Trusted NFL Mind Pours Cold Water on Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings’ offseason is over, and the regular season kicks off in four days.
A trusted NFL brain has poured cold water on the Vikings, casting doubt on Minnesota’s ability to make noise in 2025 despite many offseason moves.
Fans are quite optimistic about the 2025 squad, mainly because the depth chart is so complete and deep.
But don’t bring that excitement around ESPN’s Bill Barnwell: he believes Minnesota will miss the postseason altogether.
Bill Barnwell Just Shut the Door on the Vikings
Can’t please them all, evidently, regarding the Vikings.
Bill Barnwell Says Nope to Vikings in Playoffs
Barnwell sized up last year’s playoff teams and decided which teams would be in and out of the tournament in 2025. Minnesota caught the short end of the stick.
He explained, “Vikings fans are sick of hearing about their record in one-score games, but when you go from 9-0 to 4-8 then to 8-1 across such games in Kevin O’Connell’s first three seasons in charge, it’s going to be a significant part of the conversation. We know that’s a meaningful predictor of what happens next, so it’s tough to imagine Minnesota playing at the same level and getting the same results.”
“Can the team keep up what we saw last season? A thrilling defense led the league in turnovers, as the Vikings jumped from 19th in turnover rate to second. That’s difficult to sustain, especially with Minnesota turning over a chunk of its secondary. This was the oldest team in football on a snap-weighted age basis, and after adding several new starters in free agency and making only three top-100 picks over the past two years, it’s tough to count on O’Connell’s team getting dramatically younger this season.”
Fans’ grievances or concerns about “close games” were largely a narrative last offseason. Minnesota won plenty of games by a healthy margin in 2025. Barnwell basically carried over the close-game argument to 2025 on his own.
He added, “One of the places where the team will get younger, of course, is at quarterback, with J.J. McCarthy taking over as the starter after missing all of his rookie year with a knee injury. The Vikings invested heavily along the line of scrimmage this offseason, and they probably won’t need to lean on their quarterback as much as they did on early downs with Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins.”
“But we just don’t know whether McCarthy will be an upgrade on the passers who preceded him. My instinct is that he’s something close, but instead, a defensive decline and a less fortunate year in one-score contests push Minnesota back toward the middle of the NFC pack.”
Oddmakers Right on the Edge
For the most part, sportsbooks tend to agree with Barnwell.
Minnesota began the offseason with an 8.5 win projection, but that has climbed to 9.5 after free agency, the draft, training camp, and the preseason. Vegas believes Minnesota will finish 9-8 or 10-7 this season, putting the purple team right on the edge of postseason contention.
Fans, of course, are more upbeat, forecasting an 11-6 showing.
What Could Go Wrong?
If Barnwell is right about Kevin O’Connell’s team missing the dance — that remains to be seen — a few factors could be in play:
- Quarterback J.J. McCarthy isn’t ready for the QB1 job on a Super Bowl-contending team.
- Injuries ruin everything
- The skinny cornerback room gets exposed by top-tier quarterbacks.
- The schedule (ranked fifth-toughest by most credible metrics) is just too brutal.
- The rushing offense isn’t repaired after the team claimed so all offseason.
What Could Go Right?
The Vikings can prove Barnwell wrong quite simply: the aforementioned McCarthy is ready for the bright lights of the NFL.
Minnesota’s roster is so tailor-made for a competent quarterback that McCarthy might even be able to put the thing on autopilot. There’s a school of thought suggesting that all McCarthy needs to do is avoid outlandish, continuous mistakes, and the Vikings can visit the postseason in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2008-2009.
If Sam Darnold could do it, the mission shouldn’t be impossible for McCarthy.
Barnwell on the Packers
Barnwell wrote more positively about the Packers, picking them to reach the postseason. He noted, “If they were missing a bit of star power, they got all they needed with the addition of Parsons, who is one of the best defensive players in football.”
“Assuming that Parsons doesn’t miss significant time with his back issue, the Packers added the same player who made the Cowboys the best defense in the NFL when he was on the field and its worst when he wasn’t. The Packers did so while subtracting just one player from the current roster in defensive tackle Kenny Clark.”
Minnesota and Green Bay will meet in 2025 for the first time right before Thanksgiving.
Barnwell continued, “The Packers aren’t perfect, of course. Their run defense is suddenly a question mark after the departures of Clark and T.J. Slaton Jr. Jordan Love has been inconsistent, and while there are reasons to talk yourself into the guy we saw in the second half of 2023 and 2024 as the real Love, it’s entirely possible we get another year with high highs and low lows from the 26-year-old signal-caller.”
“If we get the post-Toyotathon version of Love for 17 games, though, the Packers could be the best team in the league. With some reservations about the Lions and Vikings, I’m pushing the Packers into first place in the NFC North.”
Barnwell even picked Green Bay to win the NFC North, with the Detroit Lions grabbing a Wildcard berth.
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