Week 10 NFL Picks: Vikings Reignite Rivalry with Saints
Half of the NFL season is officially behind us, and we’ve dug ourselves a decent hole with the picks over the first nine weeks.
We were burned last week by Matthew Stafford being ruled out after the picks were released, and the Texans could have pushed if they actually had a healthy kicker, but nonetheless, we move forward.
Before we get into the Week 10 NFL picks, here is a look back at how we did in Week 9:
- Titans +2.5 (L)
- Chiefs -2 (W)
- Saints -8.5 (L)
- Vikings +4.5 (W)
- Cardinals +8 (L)
- Rams +3 (L)
- Patriots -3.5 (L)
- Ravens -6 (W)
- Texans -3 (L)
- Panthers +2.5 (L)
- Giants +2 (L)
- Eagles -3 (W)
- Bengals -2 (W)
- Chargers -3.5 (W)
Season Record: 64-75-4
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears
- Spread: Bears -3.5
- O/U: 38.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Panthers +3.5
Justin Fields is out once again this week, meaning we have at least one more game of Tyson Bagent in Chicago. Bagent turned the ball over five times against the Saints last weekend and is largely the reason that the Bears lost that game. Despite the struggles in Carolina, I’ll pick them to keep this one close.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (Frankfurt)
- Spread: Colts -1.5
- O/U: 43.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Colts -1.5
Outside of a couple explosive plays from Rhamondre Stevenson, the Patriots offense has looked pretty horrible over the past few weeks. They’ve lost Kendrick Bourne to IR, and Demario Douglas might not be around for this game, either. Neither one of these defenses is very good, so it will come down to which offense can make plays down the stretch. I trust the Colts to do that much more than the Patriots.
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals
- Spread: Bengals -7
- O/U: 47.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Bengals -7
C.J. Stroud is coming off one of the most impressive rookie QB performances in NFL history, but this Bengals squad looks like they are poised to make a deep playoff run once again. They’ve won four straight games after their 1-3 start to the season, and Joe Burrow has thrown 10 TDs compared to just 2 INTs during this stretch. Considering the Bengals are at home for this one, I’ll take them to win big. The injuries to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are worth monitoring, though.
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings
- Spread: Saints -2.5
- O/U: 40.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Vikings +2.5
The Josh Dobbs show got underway in Minnesota last weekend, and he now actually has time to prepare and learn the names of his teammates heading into a Week 10 matchup against the Saints. Of course, New Orleans has a very strong defense that leads the league in takeaways which has always been a bit of a problem for Dobbs. Still, though, I trust Kevin O’Connell’s gameplan as a head coach more than Dennis Allen’s. The Vikings will get the job done at home.
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Spread: Steelers -3.5
- O/U: 39.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Steelers -3.5
Green Bay got back on track last week, but it was against a Brett Rypien-led Rams team that simply cannot move the ball. Pittsburgh has consistency problems on offense, but they at least have a few playmakers who have proven to be impactful in games. Their defense is terrific as well, and rookie CB Joey Porter Jr. is beginning to come into form. The Steelers will win this game.
Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Spread: Titans -1.5
- O/U: 38.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Titans -1.5
The Titans are coming off a mini-bye week while the Buccaneers played a very tough game against a rising Texans squad last weekend. Will Levis may have thrown an interception to end the game last week, but Tennessee’s offense looks much smoother with him under center. Titans roll here against a floundering Tampa Bay squad.
San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Spread: 49ers -3
- O/U: 45.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Jaguars +3
This is going to be a very good game. The 49ers had a chance to get a bit healthier during their bye last week, and the Jaguars are turning into a potential Super Bowl contender. It will be a close game, but I don’t think the 49ers are all the way back yet. Jacksonville can steal this game at home.
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
- Spread: Ravens -6
- O/U: 38.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Ravens -6
If I had to pick one team that is at the top of the NFL right now, it would be the Baltimore Ravens. Their offense is hitting a groove, and the defense has been impenetrable at times this year. Cleveland was blown out by the Ravens in Week 3 at home, and I think Lamar Jackson and Co. get the job done again.
Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals
- Spread: Falcons -1.5
- O/U: 43.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Falcons -1.5
The Cardinals are starting to get healthy again as Kyler Murray was activated while James Conner’s 21-day practice window was also opened. However, Conner likely won’t be back this weekend, and Atlanta has enough weapons on offense to run up and down the field on Arizona’s defense. These 1.5-point lines are tricky, but it’s hard to believe that the Falcons lose this game.
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Chargers
- Spread: Lions -3
- O/U: 48.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Lions -3
The Lions are coming off their bye, and David Montgomery is expected to come back this week. Detroit has had some inconsistencies in that area without him, so this should fully get Detroit back on track. The Chargers have been a tough group against the run this season, but they haven’t faced a duo like Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs yet this season.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
- Spread: Cowboys -16
- O/U: 38.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Cowboys -16
Dallas won this game in Week 1 by 40 points, and that was with Daniel Jones playing quarterback. Now, the Giants are riding into Week 10 with Tommy DeVito, and this game is in Dallas. After they came up just short against the Eagles, the Cowboys will be ready to come out and blow the brakes off this Giants team.
Washington Commanders at Seattle Seahawks
- Spread: Seahawks -6.5
- O/U: 45.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Commanders +6.5
The Seahawks haven’t been nearly as effective on offense as they were last year while the defense has had all sorts of lapses of the past couple weeks. The Commanders aren’t a great team by any means, but Sam Howell can make enough plays to keep them within striking distance.
New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders
- Spread: Jets -1.5
- O/U: 36.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Raiders +1.5
The Raiders rallied around their new coach as soon as everyone wrote them off for dead, and they blew out New York. The Jets offensive line has been a weakness all season, and they won’t have an answer for Maxx Crosby this weekend. The Raiders win this game and get to 5-5.
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
- Spread: Bills -7.5
- O/U: 46.5 points
Frey’s Pick: Broncos +7.5
Denver showed a few signs of life before they went into their bye week while Buffalo looks very out of sync on both sides of the ball. They are dealing with plenty of injuries right now as well which has limited their effectiveness even further. The Broncos defense has allowed fewer than 20 points in each of their last three games, and as long as they can be somewhat effective on offense, this game will be close.
Josh Frey is a Class of 2020 graduate of The College of Idaho and managing editor of PurplePTSD.com. When he’s not writing about the NFL, Josh enjoys running, gaming, or rooting for the Milwaukee Brewers and Bucks. Check out his Twitter account: @Freyed_Chicken.
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