The GM’s View: Keys to Vikings beating the Bears on Monday Night
Vikings Insider, The GM’s View
Before the Vikings and their fans look at the Bears’ 4-9 record and become overconfident heading into the key Monday night matchup, here are a few words of caution.
First of all, it’s an NFC North rivalry game so records usually go out the window (see the Minnesota loss at Detroit two weeks ago).
Then factor in that the Bears have been a big thorn in the Vikings’ side recently, which Matt Nagy’s 5-1 record against Mike Zimmer confirms. Chicago has dealt late season fatal blows to Minnesota’s playoff chances twice in the past three years—including a 33-27 Week 15 win in Minnesota last year behind David Montgomery’s 146 yard (and 2 TDs) rushing day as the Bears went on to claim the final NFC playoff spot.
Worse yet was Chicago’s 24-10 win—again in Minnesota with most of the Bears starters out in the second half – in the final game of the 2018 season with a playoff spot on the line for the Purple (Chicago already had clinched the division title and had locked in their seed).
Vikings optimists can point to the team’s 19-13 win at Soldier Field in Week 9 last season, also on a Monday night. The Vikings defense shut down Nick Foles and the Bears offense, limiting them to 149 total yards while Kirk Cousins passed for 292 yards and two TDs, including the key fourth quarter game-winner to Adam Thielen while Justin Jefferson had eight receptions for 135 yards.
And that was with Vikings-killers Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks playing on defense. Mack is now out for the year while Hicks has missed four straight games with an ankle injury. Further damaging to the Chicago D is the hamstring injury that forced leading tackler Roquan Smith (130 tackles and 3 sacks) out of last week’s loss at Green Bay and he will likely be questionable for Monday night.
Monday’s game, the first of two meetings in the final four weeks, is at windy Soldier Field and 30s are in the forecast, not exactly favorable weather for Minnesota’s No. 7 ranked passing offense. So a repeat performance by Dalvin Cook may be needed after his 205 yard rushing game against the Steelers last week.
The Vikings will hope they see the Bears team that wilted in the second half last Sunday night when they were outscored 24-3 after lighting up the Pack to the tune of 247 yards on offense and a 27-21 halftime lead. Likewise, the Bears would love to see the Purple gang that played poorly down the stretch against the Steelers and almost blew the 29-0 third quarter lead.
Here are my keys to the Vikings beating the Bears:
1. Feed a hot Dalvin Cook as the running game is key: again considering a likely cold and windy night, the fact that the Bears are ranked No. 24 against the rush and Cook and the Vikings’ run blockers are coming off a tremendous game. Cook will likely carry the load with Alexander Mattison on the Covid list although this might be time for rookie Kene Nwangwu to make an impact as a runner after his terrific season on kickoff returns. Look for more of Blake Brandel as a sixth offensive lineman/extra tight end after he did a nice job blocking in his limited role against Pittsburgh.
2. Pass protect and work the play action game: Chicago is ranked No. 8 against the pass and is second in the league (behind the Vikings) with 36 sacks (although Aaron Rodgers just torched them for 341 yards and 4 TDs).
I’m concerned about Cousins when he faces pressure that was a problem late against the Steelers. The Vikings’ backs and tight ends will need to chip on edge rusher Robert Quinn (14 sacks) to help the tackles. A return of tackle Christian Darrisaw from his ankle injury would be helpful so Oli Udoh can go back to his usual guard spot.
The offensive line must lead a solid running attack and then pass protect for play action shots down field to Jefferson, K.J. Osborn and hopefully Thielen if he returns from his ankle injury. Rodgers killed the Bears on play action and the Vikings surely will try to do the same.
3. Go to Tyler Conklin: the Bears defense had trouble containing Green Bay’s tight end Marcedes Lewis who caught four passes for 51 yards. Cousins must not get overly locked in on Jefferson as he did with a few forced throws last week and should look for Conklin who has had a breakout year with 49 receptions for 489 yards and 3 TDs.
4. Stop the run, including QB scrambles: Chicago’s passing game is dead last in the league and rookie quarterback Justin Fields ranks 30th in passer rating as he comes off a three turnover game. He did make some big plays throwing (two long TD passes) and running (74 rushing yards) against the Packers. But Nagy will surely try to protect his rookie QB–who is battling a rib injury– against the Vikings pass rush with a heavy dose of Montgomery runs against Minnesota’s No. 27 rush defense as he did successfully last December. The Vikings also must watch for the QB bootlegs that Nagy loves to run against them.
The key formula for Zimmer will be to stop the run, pressure Fields with the front four and lots of blitzes and have his linebackers spy against the QB scrambles that have hurt the Vikings against the Bears when they faced Mitch Trubisky in recent years. The Bears have given up 42 sacks, second worst in the league and played two rookie tackles last week (after Jason Peters hurt his ankle) so there should be plenty of sack opportunities against the rookie QB and his shaky O-line.
5. Corners must be better: the Minnesota corners were whipped by the Pittsburgh receivers in the fourth quarter after the ugly finish in Detroit for Cam Dantzler. With Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers and so many terrific receivers on the Rams and Packers upcoming, this is a good week for the secondary and the corners in particular to gain some confidence. But they need to beware of the Bears receiving talent led by Darnell Mooney. Allen Robinson has had a down year but Damiere Byrd and Jakeem Grant had long run-after-catch TDs last week and Cole Kmet is an effective tight end.
6. Finish: the Vikings finally shut a team down at the end of the first half but the fourth quarter was ugly for the most part the past two games until Harrison Smith’s great breakup to clinch the Steeler win. Minnesota must be strong at crunch time on both sides of the ball if they want to be a playoff team.
7. Cold weather should mean some kickoff return opportunities for Nwangwu and big returns can go a long way towards victory. But that works both ways as Chicago’s Jakeem Grant had the NFL’s first punt return TD this season on his 97-yarder last week while Khalil Herbert returned a kickoff 42 yards. So it is key that the Vikings coverage teams continue their fine play against the Bears. Booming kicks and punts from Greg Joseph and Jordan Berry will help the cause as well.
8. Covid concern: both teams are in enhanced Covid protocols this week as the virus rages across the sports world. That means daily testing and all meetings are virtual or in large open spaces but practices are normal. With six players currently on the Covid list, Zimmer will nervously await kickoff and hope he can get players such as Mattison and Dede Westbrook back while no more players test positive. The Bears’ stout nose tackle Eddie Goldman is on Covid-Reserve along with several other players so this also is an area of concern for Chicago
Jeff’s Prediction: As usual, it won’t be easy but I see the Vikings as the healthier team with more to play for. On offense, Cook should have another big game while Cousins and Jefferson will hook up enough times and perhaps Conklin will have a big night. Zimmer loves going against rookie QBs and the front seven on defense should get the best of the Bears O-line. In another one score game, Minnesota wins 27-20.
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Around the NFL Observations:
1. With four games remaining, there are five NFC teams at 6-7 and tied for the last playoff spot, including the Vikings. Two of these teams meet Sunday with Washington at Philadelphia. Other key games are 7-6 San Francisco hosting 6-7 Atlanta and the Saints at the Bucs. It’s looking like the Vikings will need to win at least three of their final four games to make the postseason.
2. Minnesota’s next opponent—the 9-4 Rams off their big win at Arizona—have 13 players currently on the Covid list including star corner Jalen Ramsey and receiver Odell Beckham. They have a home game against Seattle this Sunday.
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl
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