Why the Vikings Should Make the Playoffs This Season
Jonathan Haak
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The bye week is over, and that means Minnesota Vikings football is back next week. A lot has been made regarding the Vikings’ next four games, about how this is a season-defining stretch and yada yada. While this is absolutely true, the narrative that if the Vikings don’t go at least 2-2 in these next four games, they’ll miss the playoffs, is false.
Upcoming games against the Cowboys, Ravens, Chargers, and Packers will test Minnesota. They will likely provide valuable information on whether the Vikings will be capable of doing anything once they make the playoffs. But outside of going 0-4 over the next four games, the Vikings chances of making the playoffs will remain strong. Why? Because outside of the top five teams (AZ/GB/DAL/TB/LAR), the NFC is bad!
If you’ve been paying attention, you’ll know that the Vikings’ thrilling win in Carolina Week 6 put them into playoff position, and Week 7 did nothing to change that with Chicago and San Francisco both losing. Minnesota is currently the #7 seed behind the Rams and Saints and narrowly ahead of the Atlanta Falcons, with Chicago and Carolina trailing further behind. Sam Darnold looks terrible, and Minnesota’s Week 6 win over Carolina also handed them the head-to-head tiebreaker, so for the sake of this article, we will consider Minnesota finishing in better playoff position than the Panthers to be a formality.
This leaves us with four teams – Saints, Vikings, Falcons, and Bears – fighting for two playoff spots. So, let’s look at each team one by one in order of their current playoff position.
1. New Orleans Saints ( 3-2 )
The Saints are somewhat of an enigma this season as you never know which version of Jameis Winston you’re going to get. This is a team that has annihilated the juggernaut Packers and blew out a scrappy Patriots squad, but then has been blown out by the Panthers and has given the Giants one of their two wins. The Saints schedule might not be as tough as the Vikings schedule going forward, but they still have to play the Bucs twice, Falcons twice, plus the Bills and Titans from the AFC. Yikes.
2. Minnesota Vikings ( 3-3 )
As Vikings fans, we know that this team is weird. It seems they can be basically as good or as bad as they want to be on any given Sunday. This really can’t be illustrated more clearly than missing a chip shot field goal that would have beaten the NFC-best Arizona Cardinals, and then a few weeks later making a long field goal to avoid defeat against the winless Lions. The Vikings have an elite QB, elite WRs, and [what seems to be] an above-average defense.
The primary issues keeping them from joining NFCs elite are offensive line consistency and coaching. As for schedule the rest of the way, it’s really not that bad after the upcoming four-game stretch. It looked a lot worse a few weeks ago when the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers looked like strong teams, but now those games look extremely winnable.
3. Atlanta Falcons ( 3-3 )
At first look, the 3-3 Falcons can seem like a scrappy squad with a good chance of fighting for the playoffs. They have ‘ol reliable Matty Ice, a resurgent Coordarrele Patterson, who is somehow the best running back and wide receiver on the team, and the new and exciting TE Kyle Pitts. But it turns out this view of the Falcons is a complete facade. This Falcons team was 1-3 before winning one-possession games against the single win Jets and Dolphins over the last two weeks. They were blown out badly by Bucs and Eagles, and their three wins have a combined record of 4-16.
This is not a team to be afraid of going forward. The defense is terrible, and their offense is inconsistent. While they may be able to pick up close wins against teams among the worst in the NFL, they still have to play the Saints twice, among games against the Cowboys, Bucs, Bills, and Patriots.
4. Chicago Bears ( 3-4 )
Last but not least (or maybe least, who knows ), we have the Chicago Bears. The Bears are a very interesting and potentially scary team. It’s easy to look at Justin Fields’ performances against the Browns and Bucs and say: “Oh, this team is garbage. They have no chance,” but this same Bears team handed losses to the 5-2 Raiders and Bengals, two of the better teams in the AFC.
Chicago’s defense isn’t nearly as strong as the defenses of the last few seasons that the Bears had that have given Kirk Cousins and the Vikings absolute fits,. But it’s not a bad defense either and is capable of shutting down some efficient offenses. Looking ahead for the Bears, they have a relatively easy schedule but have to face the Packers again, along with the Cardinals, Ravens, and both games remain against the previously mentioned Vikings squad.
Analysis:
Honestly, I don’t see any way both the Saints and the Falcons finish with a record above .500. They both play a decently solid schedule and have to face each other twice. My money is on the Saints to run away with one of the two remaining wild card spots, as I think they are the best-coached team of the teams discussed here, and they have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. While on the opposite end, I think the Falcons collapse and finish with around 6-7 total wins.
That leaves the Vikings and Bears fighting for the last wild card spot in the NFC, and this is tough.
Earlier, I said the Vikings performance over the next four games doesn’t really matter for making the playoffs, and here is why: The only thing that matters is finishing above the rival Bears. If the Vikings win both head-to-head matchups with Chicago, they will make the playoffs.
I am absolutely confident in this prediction.
This would give them two wins and 2 Bears losses, along with securing the vital playoff tiebreaker over the Bears. Will they win both of those games? The Vikings are the better team with the better quarterback, that much is clear, but the Bears are always scary. So while Minnesota should win those head-to-head matchups and advance to the playoffs this season, I won’t be taking deep and relaxed breathes until those games end with the Vikings on top.
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