Vikings Playoff Odds Take Mighty Tumble with Loss to CLE
The 2021 Minnesota Vikings are a whirlwind in motion.
Foremost, the franchise resembled rubbish in the first half of the Week 1 game at the Cincinnati Bengals. But when the game was on the line, the Vikings put themselves in a position to win the game – and didn’t. A controversial fumble was lost, and on to 0-1 the team floundered.
Then, more of the same – sort of – the following week. Minnesota hung tough with the Arizona Cardinals – a team that appears to be the best in the NFL after four weeks – losing on a basic, ordinary, simple field goal. That was the fault of Greg Joseph. Minnesota’s offense hummed, the defense floundered, and the special teams ruined the late-afternoon affair.
The Seattle Seahawks and their domineering ways were next on the docket. Somehow, Minnesota solved them somewhat handily, scoring 23 unanswered points while toppling Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll 30-17. All was right in the world. The defense would soon figure out its malfunctions and join the high-powered offense in harmony.
But against the Cleveland Browns at U.S. Bank Stadium, the offense was embarrassing. Surprise, surprise – the defense finally arrived, stifling Baker Mayfield on nearly every drive. So, it was the usual gig that besets entire seasons for the Vikings. The defense was good; the offense was not (2014, 2015, 2016). Recently in 2020 and 2021, the inverse is evident – the offense is good, the defense is not. It’s as if once-in-a-blue-moon is the standard for all facets aligning in unison. And, yes, that is a reflection of the coaching staff.
Minnesota possesses all of the roster tools to field a team with tremendous offensive weapons and defensive ones. They just don’t do it in tandem. Whether or not Mike Zimmer can place two competent branches of football onto the field in the remainder of 2021 will determine his job status for 2022.
Why? Because the Vikings postseason aspirations tumble with every loss that floods the NFC North standings. Since the Green Bay Packers looked moronic in Week 1 versus the New Orleans Saints, they have not lost. They’re 3-1, whereas the Vikings are 1-3. Minnesota needed to be at least 2-2 to keep fans’ faith in good graces.
Instead, the Vikings playoff probability is plummeting like a zeppelin. Before Week 4, Minnesota had a 39% chance to reach the postseason per FiveThirtyEight.com.
Not anymore.
That dropped by 14% due to the defecation against the Browns, placing Minnesota in the 25% category to play meaningful January football. It’s the same earth occupied by the Washington Football Team, Chicago Bears, and New England Patriots. Not ideal.
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Historically, just 14.2% of NFL teams reach the postseason after a 1-3 start. That stat is from 1990 to present, which was when the league expanded to six teams per conference for the playoffs. On average, teams that begin a season 1-3 usually finish 6-10.
Ask yourself, do these Vikings feel like a playoff team or a 6-10 team? The answer to that question will tell you if Zimmer is employed by Minnesota next year.
If you’re an eternal optimist, the 2001 New England Patriots started 1-3 with Drew Bledsoe – and won the Super Bowl with newbie Tom Brady.
Perhaps the Vikings just need the infant version of Tom Brady to right the ship.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. He hosts a podcast with Bryant McKinnie, which airs every Wednesday with Raun Sawh and Sally from Minneapolis. His Viking fandom dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ and The Doors (the band).