ESPN Recommendation for Vikings Season Is Pretty Grim
The Minnesota Vikings’ regular season begins in 33 days, a road contest at the New York Giants, a squad that knocked Minnesota out of the postseason in January 2023.
ESPN Recommendation for Vikings Season Is Pretty Grim
And with kickoff not far away, ESPN offered some betting advice on the 2024 Vikings, with one rather grim recommendation: wager on the under of 6.5 wins.
“This is another one where I’ll default to the price on the under 6.5 (+120),” ESPN’s Tyler Fulghum wrote last week. “The first two months of Minnesota’s schedule are pretty brutal. If they can’t beat the Giants in Week 1, they’re looking at a potential 0-7 start. If that’s the case, Kevin O’Connell likely will have to change from Sam Darnold to rookie J.J. McCarthy at QB. Add some difficult NFC North competition, and the under is most appealing here.”
Some sportsbooks offer a win over-under of 7.5 for Minnesota, but Fulghum is evidently confident pounding the under, even at 6.5.
He also recommended a bet on Justin Jefferson to achieve over 1275.5 receiving yards and picked the Giants to defeat the Vikings in Week 1 as advice.
Nobody knows for sure if the change(s) at quarterback from Kirk Cousins to Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy will result in improvement. Minnesota finished 7-10 last year after Cousins missed half the season due to injury. The 2024 campaign could be a flyover season to reach 2025 when McCarthy, for example, can take the team on a run — if he’s any good. Rookie quarterbacks don’t reach or win Super Bowls, so many Vikings fans have already looked to 2025 and beyond.
To avoid Fulghum’s under-6.5-wins bet, Minnesota must repair its turnover problem from last season. The Vikings’ turnover differential was the second-worst in football last year at -12. Only the Washington Commanders checked in lower at -14. And most teams that scrape the bottom of the barrel per turnover differential don’t reach the postseason. Gifting turnovers to the opposition is like losing pints of blood. It never results in anything fruitful.
Rushing the football is also a concern. In 2022, Minnesota’s rushing attack ranked 27th per DVOA. After the 2022 season, the coaching staff recognized the sin and vowed improvement. Fast-forward to the end of 2023, and the Vikings ranked 27th per rushing DVOA — again.
O’Connell’s offense will never totally take off if the rushing attack stinks. Playoff-contending and Super Bowl teams don’t rank near the bottom of the NFL per rushing efficiency. They just don’t. Minnesota must run the ball at an average or better pace to improve on the 2023 season. Should Minnesota mess around and rank 27th or so again per rushing efficiency, the team won’t do much of anything.
If Fulghum is correct about under 6.5 wins, it will be the Vikings’ first season with less than seven wins since 2013.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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