The Vikings “X-Factor” from a National Viewpoint
The 2022 Minnesota Vikings could host a variety of “x-factor” type players, ranging from Irv Smith Jr. (TE), Za’Darius Smith (EDGE), Lewis Cine (S), to Kene Nwangwu (RB), among others.
But from a national viewpoint, Bleacher Report tabs Danielle Hunter, the Vikings primary pass rusher, for the x-factor title. Gary Davenport from Bleacher Report nominated such a player from every NFL team heading into the 2022 season, and the Vikings eighth-year defender was “the guy.”
And here’s the deal — Davenport is absolutely correct. When Hunter is on the field for the Vikings, the team’s defense is wonderful. However, Hunter has missed 26 games since the start of 2020, and correspondingly, Mike Zimmer’s defense died.
Hunter was mostly healthy from 2015 to 2019. Then, during the 2020 offseason, oodles of veteran Vikings defenders left the franchise via free agency. And in a terrible twist of fate, Hunter missed the 2020 season with a neck injury as the others bolted to new teams. Per EPA/Play, this is the discrepancy between Minnesota’s defensive performance with and without Hunter:
Defensive EPA/Play,
Vikings NFL Ranking,
2015-2020:
2015-2019: 1st in NFL
2020: 25th in NFL
Davenport said of Hunter as the Vikings x-factor, “The Vikings brought in veteran edge-rusher Za’Darius Smith to complement Hunter up front. They’ll need Hunter to get his groove back to improve the league’s third-worst defense from last season.”
Davenport is also accurate about the addition of Smith. Unlike the 2020 and 2021 seasons, when Hunter missed a litany of games, Minnesota now has the bet hedged. During the last two campaigns, Zimmer utilized an assortment of mid-tier defenders — plus Everson Griffen a little bit — to compensate for no Hunter. Now, if something happens to Hunter, Smith will become “the guy” like Hunter since 2017 or so.
Too, new defensive coordinator Ed Donatell could cook up a contingency plan sans Hunter, unlike Minnesota could concoct in 2020 and 2021. Conversely, though, if Zimmer — a long-theorized defensive mastermind — could not, will Donatell be able to? Probably not. Yet, Zimmer never had Za’Darius Smith, so that should be considered the difference.
Minnesota’s defense is formidable when Hunter is around. When he’s off the field with a neck injury or torn pectoral muscle, the unit crumbles in crucial situations, and flat-out isn’t very good.
While the Vikings will employ several x-factor players — every team does — Hunter’s availability, especially paired with a frightful pass rusher in Smith, will likely determine if Donatell’s defense is more productive than Zimmer’s.
Finally, this stat should be considered a good omen for Vikings fans. When Hunter and Smith play, they sack quarterbacks at a tremendous clip.
Most Sacks per Game,
Since 2018:
(min. 20 Sacks)
- T.J. Watt (1.04)
- Aaron Donald (.907)
- Myles Garrett (.903)
- Danielle Hunter (.897)
- Chandler Jones (.836)
- Cameron Jordan (.742)
- Chris Jones (.706)
- Za’Darius Smith (.704)
- Nick Bosa (.700)
- Von Miller (.695)
If Hunter is healthy when Week 1 rolls around, it will be his first game with the Vikings without Everson Griffen somewhere tied to the roster — assuming general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah does not re-sign the 34-year-old Griffen,
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).
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