Week 11 NFL Picks: Vikings Win as Home Underdogs

Are Vikings OL Improvements a Mirage?
Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Week 10 was one of the more entertaining slates of football that we’ve seen all season. However, once again, the picks fell flat. We went 3-4 over the weekend, painfully missing out on multiple picks by narrow margins. Regardless, we plow forward, and here are the Week 11 NFL picks, including the predictions for Cowboys vs. Vikings. Here’s a reminder of last week before we get started:

  • Seahawks +3 (L)
  • Vikings +3.5 (W)
  • Vikings/Bills O44 points (W)
  • Cowboys -5 (L)
  • 49ers -7 (L)
  • Commanders +11 (W)
  • Commanders/Eagles U44 points (L)

Season Record: 31-36-3

Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers

  • Spread: Packers -3
  • Titans ML: +155
  • Packers ML: -175
  • O/U: 41 points

Frey’s Pick: Titans +3

It’s essentially a crapshoot as to which version of the Packers offense that we’re going to see on a week-to-week basis. Two weeks ago, they scored nine points against the Detroit Lions, and now they dropped 31 points, including 17 in the fourth quarter and overtime, against the Dallas Cowboys.

However, if they are going to continue this trend of alternating bad and good games, it’s time for another stinker from the Packers. Reinforcing this idea is the fact that the Tennessee Titans haven’t allowed more than 20 points to a team since Week 3. Derrick Henry will be able to run on the Packers defense, and Tennessee’s defense will frustrate Rodgers on Thursday night.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts

  • Spread: Eagles -6.5
  • Eagles ML: -300
  • Colts ML: +250
  • O/U: 44 points

Frey’s Picks: Eagles -6.5, O44 points

Of course, the Indianapolis Colts had a fun victory to start of Jeff Saturday’s interim head coaching tenure. Jonathan Taylor had a huge game as well, breaking 100 yards for the first time since Week 1. If he continues to run well, then perhaps the Colts can keep this game close.

However, the Eagles should come into this game extremely motivated after they lost on Monday night to the Washington Commanders. They got bullied in the trenches for most of the night, and that should be the wakeup call that the team needed going into the rest of this season. The Eagles will win this game fairly easily, and they’ll put up some points along the way.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

  • Spread: Patriots -3
  • Jets ML: +150
  • Patriots ML: -170
  • O/U: 38 points

Frey’s Pick: Patriots -3

We’ve seen this countless times before. Bill Belichick coming off a bye week is one of the most prepared head coaches in NFL history. The Patriots are 15-7 coming off a bye in Belichick’s head coaching tenure, and they’ve covered the spread 14 times.

Additionally, he’s dominated the Jets since becoming the Patriots head coach. Belichick is 35-10 against the Jets since he joined New England in 2000.

New York with Zach Wilson at QB will have a ton of trouble scoring points against this Patriots defense. Vegas clearly believes this will be the case as well with the over/under being set at 38 points. This is going to be a very typical game where the Patriots blow out the Jets.

One more stat before we move on: the Patriots have won the last 13 games between these two teams. All the wins have been by at least 3 points.

Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings

  • Spread: Cowboys -1
  • Cowboys ML: -125
  • Vikings ML: +105
  • O/U: 47.5 points

Frey’s Picks: Vikings +1, O47.5 points

If Christian Darrisaw is forced to miss this game with his concussion, the Vikings could have some major trouble stopping Micah Parsons. Additionally, it’s going to be worth watching Justin Jefferson’s status heading into this game as well after his toe injury limited him in Wednesday’s practice.

However, this is a game where the Vikings should run the ball as much as often. Dallas has been horrendous at stopping the run throughout this season, allowing 4.8 yards per carry.

In their last two games, each against NFC North teams, the Cowboys have allowed over 200 yards on the ground. If Minnesota can complement their passing attack with a consistent run game, they should still win this game.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers

  • Spread: Chiefs -6
  • Chiefs ML: -250
  • Chargers ML: +210
  • O/U: 50 points

Frey’s Pick: Chiefs -6

Picking against the Chargers in Week 10 somehow didn’t go my way last week, but it really should have. I’m still not convinced that Kyle Shanahan didn’t pick against the 49ers with some of his decisions down the stretch of that game.

Similar to the dynamic between the New England Patriots and the New York Jets, the Kansas City Chiefs have dominated this matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers in recent years. Since 2014, Andy Reid’s Chiefs have won 14 of the 17 meetings. Eight of these wins have been by double digits as well.

Specifically in 2022, this matchup continues to favor the Chiefs. Kansas City won in Week 2 on Thursday Night Football against Los Angeles by a score of 27-24. Heading into this Week 11 matchup, the Chiefs are a much better team than they were in Week 2 as well.

Juju Smith-Schuster has emerged into a great option at wide receiver with Travis Kelce, and the newly acquired Kadarius Toney has begun to revive his career with Patrick Mahomes throwing him the ball as well.

As for the Chargers, it’s hard to trust them in any game. Their game management down the stretch of games has been poor, and with this game being played on Sunday Night Football, the whole nation will be watching. The Chiefs will win this game by two possessions.

Josh Frey is a Class of 2020 graduate of The College of Idaho with a bachelor’s degree in Creative Writing. He also earned minors in History, Human Biology, and Journalism. When he’s not writing about the NFL, Josh enjoys marathon training, playing video games, or rooting for the Milwaukee Brewers and Bucks. For more of his opinions, check out his Twitter account: @Freyed_Chicken