These Are the Most Likely Outcomes of Vikings 2024 Season — Ranked
The Minnesota Vikings finished 7-10 in 2023, setting sights on improvement in 2024, even after parting ways with franchise staples Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter in March.
These Are the Most Likely Outcomes of Vikings 2024 Season — Ranked
And as youthful contingency plans, Minnesota selected quarterback J.J. McCarthy and outside linebacker Dallas Turner in the draft.
And in an attempt to predict how the Vikings’ 2024 season will pan out, these are the five likeliest outcomes, ranked in ascending order (No. 1 = most likely).
5. Totally Awful
2-15 to 5-12
Heading into 2024, the Vikings’ quarterback situation is totally up in the air for the first time in seven years. While it was time to move on from Kirk Cousins this offseason, Minnesota gave away consistency at the spot, so nobody knows if Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy will produce at an upper-echelon level this season.
In the worst-case scenario, both men stink, and the Vikings subsequently succumb to last place in the NFC North. The perk? A sweet draft pick next April because general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah didn’t have to trade much capital for McCarthy.
4. Just Plain Good
11-6 to 14-3
Although a longshot, what if the Vikings are just plain good? Their schedule is one of the most brutal in the NFL, but if Brian Flores’ defense enters the Top 5 or 10 during his second year on the job, well, the sky is the limit.
For Minnesota to notch a record of 11-6 or above, McCarthy would likely have to effectuate a “C.J. Stroud season” from 2023 — or Darnold must pull off a Baker Mayfield duplicate. Either is fairly far-fetched, but stranger things have happened than Minnesota flat-out playing well in 2024.
3. One-and-Done in the Postseason
9-8 to 10-7
This happened to the purple team in 2022. O’Connell and the gang won oodles of close games in his first year while turnover battle often bent in his favor. There’s a chance the 2022 season will be replicated but with diminished quarterback performance because Cousins took his talents to Atlanta.
Here, the Vikings would probably grab the 6th- or 7th playoff seed and lose in the Wildcard Round of the postseason.
2. Decent but Not Good Enough
8-9 or so
The formula is familiar — Minnesota has finished in the 7-to-8 win range in 66% of the last six seasons. Most call it mediocrity. Dreaded mediocrity.
The caveat here is McCarthy. If the Vikings finish around 8-9, but the young quarterback seems like the real deal, well, the 2024 season can emulate the 2014 campaign when Teddy Bridgewater was getting off the ground. That season was fun, and few complained about the 7-9 record. Watching a rookie quarterback develop was exciting, even if the 7-9 record was less than desirable.
1. Average
6-11 to 7-10 | No Playoffs
The only reason this falls into an “average” category — a 6-11 record is pretty bad — is the Vikings’ schedule. It’s one of the toughest in the NFL.
This outcome is the most likely. Depending on the order of the wins, it would also imply that Minnesota stays relevant for much of the season, a customary trait of Vikings football.
Oddsmakers believe Minnesota is good for about six or seven wins this season, and that feels about right, considering the quarterback uncertainty.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
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