Week 12 NFL Picks: The Thanksgiving/Black Friday Games

the 49ers Avoid
Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Well, the good news is we didn’t take any steps backwards last weekend. The bad news is we didn’t take any steps forward, either. Week 11 finished with a 7-7-1 record with a couple close wins and a couple brutal beats.

All we can do is try to get back on track during Thanksgiving weekend. This week, we will be breaking up the picks into two separate articles. First, we’ll go over the Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday games, and later into the week, keep an eye out for the Sunday/Monday picks, including the Vikings game on Monday night. Before we get into the Week 12 NFL picks, here is a look back at how things turned out in Week 11:

  • Ravens -3.5 (W)
  • Lions -9.5 (L)
  • Bears/Lions O46.5 points (W)
  • Steelers +2.5 (L)
  • Chargers -3 (L)
  • Dolphins -13.5 (L)
  • Commanders -8.5 (L)
  • Cowboys -10.5 (W)
  • Jaguars -7 (W)
  • Cardinals +5 (T)
  • 49ers -11.5 (W)
  • Jets +7 (L)
  • Rams +1 (W)
  • Vikings +2.5 (W)
  • Chiefs -2.5 (L)

Season Record: 79-87-6

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

Week 12 NFL Picks Thanksgiving
Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) passes the ball against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, January 8, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK
  • Spread: Lions -7.5
  • O/U: 46.5 points

Frey’s Pick: Packers +7.5

Something about the Lions feels a touch off right now. Their defense got off to a hot start this season, but over the past three weeks, they’ve allowed 26 points per game, seventh-worst in the NFL. Jared Goff did everything he could to let the Bears win that game, but luckily for Detroit, Chicago’s offense completely folded down the stretch. With Jordan Love starting to figure things out, I think the Packers can at least keep this game close.

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott Frames Game against Vikings with Mighty Stakes
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports.
  • Spread: Cowboys -11
  • O/U: 48.5 points

Frey’s Pick: Cowboys -11

If you’ve followed this series at all, you know how I roll with the Cowboys. No matter the spread, pick them versus the bad teams and against them versus the good teams. That has worked without fail (outside of their loss to Arizona) this season, and the Commanders look like one of the worst teams in football right now.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
  • Spread: 49ers -7
  • O/U: 43.5 points

Frey’s Pick: 49ers -7

The 49ers are all the way back. Everyone on the offense is healthy again, and this group has been clipping at an unreal pace over the past two weeks. They’ve won their past two games by a combined score of 61-17, utterly dominating everyone in their path. The Seahawks have played some rather ugly football over the past three weeks, so I think San Francisco rolls here.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
  • Spread: Dolphins -10
  • O/U: 41.5 points

Frey’s Pick: Jets +10

This might be a really bad pick. There’s just something the Dolphins that I don’t necessarily trust this week. They struggled against a tough Raiders defense last weekend, and they have to go against another talented group this week on the road. Tim Boyle could be the latest backup QB to find a week of success too, so against my better judgment, I’ll take the Jets to cover.

Josh Frey is a Class of 2020 graduate of The College of Idaho and managing editor of PurplePTSD.com. When he’s not writing about the NFL, Josh enjoys running, gaming, or rooting for the Milwaukee Brewers and Bucks. Check out his Twitter account: @Freyed_Chicken.

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