The Vikings 2025 Playoff Odds Are Here
The Minnesota Vikings will hope to improve or maintain last year’s unexpected 14-3 season, making a notable swap at quarterback: J.J. McCarthy in and Sam Darnold out.
The Vikings 2025 playoff odds have arrived, with multiple sources weighing in on Minnesota’s chances to return to the postseason and contend for the chip.
And each week, VikingsTerritory tracks the team’s playoff math, a log to identify if the numbers support a postseason trip for the purple team.
This is the first installment of 2025.
How the Numbers See the Vikings’ 2025 Playoff Chances
It’s the Vikings’ 2025 playoff math.
Pro Football Network: 34%
Pro Football Network, based on what it calls “10,000 simulations,” believes the Vikings will finish in last place inside the NFC North, narrowly trailing the Bears for third place.
The site claims Minnesota has a 12.4% chance to win the NFC North, and considers the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens the best teams in the NFL by leaps and bounds.
FOX Sports analyst Will Hill picked the Packers to win the division and wrote about the NFC North this week, “The Vikings are really good, but it will be asking a lot to win the division with this treacherous schedule. The Bears are set at an Over/Under of 8.5 wins and are +550 to win the division.”
“There is seemingly reason for optimism in the Windy City heading into the season. Perhaps the right guy is finally in place, with rookie head coach Ben Johnson. The offensive line looks to be improved, and there is an influx of talent with the skill-position players, after the selections of rookies Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III.”
Green Bay hasn’t won the division since 2021, a significant drought by its standards.
Hill added, “Significant free agency money was spent on a defense that was 13th best in points per game allowed last year. Ultimately, this looks to be a very solid football team. But do we trust quarterback Caleb Williams to elevate his game enough to get the double-digit plus wins likely needed to win the North? I considered it, especially with the longest odds, but I still land on the Packers being the best bet.”
“The talent is there, the pressure of last year’s expectations is removed, and the schedule is conducive to a run to a division title.”
DVOA: 36.2%
One of the more trusted NFL metrics, FTN Fantasy, the site that houses DVOA, is somewhat low on the 2025 Vikings. For example, it offers 48.1% playoff odds for the Arizona Cardinals, while Minnesota resides at a measly 36.2%
DVOA believes Detroit will win the NFC North (69.1% playoff probability), Green Bay (54.2%) in second place, and Chicago in last place at 31.4%.
It’s worth noting that DVOA wasn’t very high on Minnesota last year until it began winning games left and right to start the season.
Pro Football Focus ranked the Vikings as the league’s 10th-best team this week, and Thomas Valentine noted, “No team spent more money than the Vikings in free agency as the front office attempted to bolster the trenches. The additions of Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave were an improvement to the defensive line, while Will Fries, Ryan Kelly and Donovan Jackson star as a brand-new interior offensive line.”
“Putting J.J. McCarthy in the best position possible to succeed has been the plan. The roster around McCarthy is one of the best in the NFL, and the Vikings clearly have a deep playoff run on their mind, but McCarthy is still an unknown in the league. One player to watch in 2025: McCarthy remains the answer here. The Vikings drafted him with the 10th overall pick a year ago, and with an excellent offense around him, he’ll be expected to hit the ground running in 2025.”
PlayoffStatus.com: 44%
This website is pretty basic, but its system will become clearer over the coming weeks.
Based on the size of the NFL, 32 teams, and not taking into account roster talent, coaching, etc., every club has a 44% chance of reaching the postseason dance. For example, the Philadelphia Eagles’ math ticked up to 51% after beating the Dallas Cowboys to start the season on Thursday night.
Sportsbooks: 50%
Oddsmakers are pretty damn straightforward about Minnesota in 2025: it’s a true coin flip. Fifty-fifty.
The odds started lower at the beginning of the offseason, but when the Vikings spent big in free agency — Jonathan Allen, Will Fries, Javon Hargrave, Ryan Kelly, and Isaiah Rodgers — the playoff math perked up a bit.
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