Week 11 NFL Picks: Vikings Take Down the Broncos in Primetime
Josh Frey
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Chalk Week 10 up as another positive one for the picks. We snuck out of the weekend with an 8-5-1 record including some narrow victories with the Panthers, Steelers, and Broncos.
We need a few more of these weeks in order to complete the journey back to .500, so now, it’s all about stacking the wins. Before we get into the Week 11 NFL picks, here is a look back at how we did in Week 10:
- Panthers +3.5 (W)
- Colts -1.5 (W)
- Bengals -7 (L)
- Vikings +2.5 (W)
- Steelers -3.5 (W)
- Titans -1.5 (L)
- Jaguars +3 (L)
- Ravens -6 (L)
- Falcons -1.5 (L)
- Lions -3 (T)
- Cowboys -16 (W)
- Commanders +6.5 (W)
- Raiders +1.5 (W)
- Broncos +7.5 (W)
Season Record: 72-80-5
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
- Spread: Ravens -3.5
- O/U: 46.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Ravens -3.5
This is a game that could determine how the AFC North shakes out over the final eight weeks of the season. Both teams are coming off pretty bad losses in Week 10, but Baltimore especially should have been able to find a way to win last Sunday. They played a Cleveland defense very tough and jumped out to a big early lead before giving the game away. Against a lesser Bengals defense, this group should be able to dominate in the trenches and get back on track.
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
- Spread: Lions -9.5
- O/U: 46.5 points
Frey’s Picks: Lions -9.5, O46.5 points
The Bears get Justin Fields back this weekend, but is that going to be enough to take down a Lions team that just put up 41 points against the Chargers in Week 10? Speaking of 41 points, that was the final tally for the Lions back in Week 17 of the 2022 season against these Bears; the last time these two teams met. Detroit should be able to get whatever they want against one of the worst passing defenses in the league, so I’ll take the Lions to win big as well as the over on the 46.5 points.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
- Spread: Browns -2.5
- O/U: 36.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Steelers +2.5
Cleveland’s defense is a ferocious group, and Pittsburgh’s offensive line will have plenty of trouble blocking Myles Garrett. However, they fared well against Garrett in the first matchup between these two teams, allowing just a single QB hit throughout that game. Without Deshaun Watson playing, the Browns offense will struggle to move the ball against an equally tough Steelers defense. Pittsburgh covers in what promises to be a low-scoring affair.
Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay Packers
- Spread: Chargers -3
- O/U: 44.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Chargers -3
Let’s not overthink this. The Chargers defense is not good by any means, but what have we seen that suggests that Green Bay is able to move the ball effectively against anyone? At the very least, they likely cannot hold pace with one of the most high-flying offenses in the league, and Jordan Love is due for at least a turnover or two per game at this point. LA should be able to grab a win on the road after Green Bay just had to go against a very physical Steelers squad.
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins
- Spread: Dolphins -13.5
- O/U: 46.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Dolphins -13.5
Maxx Crosby is an unreal player off the edge, and he could cause a few Dolphins drives to end abruptly with his pass-rushing presence. Still, this Dolphins offense is absolutely ridiculous when they get to play at home. They are averaging 43.5 points per game at home, leading the league by far, and are yet to score fewer than 31 points in such games. Meanwhile, the Raiders have scored more than 20 points just twice all season. Miami should win big here.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders
- Spread: Commanders -8.5
- O/U: 37.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Commanders -8.5
This is a huge spread for a team like these 4-6 Washington Commanders, but how can you pick the Giants to keep this game close? New York has lost seven of their last eight games, and five of those losses have come by double-digits. They have the worst point differential in the NFL by far, and nothing has gone right for them this season. Washington will roll to their fifth victory of the season.
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers
- Spread: Cowboys -10.5
- O/U: 42.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Cowboys -10.5
This is just what the Cowboys do. They blow the doors off bad teams (unless it’s the Cardinals for… some reason). The Carolina Panthers are a very, very bad team, and Dallas should be able to win by double-digits again. Just don’t be fooled into thinking this is a Super Bowl team when it happens.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Spread: Jaguars -7
- O/U: 39.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Jaguars -7
Jacksonville’s loss to the 49ers certainly dampened some hopes of this being one of the best teams in the NFL, but Tennessee is finishing up a brutal stretch where they will be playing their three consecutive road game. The Jaguars defense has been great against the run this year, which could pose a problem for Derrick Henry and the Titans. Jacksonville bounces back and gets a big win.
Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans
- Spread: Texans -5
- O/U: 48.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Cardinals +5
This feels like a trap game for the Texans. They’re coming off a pair of emotional wins against the Buccaneers and Bengals over the past two weeks, and they have another huge game against the Jaguars coming up in Week 12. Kyler Murray and James Conner both returned to the field for Arizona last week, and their offense looked much better as a result. Arizona might not win this game, but I think they can keep it close. And I just need to pick another underdog at some point here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers
- Spread: 49ers -11.5
- O/U: 41.5 points
Frey’s Pick: 49ers -11.5
The 49ers looked like a completely different offense on Sunday now that they have healthy versions of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Trent Williams. It is very dangerous to ride with all of these double-digit favorites, but seeing as San Francisco is at home and can’t afford to step off the gas, I think they get another big win.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
- Spread: Bills -7
- O/U: 39.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Jets +7
It’s time to accept that the Bills aren’t a great team. Josh Allen continues to make silly turnovers, and the defense has not been very good over the past six weeks. The Jets have won two of the last three meetings between these two franchises as well, so they have Buffalo’s number. With the strength of their defense, they can keep this one close.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
- Spread: Seahawks -1
- O/U: 46.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Rams +1
It’s time for some more chaos in the NFC West. The Rams are coming off a bye, and they will have Matthew Stafford back for this game. Considering they dominated the Seahawks during Week 1 without Cooper Kupp, I think the Rams will pull off another win here at home.
Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos
- Spread: Broncos -2.5
- O/U: 42.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Vikings +2.5
My spidey senses are tingling for this matchup. The Broncos defense has been spectacular during their three-game winning streak, and Russell Wilson is actually making some winning plays right now. This has me wary about picking the Vikings here despite their own lengthy winning streak, but hey, my senses have been wrong more often than they’ve been right. We’re going full homer mode with this one, and hopefully, the Dobbs magic continues for the Vikings.
Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs
- Spread: Chiefs -2.5
- O/U: 45.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Chiefs -2.5
The rematch of last season’s Super Bowl is here. Both teams will be well-rested following their bye weeks, but I just don’t trust this Eagles defense (as crazy as that sounds). Philly is allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game right now and the most passing TDs per game. That should be music to Patrick Mahomes’ ears, and Kansas City will get another win.
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Josh Frey is a Class of 2020 graduate of The College of Idaho and managing editor of PurplePTSD.com. When he’s not writing about the NFL, Josh enjoys running, gaming, or rooting for the Milwaukee Brewers and Bucks. Check out his Twitter account: @Freyed_Chicken.
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