The Vikings Playoff Probability Meter: Week 13

to Spell Absolute Doom
Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports.

Each week, VikingsTerritory tracks the Minnesota Vikings odds of reaching the postseason, starting with pre-Week 1 all the way to Week 18.

Various probability sources are tracked and centralized in one spot for reference.

This is the Vikings probability meter before Week 13, with a home contest versus the New York Jets up next. In Week 12, Kevin O’Connell’s team won its ninth game of 2022, outlasting the New England Patriots in a Thanksgiving night thriller.

FiveThirty Eight = 99%

Change from Last Week = no change

Image Courtesy of FiveThirtyEight

FiveThirtyEight decided after Week 12 that Minnesota was the 10th-best team in football with the third most-likely odds to reach the playoffs. Both of these probability metrics remained steady from Week 11 to Week 12.

The Vikings have reached shoo-in status to win the NFC North, which would be their first such achievement since 2017. Minnesota has a five-game lead on the Detroit Lions and a 5.5-game lead on the Green Bay Packers, so the division has hit the point of no return.

Football Outsiders = 98.8%

Change from Last Week = +2.3%

Image Courtesy of Football Outsiders

The Vikings bounceback against New England nudged the club back up to its pre-Week 11 percentage. After losing to the Cowboys, a very small window was opened for the Lions and Packers but closed again after Week 12.

A foundational, historic, and unthinkable collapse would be needed for the Vikings not to win the division.

Sportsbooks = 99.0%

Change from Last Week = No change

Minnesota’s odds per sportsbooks of reaching the postseason stayed the same after Week 12, as the Vikings stand atop the NFC North while Green Bay and Detroit fight for second place. For Detroit to win the division, the Vikings must go 0-6, while the Lions finish 6-0.

The Vikings playoff moneyline right now is -10000. = 99%

Change from Last Week = No change

This site leans heavier on wins’ and losses’ impact on the postseason. It doesn’t factor in predictive, intuitive measures like FiveThirtyEight. It considers the Vikings sure-fire playoff participants. According to the site, the Vikings are the third most-likely franchise to reach the postseason behind the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. When the season began, the site listed the Vikings at 43%.

The Vikings take on the Jets in Week 13 at U.S. Bank Stadium. Minnesota is an early three-point favorite.

Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).