Kirk Cousins Is Probably Sitting on a Big Game

Kirk Cousins Is Probably Sitting on a Big Game
Kirk Cousins

The Minnesota Vikings have a 5-1 record through seven weeks despite no monster games from quarterback Kirk Cousins.

Cousins has “navigated the ship” efficiently to the NFC’s current No. 2 seed, though, so Vikings fans don’t particularly mind that the 34-year-old hasn’t delivered a signature performance. He’s generated three game-winning drives in 2022, and that was a trait folks begged of him in recent years.

Still, Cousins is probably sitting on a big game — based on his historical resume. And there might even be about four or five upcoming.

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Dec 25, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports.

Why is this somewhat certain? Well, Cousins is accountable for around five games with 3+ passing touchdowns per season since becoming a full-time starter in 2015. Here are the numbers:

Kirk Cousins,
Games w/3+ Passing TDs,
Since 2015:

2015 = 5
2016 = 3
2017 = 4
2018 = 4
2019 = 4
2020 = 8
2021 = 5
2022 = 0

That’s 4.7 per year, and Cousins — with a new, offense-first head coach in Kevin O’Connell — has zero such games to date in 2022. Something’s gotta give. Either Cousins is done tossing games with 3+ paydirts, which would be very odd — or they’re upcoming in a flurry soon.

Kirk Cousins, Big Kirko, Chain
Kirk Cousins

In fact, since taking the reins as the Washington Commanders starting quarterback in 2015, Cousins’ 33 games with 3+ passing touchdowns is the fourth-most in the NFL.

Games with 3+ Passing TDs,
Since 2015:

Tom Brady (42)
Aaron Rodgers (38)
Russell Wilson (35)
Kirk Cousins (33)
Matthew Stafford (32)
Drew Brees (32)
Patrick Mahomes (28)

Moreover, Cousins is also a sponsor of flawless games more so than most, tying for second in the business in games with 3+ passing touchdowns to zero interceptions:

Games with 3+ Passing TDs,
and Zero Interceptions
Since 2015:

Aaron Rodgers (32)
Kirk Cousins (25)
Tom Brady (25)
Russell Wilson (25)
Drew Brees (21)
Patrick Mahomes (18)

The “problem” is simple — Cousins hasn’t produced any 3+ touchdown performances so far in 2022, and he’s generally done just that by now to start a season.

In the month of November, since earning the starting job in 2015, Cousins’ production skyrockets. Couple that knowledge with his relative statistical drought this season, and the Vikings signal-caller is likely nearing a series of profitable games.

Kirk Cousins’ Passer Rating,
by Month,
Since 2015:
(min. 400 Passing Att)

September = 94.2 (14th in NFL)
October = 100.3 (9th in NFL)
November = 109.8 (2nd in NFL)
December = 94.2 (13th in NFL)

This is why you’ve read about Kirkvember on the internet, as November is Cousins’ best month. It’s also why the Vikings quarterback is overdue for mammoth individual performances.

They’re coming.



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Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).