How much would it cost the Vikings to acquire Deshaun Watson via trade?
AJ Mansour
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With news coming down the chute on Friday afternoon that Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson would not face criminal charges stemming from numerous allegations from massage the formerly tepid trade market for the embattled QB is now all anybody in the league can talk about.
For the 12 or so teams that are still in need of a quarterback, or at least presume that they could benefit from an upgrade, the talks are heavy. When the league starts playing “fantasy football general manager” much the way that it did last week with big names being shuffled around the country, fans will follow suit.
And the Minnesota Vikings are in the mix.
According to reports, the Minnesota Vikings are on the short list of teams that could land Watson’s services from the Texans. If you expand that list out a little further and factor in the betting odds which often seem to be eerily accurate, the Vikings are sitting on the outside of that shortlist with 12/1 odds, but they’re still in the mix.
So what would it cost to land Watson’s services from the Texans?
We have to start with an organizational assessment of the Houston Texans. A team in full-out rebuild mode the Texans are all of the sudden the cat’s meow holding the asset that everyone else is clamoring for. For the ownership, there’s likely a little bitterness involved. At one point, they thought they had the next big thing in Watson, their franchise quarterback for the next ten years. There are frustrations and feelings involved with such a sudden shift in long-term outlook, that may run the compensation up a bit. Also remember that very recently the Houston Texans were the laughing stock of the league. After former head coach and general manager Bill O’Brien did everything in his ability to dismantle a rising Texans team through terrible trade, all the while leaving the cupboards completely bare, they’re on the look out to rehash their losses. Other rebuilding teams like the Jets and Eagles have multiple first round picks this season and the Texans will be looking for the same.
Now on to the player at hand…
There are a couple of factors when it comes to the cost of acquiring Deshaun Watson that we need to talk about here. We’ll get the first one out of the way early as it’s mainly a throw away for the Vikings, his salary. Coming from a situation where you are about to owe Kirk Cousins $45 million for the 2022 season, the $35 million cap hit for Watson in 2022 is not a concern in the slightest.
To be completely honest, what remains on Watson’s contract is one of the more attractive aspects of the scenario. With the amount of money being thrown around right now throughout the league, Cousins included, to see a $32 million cap-hit on ledger for 2024 and 2025 is a sight for sore eyes. If all goes well for Watson he’d be looking to renegotiate the deal about that time, but if all is going well for Watson, all is probably going well for the team that signed him as well.
On to the other cost, the compensation needed to acquire him via trade from the Texans. Remember, the Texans were originally looking for THREE first round picks in return for Watson when talks began last offseason and into the season. But the current market set last week by the Denver Broncos acquiring Russell Wilson (two 1sts, two 2nds a 5th and three players), where does the market get set for Watson? He’s younger & under contract for four seasons, but he’s also far less accomplished and there are questions surrounding suspensions from the league and how he bounces back after a full season out of the league. It’s all a matter of opinion, but the current leading assumptions are that Texans general manager Nick Caserio is going to open the bidding with the three first round picks conversation once again.
With so many teams in the mix, there’s also the consideration that Deshaun Watson has a full no-trade clause built into his current contract, so he has some say in this decision as well. He won’t be a willing participant in a trade to a team with a bleak outlook.
So the landing point for the Watson compensation is likely similar to what the Seahawks got for Wilson; two 1sts, two 2nds and some players thrown into the mix.
And then there’s the hidden factor that isn’t really hidden, but more so overlooked by football fans with Lombardi’s running through their dreams. Acquiring Watson, specifically paying a high price for him, will also come with some backlash. On Friday, it was decided that there was not enough evidence to file criminal charges against Watson for his actions with the massage therapists. That doesn’t mean that nothing happened, that doesn’t mean he’s guilty, it doesn’t mean he’s not guilty. There are still 23 civil suits outstanding. There could still be punishment of some sort levied by the NFL. In the cost/benefit analysis of this move the Vikings need to also factor in how much this move could cost them in the court of public opinion? Season ticket holders could back out, sponsors could back out, it’s will need to be addressed, it will need to be factored in when the final decision is made.
Sadly, we know this last point is but an afterthought and the first time that Watson “wows” on the field, all will be forgiven off of it, but it needs to be considered because in a very big way it does matter.
So what do you think? He’ll cost some money against the cap, he’ll cost a lot of draft capital and then there are other factors as well…Do you think he’s worth it? Do you think the Vikings should be interested?
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