The Vikings Playoff Probability Meter: Week 1

Hockenson Contract
Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports.

Each week, VikingsTerritory tracks the Minnesota Vikings odds of reaching the postseason, starting with pre-Week 1 all the way to Week 18.

The Vikings Playoff Probability Meter: Week 1

Various probability sources are tracked and centralized in one spot for reference.

Probability Meter
Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports.

This is the Vikings probability meter before Week 1 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

DVOA = 17.9%

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. | Jan 15, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) looks on during warmups before a wild card game against the New York Giants at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports.

The most unkind of them all, FTNFantasy.com actually predicts Detroit to run away with the NFC North, which would be a first-of-its-kind feat in 30 years. As of late, DVOA stats (now housed at FTN Fantasy) have loathed the Vikings, and 2023 is just a continuation of 2022.

Last year, Minnesota had a 13-4 record but ranked 27th leaguewide per DVOA.

Image Courtesy of FTNFantasy.com

FTNF‘s fascination with the Packers, as listed above, is actually rather unique.

Sportsbooks = 46.5%

David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports.

Most credible sportsbooks settle around a +115 moneyline for Minnesota to visit the postseason, which translates to 46.5%. That percentage and moneyline have stayed stagnant for most of the offseason, as oddsmakers decided Minnesota was an 8.5-win team after it lost Eric Kendricks, Adam Thielen, Za’Darius Smith, Dalvin Cook, Dalvin Tomlinson, Patrick Peterson, and others — and that was that.

Per betting odds, the Vikings are essentially coinflip to reach the postseason. After the Lions toppled the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday Night Football, Detroit’s odds soared from +165 to +250. Like the narrative all offseason, the Lions are the team to beat in the NFC North — not the Vikings.

PlayoffStatus.com = 43%

All 17 of the Vikings
Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports.

This site takes a more rudimentary approach to the calculation, not necessarily factoring in predictive performance. But in the interest of fairness and sheer math, PlayoffStatus.com was included for a broader view.


The Vikings play the Buccaneers on Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium. Minnesota, like most teams, historically has a much better chance of reaching the playoffs when it wins the first game of the season.

Note: FiveThirtyEight.com typically reveals playoff odds and other NFL metrics by now, but nothing is available as of September 8th. Perhaps it will publish something after Week 1.


Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sal Spice. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band).

All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.

Share: