razor-thin, with the easiest path as the Eagles losing their remaining three contests and the Cowboys winning out. And that’s just not going to happen as Philadelphia plays Washington — a terrible football team — twice in the final three games.
Now holding a 6-7-1 record, Minnesota ruined Dallas’ quasi-possible chance of playing the January tournament. Step One of the spoiler process is complete. America’s Team is kaput, and the Vikings delivered the final nail.
Lions in 9 Days
As it stands, Detroit has a 27% chance of making the postseason, a wild fall from grace for a team that was supposed to contend for the Super Bowl this year.
The Lions play at the Pittsburgh Steelers this weekend. Let’s assume they win for the sake of argument. Here’s the spoiler math for Vikings-Lions on Christmas:
Lions Playoff Chances (if Beat PIT),
After Week 17:
Beat the Vikings: 50%
Lose to the Vikings: 20%
Now, let’s pretend the Steelers take down the Lions this weekend:
Lions Playoff Chances (if Lose to PIT),
After Week 17:
Beat the Vikings: 20%
Lose to the Vikings: 0.5%
The spoiler role for the Vikings will apply to Christmas Day no matter what.
Packers to Close Out Season
Green Bay no longer has Micah Parsons in 2025; he tore his ACL. Wide receiver Christian Watson’s health is also up in the air. The Packers, meanwhile, have this schedule on the way:
- Week 16: at Chicago Bears
- Week 17: vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Week 18 at Minnesota Vikings
Suppose the Packers lose to the Bears and Ravens — not an absurd proposition. Facing the Vikings in Week 18, a Minnesota win would drop the Packers’ playoff hopes to 41%.
It’s worth noting, though, that the Vikings, if applicable, can probably only ruin one NFC foe’s season. Expecting both Detroit and Green Bay to miss the dance is close to impossible.
Giants … Just for Fun
What about the Giants, you ask? That is for vibes. Giants-Vikings is a contest all about vibes. Vibes only.
Two energetic quarterbacks, Jaxson Dart and J.J. McCarthy, do battle, with only quarterback maturation and draft pick order to monitor.
The spoiler setup does not start until Christmas, so as you watch Giants-Vikings this Sunday, that game is about McCarthy’s development — and that only. With maybe a side dish of no players tearing ACLs on a shoddy playing surface.
Power Rankings for DET, GB
NFL.com‘s Eric Edholm called the Lions the league’s 14th-best team after 15 weeks.
He wrote, “Another loss has put Detroit in a deeper hole, with the playoff hopes sliding even farther away. The Lions can get in, and winning the final three would give them a great chance of doing so. That would miraculously give Detroit 11 victories against a very tough schedule. But even as explosive as the Lions were at times against the Rams, Jahmyr Gibbs was bottled up, the pass protection became leaky and the defense allowed a season-worst 41 points.”
“I’m not going to throw dirt on Detroit’s grave because I haven’t even dug the hole yet, although I admit I have the shovels oiled up and ready to go. Losing Brian Branch this late in the season was a hearty blow to the defense, and I don’t know if the unit can make it through these final three games unscathed without him.”
And on the Packers at No. 9: “It was a season-changing loss in Denver, with Micah Parsons suffering a torn ACL and Christian Watson, Zach Tom, Quay Walker and Evan Williams all getting hurt, as well. The Packers were in control, up 23-14 in the third quarter, but Jordan Love underthrew a deep ball to Watson (the play in which the receiver got hurt), and everything turned in Denver’s direction.”
“Parsons is obviously the biggest blow; losing his pass-rush juice just takes a lot of the teeth out of this defense. It’s still a capable unit without him, but it’s fair to ask if Green Bay is capable of making a Super Bowl run now. The loss knocked the Packers out of the NFC North lead, handing it back to the Bears and shifting Green Bay into the final playoff slot for now. It’s tough to understate how damaging this game was, even with the Pack having a chance to sweep the Bears this Saturday.”
The Bears, meanwhile, have an 85% chance of reaching the postseason. They probably won’t be denied.
You must be logged in to post a comment.