The Vikings Playoff Probability Meter: Week 11

Did the Vikings Just Play the Craziest 2-Week Swing in History?
Nov 13, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports.

Each week, VikingsTerritory tracks the Minnesota Vikings odds of reaching the postseason, starting with pre-Week 1 all the way to Week 18.

Various probability sources are tracked and centralized in one spot for reference.

This is the Vikings probability meter before Week 11, with a home contest at the Dallas Cowboys up next. In Week 10, Kevin O’Connell’s team won its eighth game of 2022, beating the mighty Buffalo Bills, 33-30, in a thriller.

FiveThirty Eight = 99%

Change from Last Week = +0.0%

Image Courtesy of FiveThirtyEight

FiveThirtyEight decided after Week 10 that Minnesota was the 5th-best team in football with the 2nd most-likely odds to reach the playoffs. These rankings did not change from Week 9 to Week 10.

The Vikings have reached shoo-in status to win the NFC North, which would be their first such achievement since 2017. The Green Bay Packers have seized the division in every season since 2019. However, Minnesota has a 4.5-game lead on Green Bay, plus the temporary tiebreaker from defeating the Packers in Week 1. The Packers snapped a five-game losing streak on Sunday, though, downing the Cowboys at home.

Football Outsiders = 98.6%

Change from Last Week = +1.0%

Image Courtesy of Football Outsiders

The Vikings unexpected win in Buffalo nudged their playoff chances by a smidgen. It also enhanced Minnesota’s odds of winning the NFC North. Minnesota’s magic number is four. According to Football Outsiders, the Packers playoffs hopes are still teensy, needing to finish 6-1 or 5-2 and help with a collapse of the San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, or New York Giants to enter the January dance.

A foundational, historic collapse would be needed for the Vikings not to win the division.

Sportsbooks = 99.0%

Change from Last Week = No change

Minnesota’s odds per sportsbooks of reaching the postseason stayed the same after Week 10, as the Vikings stand atop the NFC North while Green Bay treaded water defeating Dallas. To win the division, the Packers must finish 6-1 — with a 1-7 win-loss remainder by Minnesota.

The Vikings playoff moneyline right now is -10000.

PlayoffStatus.com = 99%

Change from Last Week = No change

This site leans heavier on wins’ and losses’ impact on the postseason. It doesn’t factor in predictive, intuitive measures like FiveThirtyEight. It considers the Vikings sure-fire playoff participants. According to the site, the Vikings are the second most-likely franchise to reach the postseason. When the season began, the site listed the Vikings at 43%.

The Vikings take on the Cowboys in Week 11 at U.S. Bank Stadium. Minnesota is an early two-point underdog.


Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).